DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
All of my plays make sense for the entire DFS industry; however, if there is an egregious discrepancy in player salary between sites, I will mention it in my briefing.
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
DFS NHL Slate Overview:
Relatively tiny slate tonight, with a few expensive options tonight, as well as one significantly underpriced stack that I will go over for you guys tonight. I will also go over how to make one of my favorite expensive stacks tonight both potentially cheaper and more contrarian.
Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Correlated Snipe #1
Johnathan Huberdeau – Claude Giroux – Mackenzie Weegar or Gustav Forsling
I will start with 2 very obvious statements. The Buffalo Sabres are nowhere near as good as the Florida Panthers, and even though I like Sam Bennett, there is a sneakier way with a higher floor to stack Huberdeau and Giroux. Mackenize Weegar directs traffic on the first powerplay unit for the Panthers with Ekblad out, which correlates perfectly with Huberdeau and Giroux. I have Forsling as a second option, because he is a significant salary reduction from Weegar, and even though he is not on the top powerplay unit, he is on the second one, and is still a very active offensive defenseman for the Panthers. Huberdeau has been on fire this season and is trying to put himself out there to try to get nominated for the Hart trophy; and, Giroux is reaping those benefits as well, because Huberdeau is the assist king (all time record for assists in a single season by a left winger), and Giroux will be trying to score goals and have fun (which is exactly what he’s been doing).
Correlated Snipe #2
Sebastian Aho – Andrei Svechnikov – Seth Jarvis
The New York Islanders are a scrappy team with crappy goaltending and nowhere near enough fire-power to hang with the Carolina Hurricanes (in theory). I really like the Hurricanes in this game, so why not roster their top line? Aho and Svechnikov are finally playing together again and it is a beautiful thing to see. Svechnikov loves to shoot that puck and score goals, and Aho is dynamic enough to be able to find him in creative ways. If you want to get super sneaky and kind of cute and unnecessary you can play the Vincent Trocheck, Max Domi, Teuvo Teraveinen line; but Aho/Svechnikov has the highest ceiling in my humble opinion. With all of the Avalanche and Lightning big guns in play on this slate, Carolina becomes that high upside stack at a noticeable salary discount. The Islanders are old and slow this year, with underwhelming everything on the defensive side, so I’m gambling on Rod Brind’Amour’s team; they never take shifts off.
If you want to freshen up your 2021-22 cash and tourney strategy skills, read “How to Win DFS NHL in 2022.”
Hard Pass
The Blues/Wild game
Other than Kaprizov, I have no idea where the goals will be coming from in this game. Both teams have solid defenses, very good goaltending, and deep forward groups; which means that the goals can come from anywhere. I expect a playoff type game that will be a slugfest, which is great in general, but not for fantasy production.
Save research time with our easy-to-read NHL Cheatsheets! Core plays, tourney leverage, correlated stacks, and extreme goalie plays set up your night differently than your competition.
NHL Grinder Value Plays
Grinder #1
Gustav Forsling- The Panthers defensemen in general are super aggressive and with good reason; their team is fearless. Forsling is one of those guys that is stepping up with Ekblad out for the regular season. Look at his game log; Forsling is throwing pucks towards the net, isn’t afraid to block a puck, and is in a fast-paced, high-octane game.
Grinder#2
Victor Olofsson – With 5 points in his last 4 games, and Florida playing a crazy version of the sport we call hockey, there could be a high ceiling for the young swede. Olofsson is what I would call a budget sniper, and a fairly decent one; the Sabres would love to keep his momentum going, because he should have a big impact on Buffalo’s immediate future.
Good luck, I hope you all come in 2nd. 😉
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