Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 04/6:
Mar 15, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving (11) dribbles against the Orlando Magic during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -10.0
We’ll kick this slate kicked off with the Mavericks, it’ll be hard not to like Luka Doncic tonight. He has at least 67 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and has already dropped 65 fantasy points on the Pistons once this season. He’ll look like one of the better spend-up options in a great matchup. Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are fine secondary GPP options, but as long as Luke is in there they will be guys I’m underweight on. There’s only so much usage and Luka demands a lot of it. Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock aren’t big usage guys but will play big minutes if you need a forward in the mid-range. Then we can round this team out with Dwight Powell who had a big game last time out and gets a great matchup against this Detroit frontcourt. From the Pistons, they’ll continue to be without Marvin Bagley, Jerami Grant, Cory Joseph, and Kelly Olynyk meaning we should get guys like Killian Hayes and Isaiah Livers in the starting lineup for likely the rest of their season. Livers is a fine option and has at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games, I wouldn’t expect that to change here. Hayes followed up his massive game against the Thunder with a bit of a down game last time out but will be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Detroit decided they were going to pull their starters at halftime which is why he saw his minutes get cut… Cade Cunningham is probably risky since they have no reason to push him, but assuming he sees his normal run, he’ll look like a good option. The same can be said for Saddiq Bey, but predicting minutes for this team right now is close to impossible. Lastly, I do think Braxton Key is worth a shot at his price tag, his minutes should be pretty locked in.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Livers, Isaiah Stewart
Deeper Value: Braxton Key
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Livers, Saddiq Bey, Braxton Key
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win on Tuesday night! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -7.5
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant had a down game last night after a massive game against the Hawks. I’ll have no issue going right back to him here, he has a great floor/ceiling combo and they’re incentivized to get this team clicking. Kyrie Irving stole the show for the Nets last night as his shot finally began to fall. He’s played at least 40 minutes in five straight games and is a guy I have no problem going right back to here. Andre Drummond has been pretty consistent as of late and would be a guy I’m fine with getting to if you need a mid-range center, he has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Then we can round this team out with Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton as secondary GPP guys on a shorter slate. From the Knicks, Julius Randle will miss the rest of the regular season, meaning we’ll get Obi Toppin in the starting lineup to close up shop. Below is how this team operates with Randle and Derrick Rose off of the court this season:
- Obi Toppin – 20.1% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Alec Burks – 21.6% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 34.1% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 11.7% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Evan Fournier – 20.5% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team, particularly Toppin and Barrett who should benefit the most with Randle being out. Not to mention, it’s a great matchup with the Nets in this one. I will mention that Immanuel Quickley has been in great form and has at least 30 minutes in three of his last five games and will look like a solid option again here.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, RJ Barrett
4-star play: Andre Drummond, Obi Toppin, Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, Nic Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier, Immanuel Quickley
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -7.5
Starting with the Celtics, it sounds like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford will all be good to go in this one. These two teams are just playing for seeding right now, so it’s to be determined how seriously either of them will take this one, but I’ll operate under the assumption that everyone gets their usual run. Tatum has been in great form with at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and the Bulls aren’t playing a whole lot of defense right now. Brown is in similarly great form and will be a guy I go right back to as well. Horford seems to have found a groove as well, he’ll look like a solid secondary option with Robert Williams continued to be out. Then Marcus Smart and Derrick White will be more of GPP options than anything with these guys all healthy. If I’m playing one of them it would be Smart due to the minutes security, with that said. If you want to try and determine who will have the big night between Daniel Theis and Grant Williams, go for it, but don’t do it in cash games, leave that kind of risk for tournaments. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan started really slow last night but picked it up in a big way to drop a 50 burger in a loss to the Bucks. I like going back to him at this price tag, especially if Zach LaVine ends up missing again, as I will assume he comes in as questionable after missing last night’s game. If LaVine does play, he’ll look like a fine GPP option as this Celtics defense takes a hit as a whole with Williams out. Nikola Vucevic had a rough go of it last night as he got into quick foul trouble, but is averaging 46 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Celtics this season. Alex Caruso will look like a fine mid-range option, but I’m not sure how much we’ll need him here. Finally, Patrick Williams has at least 24 FanDuel points in three straight games and is a guy they want to get going before the playoffs start and is a very interesting value option tonight.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Al Horford, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Daniel Theis, Grant Williams, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Coby White
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -10.0
