Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 04/3:
Mar 30, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (3) tries to get past Toronto Raptors forward Precious Achiuwa (5) in the first half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.5
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid will look to fight back into the MVP race a bit as it seems like he took a fall behind Jokic and Giannis over the weekend. That being said, he’s averaging 63.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Cavs this season and will look like a solid spend-up option in all formats. James Harden will continue to be a GPP guy for me, he’s been pretty volatile relative to his price tag since joining the Sixers. Tobias Harris has actually been in fairly good form as of late, but both he and Tyrese Maxey would be more of secondary GPP options than anything on this slate. From the Cavs, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both expected to miss this game again meaning we should see Moses Brown get the start. His price tag has come up, but for good reason as he has back-to-back games with at least 32 FanDuel points. The price hasn’t come up enough for me to get off of him even in a tough matchup, he’ll look like a great option. It will be hard for me to get to Kevin Love in anything other than GPPs due to the volatility he’s shown even with Allen/Mobley out as of late. I’ll continue to get my exposure to Darius Garland on FanDuel where he’s $1k cheaper, but he should keep getting all the minutes he can handle in this one. The minutes have come up on Caris LeVert and he had a nice bounce-back game last time out and will look good again in this spot. Then we can round this team out with Lauri Markkanen as a secondary filler piece, should you land on him.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Moses Brown
4-star play: James Harden, Darius Garland (FanDuel), Caris LeVert, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love
Deeper Value: Lamar Stevens
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Kevin Love, Darius Garland (DraftKings)
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New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -5.0
Starting with the Knicks, it sounds like Julius Randle will have to sit out the rest of the regular season due to injury. I would anticipate Obi Toppin gets the start for him going forward, and below is how the rest of this team operates with Randle out this season (and Rose):
- Obi Toppin – 19.9% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Alec Burks – 26.6% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 34.1% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 11.4% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Evan Fournier – 20.9% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team, particularly Toppin and Barrett who should benefit the most with Randle being out. Not to mention, it’s a great matchup with the Magic in this one. Speaking of the Magic, they’ll be without Wendell Carter Jr. and Jalen Suggs at the very least, as Franz Wagner and Cole Anthony come in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re in, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding their status. Mo Bamba had a big game last time out and is averaging 33.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Knicks on the season. I’m going to continue to leave Cole Anthony for GPPs, he’s just been extremely volatile as of late and I think we can do better in this price range. Chuma Okeke has been less than impressive as of late and I would assume we get better value option on this slate. Markelle Fultz followed up his big game against the Wizards with another big game last time out and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here especially if Anthony is forced to miss. Lastly, Mo Wagner and RJ Hampton would be GPP value options if Anthony and/or Wagner were to miss here as well.
5-star play: RJ Barrett
4-star play: Obi Toppin, Alec Burks, Franz Wagner, Mo Bamba
Deeper Value: Mo Wagner, RJ Hampton
GPP Sleeper: Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Markelle Fultz, Mo Wagner, RJ Hampton
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 243.0
Vegas Spread: Min -13.5
The implied total on this one is massive at 243.0, so we should be able to find some solid DFS options in this one. Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns had a nice bounce-back game last time out and is averaging 59.9 DraftKings points in two games against the Rockets this season, he’ll look like an elite option here. Anthony Edwards has found a groove as of late with at least 41 DraftKings points in three straight games and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to either. I’ll probably continue to get my D’Angelo Russell exposure on FanDuel where he’s $1.4k cheaper and coming off of a nice game last time out. If you want to go to Patrick Beverley here I won’t talk you off of him, but I have a feeling we’ll be able to find guys with higher ceilings than him on this slate. From the Rockets, it looks like Alperen Sengun will be good to go here and will start the rest of the season with Christian Wood being shut down. This is an elite matchup against this Wolves frontcourt and will be a guy I like quite a bit here. Kevin Porter Jr. kept the ball rolling last time out and now has at least 52 DraftKings points in three straight games and will be a guy I like in all formats again here even at an elevated price tag. Porter Jr. has a 25% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Wood, Gordon, and Schroder off of the court this season. The same thing can be said for Jalen Green who has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight. Jae’Sean Tate isn’t a sexy option by any means but will look like a fine secondary option here if you happened to land on him. Then I think we can get off of guys like Bruno Fernando here with Sengun back and his price tag coming up.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell (FanDuel), Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr.
