Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 04/16:
Feb 3, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates after the three point basket during the fourth quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 209.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -5.0
We’ll kick this slate kicked off with the Jazz, both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will look like solid options here at fair price tags. The Mavs defense was much improved in the second half of the season, but still not a defense I’m all that afraid of and I think the Jazz get out of this series in six games or under. Mike Conley ended the season on a great run with at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games and the nice thing about the playoffs is he should be locked into 30+ minutes. Jordan Clarkson is the GPP pivot off of Conley at a similar price tag and has a solid ceiling, but the floor leaves some to be desired. Bojan Bogdanovic is pretty scoring dependant but he shoots a ton and will play a ton here, I don’t have an issue getting to him at a nice price tag in all formats. Then we can round this team out with Rudy Gay and Royce O’Neale who are secondary GPP options if we run low on value on this slate. O’Neale should play 30+ minutes but isn’t a great per-minute producer, while Gay is the opposite, he’ll play 20-25 minutes but gets it done when he’s out there. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic will be out for this game and potentially the next game as well… below is how this team operates with him off of the court over the last three months:
- Jalen Brunson – 31.4% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 32.3% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 16.1% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Dwight Powell – 12.0% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Reggie Bullock – 13.9% usage rate; 0.59 fpm
These would be my main interests from the Mavs, with most of it coming between Brunson and Dinwiddie – they’ll run the offense tonight and for however long Luka is out. The team doesn’t have a ton of huge fantasy producers outside of Brunson and Dinwiddie so anyone after those guys would be secondary GPP options.
5-star play: Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell
Deeper Value: Rudy Gay, Royce O’Neale, Davis Bertans
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gay, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Reggie Jackson
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win earlier in the season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.5
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns struggled in the play-in game but was mostly due to falling into foul trouble. I have no problem going back to him here and if the public will be lower on him due to his game logs, even better. Anthony Edwards looked awesome in that game and will be a guy I ride during the playoffs, he looks the part of a guy that can carry a team to wins. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 48.6 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Grizzlies this season and will be a guy I go right back to here as well. We know Patrick Beverley is going to bring the intensity and will play all the minutes he can handle. He’s been right around this price tag all season long and hasn’t been shy about paying it off, he’ll look like a nice mid-range option. Jarred Vanderbilt was a core play for me the last time the Wolves were on the slate and he’s looking good again here. The price tag is probably accurate for his median production, but when the playoffs come, value and cheap plays go out the window as teams tighten their rotation. At least with Vanderbilt, we know the minutes will be there and will look like a nice option again here. Then we can round this team out with Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels as flyer options if you’re MME’ing the slate. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant returned to play their final game of the season and played 27 minutes, he’s also not on the injury report for this game, so he should be a full go and looks like a great option here against this Wolves defense. Jaren Jackson and Steven Adams could be sneaky here, particularly Adams, I love targeting big men against this Wolves team and won’t stop here. The price tags on Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane look about right here and should be solid secondary options on the wing. We can safely fade Tyus Jones at his current price tag, it hasn’t adjusted to Morant being back. I do think Brandon Clarke is interesting in that same category as Vanderbilt, but his minutes are more volatile… that being said, he’s averaged 24 DraftKings points per game against the Wolves in four games this season.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Ja Morant
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Desmond Banes, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaden McDaniels, Brandon Clarke
GPP Sleeper: Malik Beasley, Jaden McDaniels, Brandon Clarke, Kyle Anderson
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.5
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has been in great form as of late and hasn’t shied away from this matchup either. He’s averaging 57.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Sixers this season. Fred VanVleet was able to drop a 50 burger against this team as well earlier this season and will look like a solid option in all formats. I’ll have no issue with Scottie Barnes as well, he should continue to play big minutes as well. The price tag is starting to come back down to a more playable range as this team begins to get healthier. I would expect OG Anunoby to get back up to full run here and not the volatile minutes we’ve seen from him over the past month or so. Gary Trent Jr. is probably more of a tournament guy due to his scoring dependency but he’ll play big minutes due to how short this Nick Nurse rotation is. Lastly, Precious Achiuwa is a fine GPP guy as well, the minutes have been volatile, but he’s been good on a per-minute basis and they’ll need his size against Embiid and company down low, he’s actually played well against him this season. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate for obvious reasons as he looks to get revenge against the Raptors from that 2019 playoff run. The price tag on James Harden looks awesome here and is finally at a spot where we can get to him and still have some meat left on the bone. I would expect he’s pretty popular here, but for good reason. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will look like solid options here as well, but probably more of filler or GPP options as they’re the third and fourth options on this team as Harden and Embiid soak up all the usage. Then guys like Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle will play big minutes since they’ll need them defensively but are MME options only due to the per-minute production you’ll get from them.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: Georges Niang, Danny Green, Matisse Thybulle
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa, Danny Green, Matisse Thybulle, Georges Niang
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: GSW -6.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is probably the top spend-up option on the slate simply because he’ll have to do everything for this Nuggets team to win. He’s averaging 65.3 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Warriors this season. Draymond being back will make it more difficult defensively, but he’ll be a great option here nonetheless. Aaron Gordon and Will Barton are the secondary pieces I’ll like most on this team, they’ll play a ton of minutes and similarly to Jokic, the Nuggets will NEED these guys to play well if they stand any chance at winning this series. Monte Morris and Bones Hyland are more of tournament options than anything for me and the same can be said for Jeff Green and maybe DeMarcus Cousins if you really want to get wacky. From the Warriors, Steph Curry comes in as probable for this game and has not played in over a month. It will be interesting what they do with his minutes here, but I would expect he’s a full go and will see 30+ minutes as usual. I’ll consider him more of a tournament option due to the unknown minutes and he’s been a bit more volatile in the second half of the season. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will lose production and usage with Curry back in there but I still think we can get to Thompson… I’ll be fading Poole at this price tag as he heads back to the bench and takes on the sixth man role. Andrew Wiggins will continue to be a GPP option but he’s been pretty essential for their defensive success which was unexpected when they traded for him. We should also start to see 35 minutes per game Draymond Green again and makes sense at this price tag… he can get you there in many ways. Then we can round this team out with MME guys like Otto Porter Jr., Jonathan Kuminga, and Kevon Looney.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Jeff Green, Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Bones Hyland, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr., Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney
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NBA Lock of the Day: Spencer Dinwiddie (DK – $6.3k; FD – $6.9k)
As I mentioned earlier, Luka Doncic will miss this game with an injury which makes Spencer Dinwiddie a pretty easy play for me. He has a 32.3% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season and the price tag doesn’t reflect that kind of median production. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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