NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 3/9/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG/SG Fred VanVleet $8200

TOR @ SAS

It has been a while since we had one of these huge slates. There are a lot of players listed as questionable. Expect to be late swapping all night. There are several teams on back-to-backs and tanking meaning there should be value that opens up throughout the day. One of these questionable players is Fred VanVleet. He practiced Tuesday and Raptors coach Nick Nurse said he expects FVV to make his return Wednesday. Nurse cannot be trusted so make sure he actually plays. I am not expecting any sort of limitation since the Raptors are trying to fight for playoff positioning. OG Anunoby is still out, They lost their backup PG in Malachi Flynn. This puts even more weight on FVV’s shoulders because the Raptors need playmakers. They have been struggling mightily to score points recently.

The Spurs are a friendly matchup as they rank 5th in pace and 18th in defensive efficiency. They allow the 5th-most DKpts to opposing PGs. Toronto is playing at the 6th-slowest pace this season so this is a significant pace-up spot for the Raptors. This short absence was for VanVleet’s knee to heal a bit. He played through the injury for a couple of games. Nurse has been consistently playing his starters huge mins. FVV would play 42mins in regulation. I am not expecting this workload because he is banged up. He should still play high-30s though. With Anunoby out, the Raptors start Khem Birch. This is more usage for the rest of the starters. The questionable tag is going to keep FVV’s ownership low today. He is too cheap for this great matchup.

 

PG Kevin Porter Jr. $6300

HOU vs LAL

There are a lot of unknowns for this game. Whatever happens, I like KPJ’s upside here. The Lakers continue to struggle. KPJ has had his ups and down. This seems like a spot for him to pop. The Rockets are tied for 1st in pace meaning all of their games are going to be pace-down spots. The Lakers are 6th though so it is not that big of a deal today. Somehow, the Lakers are 16th in defensive efficiency. As Anthony Davis continues to miss games, this rank should drop. LA is not good enough to blow anyone out these days. Rostering Rockets are risky because they get blown out quite a bit. They stay competitive more when they play at home. Today, that will be the case and they get a great matchup.

The Lakers allow the most DKpts to opposing PGs this season. KPJ will see some Russell Westbrook but the Lakers probably will stick him on one of the shooters like Eric Gordon or Garrison Mathews if he plays. No matter who guards KPJ, he is the guy that keeps this team running. Jalen Green has shot the ball a lot better recently which will help Porter’s assists. As a team, the Rockets play better at home. This has led to 2.2 more assists for Porter at home compared to on the road. He averages 4 more DKpts at home. This game should have one of the highest totals of the slate. As the point guard, he will have plenty of chances to rack up fantasy stats.

 

SF Bojan Bogdanovic $5300

UTA vs POR

Bogdanovic injured his finger a while ago. It has led to some very poor shooting games this season. Recently, it seems he has found how to shoot with the injury. He went off for 50.25Dkpts but that was against the Thunder. Today, he gets a similar matchup in the Blazers. This is another tanking team that Bojan should have no problem getting off whatever shot he wants. A lot of people thought the Jazz would blowout the Thunder but somehow that game stayed close. Even if it did not, Bogdanovic was shooting the ball so well that he would have been a great play without 4th quarter run. He is fairly priced today and has another prime spot to go off. If the Blazers keep this close, we might be looking at another 40+DKpt game for Bojan.

Bogdanovic shoots nearly 10% better from beyond the arc when he plays at home. It probably does not matter when he is playing against the Blazers but that is at least another he has got going for him. Portland allows the most DKpts to opposing SFs this season including the most 3pt makes. With the current roster that they have, their defense is going to be even worse. In games that the Jazz should win easily, Bojan has played some of his best basketball. Utah tries to get him looks from 3 and should be able to give him a lot of quality ones today. If he can knock a couple down early, he is going to have the freedom to shoot more. With the 3pt bonus on DK, he can rack points up with ease. This soft matchup should help his rebounds and assists as well.

 

PF/C Kelly Olynyk $4500

DET vs CHI

All eyes will be on Marvin Bagley today with Isaiah Stewart out at least a week. While Bagley’s ownership will be deserved, Olynyk should not go overlooked. Nikola Vucevic is questionable. If he is in, Bagley is going to have to defend him which could mean foul trouble. If he does pick up 2 quick ones, Olynyk is coming in. That would lead to a split in minutes at the center position. Since Olynyk is cheaper and will be rostered at a fraction of the ownership, he could be a tournament winner. Even if Vucevic misses this game, the Bulls have a mastermind at drawing fouls in DeMar DeRozan. Centers have the highest foul trouble risk. In situations like these, rostering the backup is an outstanding GPP move. This also just is not any backup. Olynyk is a solid fantasy producer.

Whoever ends up starting at center for the Bulls is not going to be a problem. Vucevic and Tristan Thompson are not good defenders. They also are not comfortable guarding the 3pt line. The Bulls allow the 8th-most 3pt makes to opposing centers this season. Olynyk is a good passing big man. He is not going to get a lot of potential assists since the Pistons start Cade Cunningham and Cory Joseph. With Stewart out, Olynyk should pick up additional minutes since we do not know if Bagley directly takes all of Stewart’s mins. More minutes of course means more opportunities to score fantasy points. Though he has hovered around 17mins a game, he is capable of playing more when needed. He was in foul trouble last game and Bagley played well. If one of these does not happen again, Olynyk should play 20+mins.

 

Just missed the cut: Jonas Valanciunas, Robert Williams, Greg Brown

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships