Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 04/12:
Apr 10, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) reacts in the second quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -8.5
It’s playoff time!! Before I get started with this game I just want to touch on the playoffs being much much much different than we’re used to seeing over the past couple of weeks. Rotations will tighten up and so will value on slates. A lot of times it will take the public longer to adjust to this, so the sooner we can get ahead of that, the better. We’ll start with the Cavs, it looks like Evan Mobley will be good to get while Jarrett Allen will continue to miss with that finger injury. I would expect Mobley to get back up to that 35 minute per game mark and will look like a nice option in this one. Darius Garland is a guy I like quite a bit here, he’s averaging 46.1 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Nets this season. The Cavs will need a big game from him if they want to win this one. I would still consider Caris LeVert more of a tournament option in a revenge game against the Nets. His production is just a bit too volatile for me to love for cash games, that being said, it’s a two-game slate so I won’t fault you for going to him. Then we get to the frontcourt where I think we leave Lauri Markkanen as your cash option and have Kevin Love as a GPP option due to the minutes’ volatility. That being said, I would imagine we see those minutes tighten up a bit now that it’s do-or-die time. Lastly, Isaac Okoro will start in that SF spot, he’s not a great per minute guy but the minutes will be there for him if you need a salary saver… right there with Cedi Osman and Rajon Rondo to round out this team and their rotation. From the Nets, they’ll be without Ben Simmons here which isn’t too much of a shock, but it sounds like Seth Curry is going to give it a go. Curry will look like a nice value option at this price tag and should play around 30 minutes if he can carry his weight defensively. The main pieces we’ll want here are Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, however. Durant ended the season on a heater and we know he can take over in these do-or-die games. I would expect both he and Irving to play 40+ minutes here and will look like great options in all formats. Irving is averaging 46.4 DraftKings points per game in two games of revenge against his old team this season. Andre Drummond will look like a great option here as well, he’s played really well with the Nets and I do think we’ll see times where Durant or Simmons (if he ever plays) will close at the five for this team, but the Cavs are a big team so I would expect Drummond to have his minutes solidified here. Then we can round this team out with Bruce Brown, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Goran Dragic as secondary plays, that’s about as deep in this rotation they’ll go unless you want to throw a lineup or two at Patty Mills and Nic Claxton.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen, Andre Drummond, Seth Curry, Bruce Brown
Deeper Value: Rajon Rondo, Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, Nic Claxton, LaMarcus Aldridge
GPP Sleeper: Rajon Rondo, Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, Nic Claxton, LaMarcus Aldridge
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win late in the NBA season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Min -3.0
Starting with the Clippers, Luke Kennard comes in as questionable, but the rest of this team should be a go tonight – just keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for news on Kennard, but I’m not sure we’ll even need him at this price on this slate. Paul George will look great to me here, he’s averaging 46.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Wolves this season and we should see around 35-40 minutes from him tonight assuming this game stays close. George has a 33.7% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute on the season, so if we average that out to 35 minutes, we’re staring down the barrel at 46 fantasy points which would put him right there with upside against a below-average defense. We can finally go back to guys like Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris with comfort knowing they won’t randomly put them on minutes restrictions. I do think these guys take a bit of a hit with Norman Powell back, however. Powell played 23 and 22 minutes in his two games back from injury but would imagine he plays 30+ minutes at a really nice price tag. They’re going to need to throw the kitchen sink at Towns on the other end of this one so the minutes for Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein should be good to go here, both have been in really solid form as of late. Then we should see them round this rotation out with guys like Nicolas Batum, Terance Mann, and some Robert Covington who would all look like secondary options here. From the Wolves, I mentioned that Karl-Anthony Towns will be a problem for the Clippers’ frontcourt. That being said, they’ve done pretty well against him this season, holding him to just 34.6 FanDuel points per game in three games against them this season. I still think he’ll be a strong option here with that said. Then we get to Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell as the other two big pieces on this team, both guys will look great here as they finished the season pretty strong. I would expect Patrick Beverley shows up for this game, if not, we know his attitude will be there in a revenge game against his old team. The price tag isn’t too bad on him here and will look like a solid mid-range option in all formats. Jarred Vanderbilt might be my favorite option on this team at his current price tag of $3.9k on DraftKings and $4.5k on FanDuel. He’s going to start here and they’ll need 30+ minutes from him, he provides some much-needed value on this slate. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels will round out this rotation and are fine GPP options as well.
5-star play: Paul George, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jarred Vanderbilt
4-star play: Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley
Deeper Value: Nicolas Batum, Jarred Vanderbilt
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein, Terance Mann, Robert Covington, Malik Beasley, Jaden McDaniels
NBA Lock of the Day: Jarred Vanderbilt (DK – $3.9k; FD – $4.5k)
You’ll start to notice that value changes in a blink of an eye from the end of the regular season to the start of the playoffs. As I mentioned earlier, teams tighten the screws on their rotations quite a bit, so we’re going to lock in some much-needed value on this slate with Jarred Vanderbilt. I would expect he plays 30+ minutes here and is right around 0.90 fantasy points per minute on the season which will more than get us there as a value play on this slate. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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