DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down which 2022 running backs are falling in best ball drafts, but can still provide incredible value. ADP’s as of 04/25/2022.
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Nov 14, 2021; Landover, Maryland, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) hands the ball off to Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette (7) against the Washington Football Team at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Best Ball ADP (78.4)
Going as the 25th running back off the board in best ball, Leonard Fournette has the most value out of this entire group. In the last three seasons Fournette has finished inside of the top-10 at his poison twice. In 2021, he finished as the RB7 overall, in only 14 games, and averaged 15.8-FPPG.
From weeks 4 – 15, Fournette finished with 18-FPPG which was only behind Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. Fournette was able to flex his ceiling prowess during this stretch as well. He ended one-week with an incredible 40.6-fantasy points, plus added weekly finishes of 27.7 and 21.2.
Looking at 2022’s outlook, Fournette’s fantasy projections spiked once Ronald Jones left for greener pastures. Additionally, there is not a formidable backup on roster currently. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has been on the roster for several seasons and has done little with his opportunities. Giovani Bernard is a touchdown vulture, but is far from being a threat to Fournette’s production.
There is injury risk with selecting Fournette but in a best ball format it can be tolerated. He has yet to play a full schedule for an NFL team. Do not avoid Fournette because of this, just be sure to understand his injury history for depth purposes.
On a super bowl contending team, inside a division that Tampa Bay likely mows over, scoring opportunities will be plentiful for Fournette in 2022. Fournette is a fringe top-10 running back as it currently stands. He presents the most best ball value at the running back position.
Check out the Top-3 Value Picks at QB for Best Ball
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals – Best Ball ADP (93.3)
Conner had a banner fantasy year in 2021. He finished as the RB5 overall and averaged 16-FPPG across 15 games. Despite this finish, and no backup to threaten him, Conner is going as the RB29 in best ball drafts.
His stellar fantasy season in 2021 was propelled by his nose for the end zone. His top-three weeks were Week 9 when he scored 37.8-fantasy points, Week 14 with 29-points and Week 18 with 24.3-fantasy points.
The Cardinals clearly favored Conner when they got close to the end zone, that should continue into 2022. Conner was second amongst his position with 29 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard-line. The Cardinals’ running back also had the second-most rushing attempts inside the five-yard-line, which was 19.
As of right now Conner is the main attraction for Arizona’s running game. Last year’s most notable backup to Conner was Chase Edmonds, who departed to Miami after the conclusion of the season. Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward both remain on the roster. Neither has achieved much with their opportunities. Nevertheless, expect the Cardinals to sprinkle in usage of Benjamin and Ward as well.
The biggest risks with taking Conner comes down to two things: injury history and touchdown dependency. Conner has never played a full season of football inside his five-year career. Therefore expect him to miss no fewer than two-to-three games. In addition, he scored 18 total touchdowns last season. You would be wise to expect that number to come down but barring a big alteration in his red zone usage, Conner should continue to get high-value opportunities around the goal line.
Conner is a borderline top-12 running back in fantasy football. Going as the RB29 makes him a huge target for best ball value.
Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills – Best Ball ADP (75)
The 2022 outlook for Devin Singletary quickly changed at the end of the 2021 season. From weeks 15 – 18, Singletary was the RB2 overall and averaged 19.9-FPPG. During that time frame, Singletary put up 15.6, 13.8, 23 and 23.2-fantasy points, respectively. Singletary’s dominant stretch propelled him towards an RB20 overall finish in 2021, while averaging 10.5-FPPG.
As a member of a premiere NFL offense, Singletary is going as the 24th running back off the board in best ball. This is behind 2022 rookie Breece Hall, Michael Carter and Travis Etienne (never played an NFL game).
Looking at the current depth chart of Buffalo, Zack Moss’s production really fell off a cliff at the end of 2021. Moss had 13 touches per game from weeks 1 – 8, but in weeks 9 – 18 he averaged 5.8 touches per game. Furthermore, the Buffalo coaches made Moss a healthy scratch several times down the stretch last season. Newly signed Duke Johnson may eat into Singletary’s third-down work and obvious passing situations, but it should not alter Singletary’s outlook.
The risks with Singletary are worth the price of admission given his current best ball ADP. Of course, we must assume that Singletary will be the RB1 of Buffalo for the entire season. Which presents the first big question mark: will the Bills draft a running back; And if so, how early? Currently, oddsmakers have 5-to-1 odds that Buffalo will select a running back in the first round. This is the largest risk in drafting Singletary and it would devalue him towards his current RB24 ADP in best ball.
Unless the Bills select a high-end running back in the rookie draft, Singletary is a steal at his current best ball price. Assuming the depth chart remains intact, Singletary should be viewed as a borderline top-12 running back. The thought of pairing him with another safe, top-end, fantasy running back is very tempting and could be a lethal combination.
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
Best Ball:
Early Redraft Rankings:
- QB rankings 1-12
- RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12
- WR rankings 1-6 and WR rankings 7-12
- TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.
