NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 4/2/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG/SG Kyrie Irving $10300

BKN @ ATL

We only have 3 games for the main slate for this Saturday. The Heat and the Warriors are on the first leg of a back-to-back. It is possible that these two teams will rest players today. We will deal with that if that happens. These 6 teams all have something to play for. They are all playoff teams currently battling for seeding. This should be a lot easier to manage than Friday’s slate. Brooklyn and Atlanta are currently tied with the Hornets for the 8th seed. The Nets should keep playing their stars to build up chemistry now that Kyrie Irving is back full-time. Kevin Durant is the most expensive player today. He should be the highest-owned player out of the 3 guys priced in the 5 digits. Durant is miles above the other forwards today. Trae Young should come in 2nd as he is the better fantasy player than Irving. He does not have a KD on his team he has to defer to. This should make Irving the lowest-owned stud.

Durant missed two crucial shots vs Milwaukee on Thursday. It seemed like Irving wanted Durant to pass the ball and trust his teammates. We could see more of a playmaking KD today. There have been a few games this season where Durant will defer to Irving. Looking at the matchup today, this is a better spot for Irving. While Durant is unguardable, De’Andre Hunter is a solid defender. The Hawks likely will put Kevin Huerter on Kyrie Irving so Trae Young can guard Seth Curry. Irving has a much more exploitable matchup than Durant. It is usually never optimal to roster both Irving and Durant together. That means people who picked Durant will not have Irving. This is a simple leverage play that could pay off huge. Irving will get playing time with Durant off the floor as one of them is on the court at all times.

 

PG/SG Tyler Herro $6900

MIA @ CHI

Some of the Miami Heat players are priced very appealing today. Jimmy Butler is down to $8100. If people are not rostering Durant, they likely go to Butler. There is no Nikola Jokic or Bam Adebayo today but there are several mid-range options. This includes Bam Adebayo at $8000. Kyle Lowry is $5700 and has said that he will be looking for his shot more. This leaves Tyler Herro in between all of them. The sixth man plays a starter’s workload. Herro’s shot attempts are going to be there every game. He has attempted 14 or 15 shots in 4 straight games. While 10rebs is an outlier, he will not shoot 5-14 every game either. Chicago should put Alex Caruso on Lowry while Patrick Williams guards Jimmy Butler. Both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are not known for their defense. Herro should see a lot of them.

Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. Chicago is playing at the 16th-fastest. They are 21st in defensive efficiency, but that should improve with Caruso and Williams healthy. Since the Heat play at a snail’s pace, pretty much every game is a pace-up spot. This is a similar play to Irving. If his teammates are going to get the attention, roster the lower-owned guys. If Herro were to return greater value than Lowry, Butler, and Adebayo, that would not surprise anybody. Jordan Poole is $7200 at PG and should be one of the chalkier players. Since Herro is closely priced at the same position, he should be relatively low-owned for a 3 game slate. It is important to note that I would not fade all of Lowry, Butler, and Bam if Herro is in the lineup already. This is a 3 game slate so remember to be a lot more inclusive about the number of players from the same team.

 

SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic $6100

ATL vs BKN

Here is another player whose teammates should pick up heavy ownership. Trae Young is one of the few studs today which automatically drives up his ownership. Danilo Gallinari is $4800 at a weak PF position with John Collins out. De’Andre Hunter should be locked in for big minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble to guard Durant. That leaves Bogdanovic and Capela. I am going with Bogdanovic here because he can take fantasy points away from Young whereas Capela scores a lot of his points off of Young’s assists. Even with Collins out, Capela’s minutes have not been that appealing. Onyeka Okongwu is eating into Capela’s playing time. He is more mobile which makes him a sneaky play if he is low-owned in this spot. Okongwu is $3800 and has picked up some ownership recently so not sure how that is going to pan out. Okongwu should guard Irving and Durant better than Capela can in those pick and rolls.

Bogdanovic is basically Atlanta’s Tyler Herro. He is their sixth man and takes a healthy amount of shots. Ignore the last two games as the Hawks blew their opponents out resulting in only 22mins for Bogdanovic. He is a very crafty player. Out of the three games today, this one is the most appealing. Those other two should be more defensive battles. These two teams are playing for the higher seed. Both of them do not have to be in a do-or-die situation when it comes to the play-in tournament. This could force Bogdanovic into some heavy minutes. He could play two rotations where he checks in midway thru the 1st and 3rd quarters and finishes both halves. Taking just Collins off the floor this season, Bogdanovic has a 24.5% usage rate averaging 1.07FPM. That is a 2.7% usage increase and 0.13 more FPM. He is their 2nd best player so Atlanta is going to want him out there as much as possible.

 

SF/PF Otto Porter Jr. $4200

GSW vs UTA

Honestly, who knows what the Warriors are doing right now. I would not say they are in trouble but things certainly do not look good ever since Stephen Curry went down. They are currently 3rd in the west but could fall quite a bit if they keep losing. Steve Kerr said he wanted Kevon Looney to come off the bench so it was easier to stagger his and Draymond Green’s minutes. Then, Looney started on Wednesday. Maybe this was based on the matchup against Deandre Ayton. Looney should start again tonight then against Rudy Gobert if it was matchup dependent. This really hurts Golden State’s floor spacing though so expect Green to close at center. This allows them to put a wing out there which could be Otto Porter Jr. Jonathan Kuminga looks like he is going to be a great player one day but Kerr does not trust the rookie right now. Andre Iguodala returned and that left only 5mins for Kuminga.

Porter is a 3&D player but he is contributing big time in the rebounding category. Since Looney does not play many minutes, Porter is crashing the glass hard to help Green rebound. If Green is matched up with Gobert, he likely focuses more on boxing out than actually grabbing the board. This is similar to the Bucks with how Brook Lopez boxes out so Giannis can grab boards. This is why Porter has had multiple double-digit rebounding games recently. They are not a fluke. Golden State is a small team. Someone has to grab the missed shots so Porter has been that guy. He is not a lock to close games but should be the most likely candidate to do so. He is their best option ahead of Kuminga, Iguodala, and Looney right now.

 

Just missed the cut: Clint Capela, Kyle Lowry, Nicholas Claxton, Onyeka Okongwu, Kevon Looney, P.J. Tucker, Andre Iguodala, Patty Mills

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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