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell (DraftKings), Patrick Beverley, Jalen Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Jae’Sean Tate, Josh Christopher
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Phx -14.5
Starting with the Suns, they will rest Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder here. Below is how this team operates with these three off of the court this season:
- Cam Johnson – 18.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Cam Payne – 28.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- JaVale McGee – 25% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- Chris Paul – 22.8% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 15% usage rate; 0.68 fpm
I would expect we see someone like Torrey Craig enter the starting lineup for Crowder, as well as JaVale McGee joining the starting lineup. I probably won’t have much interest in Craig, but as you can see above, McGee is an elite per-minute guy on the season and will look like a really nice value option in a fantastic spot. I’ll have no issues getting to Paul or Johnson either due to the matchup and the increased production they should see with Booker and these guys out. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tre Mann again here. We’ll probably end up having to roster a couple of these Thunder guys again with them having just nine active bodies tonight depending on the status of Pokusevski who comes in as questionable. Guys like Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, and Isaiah Roby are the options I feel most comfortable with. That said, Aaron Wiggins and these ancillary pieces performed well relative to their salaries as well. My favorite of those ancillary pieces is Lindy Waters who continues to look great with at least 31 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
5-star play: Chris Paul, JaVale McGee, Theo Maledon
4-star play: Cam Johnson, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Roby, Lindy Waters
Deeper Value: JaVale McGee, Torrey Craig, Olivier Sarr, Vit Krejci
GPP Sleeper: Cam Payne, Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, Olivier Sarr, Vit Krejci, Aaron Wiggins
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Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Sas -14.5
Starting with the Blazers, it’s worth noting that the 10-day contracts of Drew Eubanks and Kris Dunn expire today, so they’ll need to sign new deals before playing tonight. I fully expect Eubanks and Dunn to sign, but just keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re a go tonight. We saw this matchup last time these two teams played, so we have a bit of a sample to go off of here. Eubanks struggled a bit relative to his price tag, but it’s a revenge game for him and a guy I don’t have any issues getting to at this price point again here. Brandon Williams is another fine option here, I do like targeting this Spurs team with opposing point guards so he and Kris Dunn will look like solid options for me in this spot. CJ Elleby and Keon Johnson will look like solid secondary pieces as well, I just don’t think either of them are great DFS players. Greg Brown should continue to start and play around 30 minutes with Trendon Watford out and will look like a solid value option again here. From the Spurs, Dejounte Murray missed this game last time out due to an illness but comes in as questionable today. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go for the sake of this article. He bounced back in a big way over his last few games with at least 55 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets an elite matchup here. He’ll look like a top spend-up option on this slate. Keldon Johnson has also looked good over his last handful of games as well and is a solid tournament option, I just have a hard time pulling the cash trigger on him. Jakob Poeltl is averaging 35.2 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Blazers this season and a guy I have no issue going right back to here against Eubanks down low. Josh Richardson has been in solid form as of late but I don’t think he’s a guy we need to get to on this slate. Then we can round the team out with Devin Vassell as a secondary filler piece if you happened to land on him.
5-star play: Brandon Williams, Dejounte Murray
4-star play: Drew Eubanks, Kris Dunn, Keon Johnson, Greg Brown, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Greg Brown
GPP Sleeper: CJ Elleby, Josh Richardson, Devin Vassell
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 212.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -3.5
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler has matched up really well with the Raptors this season. He’s averaged 60.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against them on the year and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. I do like the price tag on Bam Adebayo as well, probably more of a secondary option, but an option nonetheless. I wouldn’t expect Tyler Herro to shoot 6-7 from three-point range again here, but he’s been pretty consistent with at least 33 DraftKings points in three straight games. The same can be said for Kyle Lowry as he comes in in good form in a revenge game against his old squad. Lastly, Max Strus has been getting the start for them as of late and has looked pretty solid. I would imagine we get better value that opens up, but he’s a nice GPP guy nonetheless. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam had a down game last time out but has played well against the Raptors this season, averaging 53.9 DraftKings points per game in three games. I don’t like targeting guys against this Heat team, but he’s proven he can produce against them and will look like a solid option here. The minutes look like they’re back to being fully back for Fred VanVleet who has at least 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That being said, I do like the FanDuel price tag better where he’s almost $1k cheaper. I’ll have no issue with Scottie Barnes as well, he should continue to play big minutes as well. The price tag is starting to come back down to a more playable range as this team begins to get healthier. OG Anunoby seems to have found his footing and has gotten his minutes back. I like the price tag on him and will look like a nice mid-range option. Gary Trent Jr. will be more of a GPP guy with these guys mostly back, but the minutes will be there for him, and can light it up in a hurry but is very scoring dependent. Lastly, Precious Achiuwa is a fine GPP guy as well, the minutes have been volatile, but he’s been good on a per-minute basis.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: Max Strus, Precious Achiuwa
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Tyler Herro
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -6.0
Starting with the Warriors, Jordan Poole continues to play great basketball with Steph Curry out, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in a great matchup here. Poole has a 31.5% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks with Curry off of the floor and will look like a great option again here. Klay Thompson will look like a solid option as well even at his elevated price tag of late. Andrew Wiggins will be more of a GPP guy due to his volatility but has shown some consistency in tough matchups over his last two games. Draymond Green saw his most minutes since returning from injury yesterday… I think there’s a chance he rests here, but if he plays he should be at 30+ minutes and will look like a solid secondary option. Lastly, Otto Porter Jr. has been volatile but has shown a nice ceiling relative to his price tag and will be a solid GPP option in a great matchup. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox will be out again for this one meaning we should see guys like Davion Mitchell and Damian Jones again. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court over the past four weeks:
- Davion Mitchell – 26.2% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Damian Jones – 18.5% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Donte DiVincenzo – 20.0% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 18.8% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Chimezie Metu – 23.6% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Trey Lyles – 18.5% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
These would be my main options from Sacramento, I don’t really have a ton of interest in guys like Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb who either aren’t great per minute guys or will see volatile minutes. Damian Jones is on a heater with back-to-back 50 burgers against the Rockets, so he’ll look to keep that going here, but the price has certainly caught up to him. The matchup doesn’t exactly scare me off either, so I’ll have a good amount of interest in these main guys from the Kings.
5-star play: Jordan Poole, Davion Mitchell
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: Chimezie Metu
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr., Trey Lyles
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0
Starting with the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas has been playing great as of late with at least 40 FanDuel points in seven straight games and looks like a solid option again here. CJ McCollum bounced back in a big way last time out, dropping a 50 burger on the Lakers, and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. The price tag on Brandon Ingram has come up, but it’s been well warranted. He’s been in great form as of late and is a guy I don’t mind going back to here. Then guys like Devonte’ Graham and Herb Jones are more filler pieces than anything on a big slate, but I highly doubt I get anywhere near them. From the Clippers, they should get their guys back here after resting them against the Bucks on Friday night. Paul George has a 34.4% usage rate and 1.30 fantasy points on the season and I would think they want to get him ramped up for the playoffs, so he should see another 30+ minutes here. The only other guys I would have interest in from the Clippers are in the frontcourt with Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac. Hartenstein bounced back in a big way last time out and has been getting more consistent run than Zubac as of late and is a guy I like going right back to. I’ll likely just fade guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Nic Batum until the playoffs, coach Lue can’t be trusted when it comes to their minutes. Also, don’t chase the 70 point and 60 point fantasy nights from Robert Covington and Amir Coffey, that game was a throw-away game for both teams.
5-star play: Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Paul George, Isaiah Hartenstein
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris
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NBA Lock of the Day: Karl-Anthony Towns (DK – $9.6k; FD – $8.7k)
I absolutely love the spot and the price point for Towns here. He had a nice bounce-back game last time out and gets an elite matchup against a Rockets frontcourt that will be without Christian Wood for the rest of the season. Towns is averaging 59.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Rockets this season and is simply too cheap here. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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