Starting with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma will continue to be out for Washington here, below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Kristaps Porzingis – 32.9% usage rate; 1.50 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 18.5% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Rui Hachimura – 21.2% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 22.6% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Wizards, but it is a great matchup with the Hawks. Porzingis has seen his price tag come down and I think this looks like a great spot for him against this Atlanta defense. Avdija bounced back in a big way last time out and has been sneaky good as of late, he’s averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per game in his last ten games and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to. Tomas Satoransky will continue to start and look like a solid enough mid-to-low range option for cash games, but if you’re looking for a ceiling Ish Smith will be the guy you’ll want and is coming off of a great game last time out. Then Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is never really a guy I love getting to and feels more like a glorified Danny Green than anything, but he’s a fine option for GPPs due to his upside. From the Hawks, Danilo Gallinari comes in as questionable here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Bogdan Bogdanovic bounced back nicely last time out and will look like a good option in a great matchup against this Wizards team. I have no issue going right back to Trae Young here, he has at least 55 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and the matchup is awesome here. Clint Capela has been in great form as of late, but he’s the type of guy that as soon as you start to trust him he’ll pull the chair on you making him more of a tournament-type guy. Then we can round this team out with Kevin Huerter and De’Andre Hunter as secondary filler pieces, but both would receive a boost if Gallinari needs to miss.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Trae Young
4-star play: Deni Avdija, Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ish Smith, Tomas Satoransky, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rui Hachimura, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -17.5
I would love to have a slate where we don’t need to deal with the tire fire that is the Thunder right now. I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re going to run the same starting lineup they did last night and shut down Aleksej Pokusevski for the season, as they have no reason to risk injury on their main pieces. Yesterday we got the below starting lineup along with how they performed:
- Zavier Simpson – 44 minutes; 26.25 DraftKings points
- Vit Krejci – 21 minutes; 24.25 DraftKings points
- Georgios Kalaitzakis – 43 minutes; 26.75 DraftKings points
- Jaylen Hoard – 46 minutes; 61.75 DraftKings points
- Isaiah Roby – 43 minutes; 44 DraftKings points
Theo Maledon also didn’t play last night, whoever starts for the Thunder (assuming the same lineup as yesterday) is going to play massive minutes, so guys like Simpson, Kalaitzakis, Hoard, and Roby will look like great options at their current price tags. From the Jazz, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them get some guys some rest in this matchup. That being said, I’ll operate under the assumption that everyone is a full go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell have been in good form as of late and will look like solid options in all formats again here, they should be able to do whatever they want in this matchup. Mike Conley has been in much better form over the past two weeks and will look like a solid option here. Jordan Clarkson is the GPP pivot off of him if you’re looking to get some leverage, but Conley won’t be popular enough for it to make sense unless you just want to save a couple hundred bucks. Lastly, it looks like the minutes restriction on Bojan Bogdanovic is a goner, as he got over 40 minutes last night and will be a solid GPP option at this price tag.
5-star play: Zavier Simpson, Georgios Kalaitzakis, Jaylen Hoard
4-star play: Isaiah Roby, Vit Krejci, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: Zavier Simpson, Georgios Kalaitzakis
GPP Sleeper: Vit Krejci, Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -1.0
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker has at least 51 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will look like a solid option in all formats again tonight. Chris Paul has cooled off since having a great start since coming back from injury and will look more like a secondary option for me here due to his form. Deandre Ayton will look like a nice option again here, the price tag has come down and should be able to get us there in a nice matchup. Then the trio of Cam Johnson, Mikal Brides, and Jae Crowder will look like fine GPP options on a shorter slate. From the Clippers, Paul George has also cooled off a bit after coming back from injury strong in his debut. That said, I would think they want to get his legs under him before the playoffs start and he has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 fantasy points on the season, I have no issue going back to him in this spot. The only other guys I would have interest in from the Clippers are in the frontcourt with Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac. It’s been somewhat difficult trying to determine which one of them will have the big game on a nightly basis, so I’ll consider them both GPP options if you need a mid-range center option. I keep saying I’m just going to fade the trio of Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Nic Batum due to Coach Lue stating they’d be limited for the rest of the regular season, but they continue to play big minutes, so I’ll leave them as GPP options.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Paul George
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris
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NBA Lock of the Day: Jaylen Hoard (DK – $5.0k; FD – $4.5k)
The Thunder have essentially given up on the season at this point, and assuming we see the same starting lineup as last night, they’ll be without Theo Maledon and Aleksej Pokusevki again. I would anticipate Hoard to get the start again here and play massive minutes. He’s played at least 40 minutes in two of his last three games with at least 45 FanDuel points in both of those games. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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