DFS Army’s Gthom quickly breaks down the top fantasy football headlines for the week and provides some analysis for season long fantasy football managers. Follow Gthom on twitter @GarettThomas.
Join the DFS Army today for best in the industry projections, Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Best Ball Rankings, Lineup Optimizer, Daily Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Coaching, and more! Join Today!
SPECIAL OFFER: Get 10% off your monthly VIP membership at DFSArmy.com with coupon code GTHOM when clicking this link!
Jan 17, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs against Cleveland Browns cornerback Kevin Johnson (28) during the first half in an AFC Divisional Round playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Tyreek Hill Dominates Headlines; Moving to Miami
There is no way Tyreek Hill leaves Patrick Mahomes and doesn’t downgrade, right? Right.
Hill’s new quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, may have trouble supporting Hill downfield. In 2021, Tagovailoa had 2734 intended air yards – much lower than Patrick Mahomes’ 4829 intended air yards. In other words Tua does not have a history of throwing the ball down field.
While it is a downgrade, expect volume to come Hill’s way. Not only did Miami give up multiple draft picks for Hill, they also made him the highest paid NFL receiver.
The biggest downgrade for Hill would be his upside. Those week-winning moments will be much harder to come by, which should make him fall a few spots in redrafts, best ball and dynasty, when compared to his 2021 ADP.
The fallout for MIA and KC
Miami’s sophomore receiver, Jaylon Waddle, is still a great fantasy candidate but will likely see a downgrade: how much is dependent on Tagovailoa. All other Miami pass-catchers get their fantasy-stock downgraded.
On the Kansas City side, Travis Kelce becomes even more attractive. Juju Smith-Schuster elevates a little but the signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling tamps down JuJu’s high hopes. Mecole Hardman and the rest of the bunch stay put with their values. A lot of shake-up can happen with this passing group, especially with the NFL’s rookie draft coming soon.
Robert Woods Sent to the Tennessee Titans
One thing is for sure, the Titans are going out of their way to secure pass catchers after their 2021 experience.
Robert Woods landing in Tennessee keeps his fantasy stock pretty close to where it had been previously with the Rams. In Los Angeles, Woods was a solid WR3/FLEX piece and was not the sexiest fantasy football player, but he moved the needle enough to help your team.
The first big hurdle for Woods will be his health after tearing his ACL in 2021. From there, it will be how he assimilates into this Tennessee offense. Tennessee can play a very slow style of football but when they can be pushed to score offensively, big fantasy outcomes can follow.
While Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are the catalysts for this offense, adding Woods improves the Titans’ receiver group and their offense as a whole.
Season long managers should view Woods as a WR3/FLEX for their fantasy football team. Best ball managers could find some value in Woods: a talented player inside an even more talented offense. And Woods usually goes off once or twice a season. This does not change much for Woods’ dynasty appeal.
Our Fantasy Football “Bold Call” Podcast Returns!
Click the image and open in a new window to hear the latest overreactions to the Deshaun Watson/Baker Mayfield news…
Indianapolis Colts Trade for Atlanta’s Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan being traded likely improves his chances at being a more reliable fantasy football quarterback, namely in the touchdown category.
The former Boston College standout will see an upgrade at running back, Jonathan Taylor, and an upgrade at his receiving core—since Calvin Ridley was expected to miss the 2022 season for Atlanta. Additionally, the Colts’ defense is much better and more reliable, which will give Ryan more chances on the field. His most notable downgrade would be the tight end position.
Ryan will likely be an inconsistent quarterback to rely on for single-QB formats, but he may bring value depending on how late you can grab him. In 2-QB leagues, he would be a great QB2 for your roster.
Don’t overpay for Ryan in best ball leagues; compared to other quarterbacks he carries more risk than reward. A trade to Indy does boost his dynasty stock, but Ryan at age 36 is still not a long-term plan.
While this feels like a nice upgrade for Ryan, his improvement for fantasy will likely peak around top-12 at his position. In 2021 Carson Wentz finished as the QB14 overall with Indy (hard to believe), while Ryan finished as QB20 overall with basement dwelling Atlanta.
Keep in mind that oddsmakers only improved Indianapolis’ championship odds to 25-1. Prior to the trade it rested at 30-1.
Marcus Mariota Agrees to Two-Year Deal with Falcons
Marcus Mariota lands himself a second chance at being a starting quarterback in the NFL. However, with Atlanta, it is hard to be hopeful.
You do not need to be an NFL analyst to know the Falcons are bad. This team will struggle, especially on offense. Mariota does little to improve that but he may provide some fantasy relevancy.
One interesting thing about Mariota is that he can get a few fantasy points scrambling. Through his career as a starter with Tennessee, Mariota averaged at least 20.8 rushing yards per game in 4-of-5 seasons. Playing with Atlanta, he could find himself running even more in order to make things happen.
Look for him to fall deep into best ball drafts. If you want to target him he should be easy to acquire. Mariota obviously gained some dynasty value, however it does not move him anywhere near a category of must-have.
For single-QB leagues he should not be drafted unless he is your last few picks and you want to take a shot on his minimal upside. Managers of 2-QB leagues should target him as a QB3 that steps in for streaming and BYE weeks.
Don’t be fooled because Mariota will bring much more risk than reward to fantasy stakeholders.
Jamison Crowder Likely the Starting Slot-Receiver for Buffalo
Injuries will be the biggest thing that Jamison Crowder must overcome in Buffalo. Crowder has not played a full season since 2019. Since 2017 he has missed 17 games, or an entire season.
Assuming Crowder remains healthy, he has upside in PPR formats within this offense and could potentially finish as the WR2 on his team. He should be stepping right into the Cole Beasley role, which will cannibalize Isiah McKenzie’s fantasy hopes.
The former 4th-round pick is apart of arguably the best offense in the NFL. Furthermore, he possesses one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. There are scenarios where he brings tremendous ROI to his fantasy stakeholders; there are much more likelier scenarios where he is injured throughout the year and fantasy managers never fully trust Crowder enough to start him.
Understand that Crowder is a PPR guy and is not a player with historic touchdown production. He has yet to score more than seven touchdowns in a single-season. For full and half-point PPR leagues, view Crowder in the WR3/FLEX territory.
The seven-year vet also seems to be a solid best ball candidate with moderate risk and modest rewards. As for his dynasty appeal, his PPR stock has improved a good amount solely due to the team around him, but his injury risk is real so do not break the bank.
Do you DFS? We teach Joes to Become Pros. Easy Tools, Winning Track Records, and Actual Coaching to Make You Better
