Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 04/22:
Apr 19, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) handles the ball during the third quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans during game two of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.0
We’ll kick this slate kicked off with the Heat who come into this game up 2-0. Jimmy Butler is always a guy I like to get to and went absolutely bananas in game 2, the matchup sets up well for him, and will be a guy I go right back to here. Bam Adebayo has struggled in his last two games and comes into this one as questionable again, I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays tonight but obviously keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. The price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel has come down to a really nice price point. Tyler Herro is another guy who has struggled in back-to-back games, but when Butler is cooking like he was last time out it makes it pretty hard to get his shots. He’ll be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this spot as well. Kyle Lowry has been as consistent as they come as of late and will look like a nice option again here at his current price tag. Max Strus had a great game last time out going for 26.25 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes. His price has come up and if I was told he was going to play 22 minutes last time out I don’t think I would have played him. That said, he’s going to continue to start and will be a solid option. You saw why I wanted to be underweight on Duncan Robinson following his huge game 1 performance, he’s just not the type of guy to get it done consistently and Spoelstra doesn’t even trust him to be out there. Then we can round this team out with PJ Tucker as a value option, he has at least 15 DraftKings points in each game of this series. From the Hawks, Trae Young continues to struggle with this Heat defense, he’s now averaging just 36.8 DraftKings points per game in six games against the Heat this season. I will likely just be underweight on him again, I can’t get over the matchup. Clint Capela will continue to be out here after suffering a knee injury against the Cavs. John Collins re-entered the starting lineup last time out and actually started at the five for Capela as Onyka Okongwu went back to the bench. I would expect more of the same here and Collins is just too cheap for that role especially if we think his minutes increase yet again. Bogdan Bogdanovic had a big bounce-back game in game 2 and is a solid secondary option if you happened to land in his price range. Then we can round this team out with secondary filler pieces in guys like De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, and Kevin Huerter.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, John Collins
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, PJ Tucker, Duncan Robinson, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Onyeka Okongwu
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win earlier in the season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -2.5
We’ll start this game off with the Bucks who lost Khris Middleton for the rest of this series in game 2. It’s to be determined on who is starting in his place but I would think it’s either Pat Connaughton or Grayson Allen, with a strong lean toward Connaughton in my opinion… he just fits the Middleton style a bit more. That said, we should see more minutes from guys like these two, Jevon Carter, and even Bobby Portis moving forward until Middleton can back assuming the Bucks can take care of business without him. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.8% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 28.6% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 15.5% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team with those top three guys being my favorite options. The Bulls will continue to search for a way to stop Giannis who is now averaging 58.5 DraftKings points per game in six games against them this season. Keep an eye on this starting lineup, but there should be some solid value on this team to make things work on this slate. From the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic was a core play for me and the lock of the day again last time these two teams played and he crushed again… I’m going to continue to go back to the well at a nice price tag again here with him. DeMar DeRozan took over in game 2, I wouldn’t expect that kind of shooting performance again, but he certainly has the usage and aggressiveness to try. Zach LaVine had a down game but similar to Herro in that first game, it’s hard to have a great game when the team’s main scorer is doing whatever he wants. Patrick Williams bounced back last time out as well, he should play 30+ minutes as his size is helpful to defend Giannis… he’s a nice option in all formats. Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White would be more of GPP options than anything as they’ll play off of the bench but I just don’t think we need them on this slate. I do like going right back to the well on Alex Caruso even at an increased price tag. He was a guy I was all over as a value option last time out and had a ceiling game, they need his defense and “coachability” on the floor.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Deeper Value: Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis, Jevon Carter, Ayo Dosunmo, Coby White
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.5
Starting with the Suns, much like the Bucks, they’ll be without one of their main guys in Devin Booker for a few games. I would think we see one of Cam Johnson or Landry Shamet enter the starting lineup with another heavy lean toward Johnson. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 23.2% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Cam Johnson – 18.9% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jae Crowder – 17.4% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 23.7% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 16.0% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
- Cam Payne – 27.2% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
These would be the main options for me with Booker out, but think Johnson sees a pretty substantial boost with the minutes increase he should see at a nice price tag. I do expect big Paul and Ayton games as well, the Suns can’t afford to go down 1-2 and needing to win a game four in New Orleans. Speaking of New Orleans, I kept saying “I don’t see the upside for Brandon Ingram to beat us if we fade him”…. well he did last game when he dropped nearly 70 fantasy points. That being said, his price shot up to over $9k on both DraftKings and FanDuel making him more of a secondary option for me. CJ McCollum now has at least 48 DraftKings points in back-to-back games as well and will look like a nice option in all formats. I have no issue going back to the well on Jonas Valanciunas as well, he’s looked pretty good this series and will need his size down low. Larry Nance is another guy that continues to look great at a nice price tag, he should play another 20-25 minutes here and will be a guy I like in all formats. Then we can round this team and slate out with Herbert Jones who will play all the minutes he can handle due to his defense and will look like a nice secondary option.
5-star play: Chris Paul, Cam Johnson
4-star play: Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Herbert Jones
Deeper Value: Cam Payne, JaVale McGee
GPP Sleeper: Cam Payne, JaVale McGee, Larry Nance Jr.
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NBA Lock of the Day: Pat Connaughton (DK – $4.0k; FD – $4.4k)
With Khris Middleton out for the Bucks, I’m expecting Patty C to get the start in his spot and play a big role in this series moving forward. He’s averaging 0.85 fantasy points per minute on the season with Middleton off of the court which is nearly a 0.1 per minute increase along with what should be more minutes. He provides some nice value on this slate to help jam in some of these bigger pieces. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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