Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Apr 2, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Miami Heat guard Max Strus (31) Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
James Harden Over 22.5pts
PHI vs IND
Taco Tuesday! There are not a lot of players available at the time I am writing this. As the board fills up throughout the day, make sure to check our discord for the updated picks. Harden has not been scoring at the same volume that we would expect him to ever since being traded to Philadelphia. He is the point guard so he is setting up his teammates a lot more than looking for his own shot. 22.5 is right for how he is playing. It does seem doable when factoring in the matchup. Indiana is tanking. They sometimes use the minimum of eight players needed to play a full game. Despite this, they play their opponents close. Their last four games all were within single digits. Their opponents were Atlanta, Boston, Denver, and Detroit. Tyrese Haliburton is keeping his squad in these games. If this is indeed the case again, this game should be high-scoring. Indiana has allowed 132, 125, 128, and 121 points. The 76ers are going to put up a lot of points today.
Even though Indiana has stayed competitive recently, it would not surprise anyone if they were to get blown out. If you believe this will happen, take Harden’s 1h only 11.5pt line. I prefer the full game because of how his rotations work. Harden checks out midway through the 1st and 3rd quarters so at least one of Joel Embiid or Harden can be on the court at all times. He could check in as early as the start of the 4th to play his second 2nd half stint. Unless this game is really out of hand, he should get enough mins to hit the over. He is shooting poorly right now including only making 2FGs last week against Phoenix. He still put up 14pts due to his foul drawing ability. This is a get-right spot for the former MVP. Indiana simply cannot stop anyone. Hopefully, we see the scoring side of him tonight.
Andre Drummond 1h Over 18fpts
BKN vs HOU
There are some players that the 1st half only line is the better pick than the full game one. Drummond fits that description. He plays two stints in the first half but sometimes only one in the second. Brooklyn will use Nicolas Claxton and James Johnson to close games at times. That is certainly possibly tonight against Houston. Alperen Sengun is not exactly the type of matchup that is going to make Steve Nash put Drummond out there for a long time. Drummond played 28mins against Milwaukee because they needed size. Since that second rotation in the 2nd half is not a guarantee, I prefer the 1st half only line.
Houston allows the most FDpts (since PrizePicks uses FD scoring), to opposing centers this season. They also have allowed the most in the last 15 games. Drummond can rack up defensive stats and this is one of the best spots to do so. The Rockets play at the 2nd fastest pace with the worst defensive efficiency in the league. They turn the ball over the most in the NBA. They allow the most blocks to opposing centers. It really does not get any better than this for Drummond. This does not need to happen but if the Rockets struggle shooting today, there will be a lot of rebounds to grab making it even easier for Drummond to rack up fantasy points. Houston has played well but they do have some significant home/road splits. Taking 1st half only also protects you from a blowout.
Anthony Edwards Over 4.5rebs
MIN vs WAS
Minnesota plays at the fastest pace in the league. That means no matter who they are playing, it will be a pace-down spot. Washington ranks 23rd in pace but their defense has fallen off. They are 25th in defensive efficiency. Kyle Kuzma is going to be out again. That should make things a little bit easier on the glass for the players who are playing in this game but that is not what really matters. Jarred Vanderbilt is a strong rebounder but his mins have been declining. Replacing Vanderbilt with Taurean Prince allows Edwards to crash the glass more. Edwards only had 7 rebounding chances last game. The game finished 139-132 so both teams were making a lot of shots. Besides Edwards, Towns, Reid, and Vanderbilt, no other Wolves player recorded more than 2 rebounds. That seems unlikely to happen again.
With Kuzma out, Vanderbilt’s defense will not be needed as much. Edwards had 0 rebounds in the 1st and 4th quarters last game. While he was on the court, Houston went on three runs, most notably an 18-4 run in the 4th quarter. Minnesota is playing at home where they should be on top of their game. They can move up from the 7th seed so there is something to play for. Washington is out and is 21-19 at home while 13-25 away. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Deni Avidija, Tomas Satoransky, and Ish Smith all are key pieces of this team who shoot significantly worse on the road. The Wizards are 19th in rebounding rate on the season. They would be in the bottom third of the league when factoring in Kuzma’s absence.
Zach Lavine Over 22.5pts
CHI vs MIL
This line is too low for what should be one of the better game environments tonight. I expect this 22.5 to possibly turn into 24 by the time this game tips off. Milwaukee has some elite defenders but they are a good fantasy matchup because of how fast they play. The Bucks actually rank 14th in defensive efficiency so they have not exactly been elite this season. They are tied for the 6th-fastest pace. Demar DeRozan has been the best player for Chicago this season. He can take over a game at any time. He probably will see some Giannis defense though. I do not expect the two to guard each other a lot because this seems like a spot for Patrick Williams to play more. Giannis will demand to defend the opponent’s best player so this would certainly help LaVine’s case.
Once again, Milwaukee is a three-point funnel defense. In two previous matchups this season against the Bucks, LaVine is 7-17 on 3s. He does not attempt double-digit threes a lot but this is definitely a spot for that to happen. DeRozan is back to taking threes but LaVine is the much better deep range threat. Chicago’s playoff seeding is not locked yet so they do have something to play for. In addition to an expected high volume of three-point attempts, LaVine should be able to get to the line too. He has been drawing a lot of fouls recently leading to double-digit free throw attempts. Those free points are going to help a lot and make things a lot easier if he can knock down his shots today.
Just missed the cut: James Harden 1h O11.5pts, DeAndre Hunter U14.5pts, Giannis Antetokounmpo O5asts, Zach LaVine O31.5pra
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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