Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Mar 2, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) drives against New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett (9) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
C Joel Embiid $12000
PHI vs CHI
Yesterday, the value plays were not that great. Today, you will find no shortage of “scrubs” to fill out your lineups. The Warriors and Blazers both will be resting a lot of starters. The players who will be playing on these teams are too cheap and will be rostered in a majority of lineups. This makes it easy to roster multiple stars in a single lineup. I expect Luka Doncic to be the guy. There are a lot of stars though so whether that is fading the higher-owned stars or just rostering more of them will be one way to get different. One of them is Joel Embiid. James Harden will be back in the lineup today. He should be higher-owned than his teammate, Embiid which is one way to get leverage. Anytime Nikola Jokic is on a slate, he holds a high percentage. 12k is steep but when there is this much value, all the studs are in play.
The Bulls used to be a target down low but since the injury bug hit them, their perimeter defense has taken a huge hit. This still does not solve their interior issues. Nikola Vucevic is dealing with a hamstring issue but should play. He is not going to stop Embiid one on one but with Harden in the picture, it is going to be difficult to focus all the attention on Embiid. He has been struggling with his shot lately but is still putting up huge fantasy totals. This game has a 229 total with the 76ers favored by 6.5pts. There are a lot of games today that have blowout risk. Jokic is coming off of an OT game and now plays the Warriors B squad. The Bulls have delivered some appealing fantasy games this season. Embiid likely will not get the ownership he deserves.
PG Trae Young $10200
ATL @ DET
Another stud that should be lower-owned than the others is Trae Young. John Collins should enter the starting lineup sooner rather than later. This will give Young another option in the pick and roll game to tally up those assists. The Pistons have been very competitive lately due to Cade Cunningham’s improved play and Jerami Grant seems to have found his groove again. Detroit will also be hosting this game. Young has the same upside as all these other studs but a lower floor since his rebounding is not there like Doncic and Jokic. He is going to need a huge scoring and assist game to hit his ceiling. That of course is obtainable in any matchup for the star guard.
The Pistons allow the 3rd-most DKpts to opposing PGs. This includes allowing the 3rd-most assists, 2nd-most steals, and 5th-most rebounds. They have allowed some big games to Malcolm Brogdon and Raul Neto. Malachi Flynn probably would have put up a better fantasy total had he shot the ball more and got the closing minutes. Now again, Young is not exactly a glass-cleaner or thief. However, anything in those categories will help Young get to his ceiling game. A lot of the value might come at the guard spot. Young is only PG eligible which might be hard to fit when there is Harden, Jordan Poole, and Brandon Williams at this position. This is a similar scenario to Embiid where his team is getting healthier but the price went up. It is not going to feel good since we are paying a higher price tag for these 2 when Harden and Collins are returning. On a value-filled slate like this, the price really does not matter since you can play whoever you want.
C Mitchell Robinson $5200
NYK @ SAC
This is a back-to-back for the Knicks. It is only a short trip up north from LA to Sacramento though. This is a different Kings team than the beginning of the season because of their trade. Sacramento still wants to pay fast though with De’Aaron Fox running the show. This presents a significant pace-up spot for New York. In the last 7 games, the Kings allow the 13th-most DKpts to opposing centers. In the last 15 games, they allow the 5th-most DKpts to the position. Sabonis has played in 10 games as a King. He is not a good defender. His presence is going to keep Robinson on the floor as long as he stays out of foul trouble. There is risk here since Sabonis touches the ball a lot. This should also lead to an increase in block opportunities with the number of shots Saobnis takes in the paint. Add in Fox driving to the rim and Robinson should rack up a good amount of blocks tonight.
The Kings are playing at the 7th-fastest pace this season. The Knicks are ranked 26th. Sacramento is tied for the 2nd-worst defensive efficiency in the league. This is one of the best spots for Robinson to record a double-double with plenty of defensive stats. Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson were out on Sunday. If both of them miss again, Robinson could play a few additional minutes since the talent gap from him to the backup center becomes a lot wider. Jericho Sims is not someone who Tom Thibodeau trusts. Thibs does not really trust anyone on his bench since he always favors the veterans and plays his starters a ton of minutes. Randle is going to get eaten alive by Sabonis. Considering the Knicks blew the Clippers out Sunday night, Robinson should be ok for tonight.
PG Gabe Vincent $4800
MIA vs HOU
With Poole in the same price range and values cheaper than Vincent, he should go overlooked today. Kyle Lowry will be out again on Monday. Though he will have to share PG duties with Jimmy Butler, this is a spot where everyone can eat on Miami. The Rockets are coming off of an impressive win against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Since this is a back-to-back, we could see a number of Rockets sit out today. At the very least Eric Gordon probably rests. This Miami team should win this game fairly easily. In the last 3 Heat blowouts, Vincent has played until the end of the game. It is not a guarantee that he continues to get blowout run because he is much more important to this team with Lowry missing all these games.
The Rockets are the best fantasy matchup to target because they play at the league’s fastest pace and have the worst defensive efficiency rating. The one thing that holds them back is that they get blown out a lot. Butler is a fantastic play if this game stays competitive. That is a big if but if his ownership is not too high, I love him as a lower-owned play. Based on recent blowout data, Vincent will get his minutes no matter what. It was only last week when Vincent was chalk and busted with only 10Dkpts. Yes, the Heat are healthier but Vincent was able to put up 40.75DKpts against the Bucks with Butler active. It is not as appealing as a sub-4k play because there are a lot of players today that can score what Vincent will. In the event that Vincent goes off or the cheaper values do not play as well as we expect them to, Vincent will be the guy.
Just missed the cut: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Zach LaVine, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Keljin Blevins
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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