DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
All of my plays make sense for the entire DFS industry; however, if there is an egregious discrepancy in player salary between sites, I will mention it in my briefing.
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
DFS NHL Slate Overview:
Any slate with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can be tricky, and tonight is one of those nights where it may be hard to fade. A ton of games though; a lot of intriguing options, including a sneaky play with Auston Matthews getting suspended. Let’s dig a little as to why my cheaper stack is going to be trickier than you’d think, and why you can do a partial stack on the more expensive side to maximize your ROI by incurring less risk. Read everything because you love me, but make sure you check out my PK Subban findings.
Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Mar 6, 2022; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski (16) and Minnesota Wild center Nico Sturm (7) face off in the second period at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
Correlated Snipe #1
Jason Robertson – Joe Pavelski – Roope Hintz
This line is somehow cheaper than its been in the past, and they are playing in Toronto, which is an easy game to get up for. Toronto will be without Matthews, who is better defensively than some would think, and they have had the worst goaltending in the league for multiple weeks now. Also, we already know that their blue-line is atrocious defensively as well, and the Stars’ top line is the type of line that Toronto struggles to handle. What I mean by that is that they play a straight ahead, in your face game, and I don’t think Toronto is tough enough to last 20 minutes against this top line and powerplay unit. Also, the Robertson brothers are playing against each other, and I’m betting on the older brother that had back to back hat tricks last week. The Stars are getting the Leafs at an opportune time. P.S. If you want to throw Klingberg into a megastack in smaller field tournaments, I will never be opposed to that.
Correlated Snipe #2
Connor McDavid – Evander Kane
A young and erratic Detroit team is headed up north to Alberta on a cold Tuesday in March; against an Oilers team that is playing with desperation every night. The Red Wings are a fast and young team that is capable of making mistakes that has played in some crazy barn burner type games this season. Connor McDavid needs no introduction as he is on pace for a gazillion points this season and isn’t even the most expensive center on the slate. Oh yeah, and did I mention that the Red Wings goaltending has been shotty all year? I mean the one kid swatted the damned thing in his own net. Evander Kane according to DFO is now listed as McDavid’s primary winger, which is why I am betting on him; also, Kane is still playing for his life given his personal and financial situations which are well-documented. Who needs Kailer Yamamoto? not me, but if you want to complete the line stack I won’t argue against it. Very good spot for the McDavid line; but for me, Yamamoto is too risky and takes up a winger spot which is way too valuable for him to clog into.
If you want to freshen up your 2021-22 cash and tourney strategy skills, read “How to Win DFS NHL in 2022.”
Hard Pass #1
Nashville Predators
I love me some magic mustached men, but Filip Forsberg and company aren’t needed tonight for me. The Penguins typically do a good job game-planning against their oppositions top line, which is what makes them so successful. The Penguins are a bunch of savvy old vets, and I will be comfortably be fading the Forsberg man.
Save research time with our easy-to-read NHL Cheatsheets! Core plays, tourney leverage, correlated stacks, and extreme goalie plays set up your night differently than your competition.
NHL Grinder Value Plays
Grinder #1
Alex Kerfoot – Added opportunity with Matthews out; I see him slotting into the top 6, and may be asked to add his scoring touch this week. We have seen Kerfoot’s upside in the past, and he may slot in on the powerplay too. People may see Matthews out and go with Tavares/Nylander; not I, it’s officially Kerfoot season.
Grinder#2
PK Subban – Hear me out here. I’m going to bring you some sauce here that not many people know about. PK Subban may be untradable with his $9M cap hit; however, not much cash is owed on his contract. So, what this means is that the Devils could straight up release him and actually save a couple hundred thousand bucks; which, may seem miniscule, but owners are cheap bastards, and there is no reason for Subban to play on the Devils for the rest of the season. I say that, because the Devils are a young team whose ownership can now both tank and save money. Why I am recommending Subban here, is because ofcourse his agent informed him of this; so, he is essentially playing for his career. If Subban gets released, he is open to sign with any team in the entire NHL; so, he needs to prove that he can play, so that a contending team will sign him. There is a real chance that everything I just said comes to fruition. Subban should be as motivated as ever.
Good luck, I hope you all come in 2nd. 😉
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