Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Mar 20, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) looks to drive past Utah Jazz guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (6) in the first quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
PF Julius Randle $9300
NYK vs CHA
An 11 game slate at this point in the NBA season is going to be hectic. Some teams are in full tank mode meaning there will be tons of value on this slate. There are some 10k+ priced players today. Nikola Jokic probably will be the highest-owned out of that bunch. He is the MVP and there is a huge dropoff to the second-highest-priced center. It should be easy to fit in another expensive player. Julius Randle has had a disappointing year. The Knicks are not officially eliminated from the play-in tournament yet but it seems unlikely that they make it. They are currently 4.5 games behind the Hawks for that 10th spot. Remember who their coach is though. Tom Thibodeau is not going to quit until it is over. Nothing is a guarantee but if there is a coach that is going to play his starters when it might not make sense to, it is Thibs.
Charlotte is one of the best fantasy matchups in the league. They currently hold the 9 seed so the Knicks could play hard today to stay in contention. Randle’s last big game came almost three weeks ago. This is a prime spot for him to right the ship after going 1-9 and scoring only 5 points. New York plays at the 4th-slowest pace in the league while the Hornets play at the 5th-fastest. This is a significant pace-up spot for the Knicks. Charlotte allows the 7th-most DKpts to opposing PFs this season. They struggle to guard bigs and rebound poorly. Both of these put Randle in a great spot today. Randle might have a low floor, but he has tremendous upside since he handles the ball a lot for a big. His price has stayed relatively the same for all these weeks. Pascal Siakam is only $300 more coming off of a 68.75DKpt outing. Randle should go low owned because of Siakam and the value at PF today.
SG/SF Anthony Edwards $7300/ PG/SG D’Angelo Russell $6600
MIN @ TOR
This pair of Wolves are too cheap. Maybe Edwards was priced too high before and this is actually the correct price tag but he is appealing. Both of these guys have high upside but low floors. They have had some very poor shooting games. Edwards has steeped up his playmaking recently. He has recorded at least 3 assists in every game for the past month. His athleticism allows him to grab enough boards to contribute to an overall solid stat line. Jarred Vanderbilt has been losing minutes to the benefit of Taurean Prince. Since Vanderbilt is a good rebounder, this could lead to one or two more boards for Edwards. Karl-Anthony Towns is an all-star so he could go off in any game but this is a tough spot for centers. Toronto has allowed the 7th-fewest DKpts to opposing centers on the year and the 2nd-fewest in their past 15 games. The Raptors have a lot of bigs to throw at KAT.
It is difficult to pick Edwards or Russell as there is no clear choice here. Toronto could be at full strength today meaning Edwards could be dealing with OG Anunoby defense. The Raptors are a good defensive team but Fred VanVleet is playing hurt. Maybe this allows Russell to have the better game of the two. However, Edwards plays more minutes than Russell. This probably comes down to the lineup build. If this slate has a lot of value at the guard position, Edwards would make more sense because of his SF eligibility. The opportunity cost would be lower for him than Russell. Of course, that means Russell would be low-owned since everyone is just jamming in value guards. Malik Beasley is out which should give this pair more shots. Overall, Edwards and Russell are too cheap for a game with a 229 total and a 3 point spread.
C Deandre Ayton $6900
PHX @ GSW
The public is going to underestimate this spot for Mr. Ayton. Golden State has been extremely tough over the years against centers because they force teams to go small to match them. This has not exactly been the case this season. After losing Stephen Curry to injury, this Warriors team is in shambles. Steve Kerr decided to move Kevon Looney to the bench so his mins and Draymond Green’s minutes are staggered. This also gives the starting lineup more spacing. Looney is not a big center but now the Warriors are even smaller. Ayton should be able to control the paint here. Without Curry, Ayton will have an easier time on defense. This Warriors offense should struggle unless Jordan Poole or Klay Thompson cannot miss. This gives Ayton more rebounding chances. Chris Paul is back and already playing his regular minutes. His playmaking will give Ayton some easy baskets.
Golden State are middle of the pack at defending the center position this season. In their last 15 games, they are allowing the 3rd-most DKpts to centers. Aside from playing against Nikola Jokic, they have not been playing a lot of elite centers in their past 15 games. Ayton is averaging 22 and 8 in his 3 games against the Warriors this season. For an average of 39.7DKpts, $6900 is too cheap. Clint Capela could potentially be playing without Danilo Gallinari and De’Andre Hunter leading to a higher rebounding share. Isaiah Roby could pick up ownership for $700 less with the way the Thunder are running their rotations. Then up top, Nikola Jokic exists. Ayton is in the midrange which should be hard to get to on a stars and scrubs slate.
PF/C KJ Martin $3600
HOU vs SAC
Josh Christopher will be the Rocket value to roster for many people. He is coming off of a 42DKpt game. The Rockets shut down Christian Wood, Dennis Schroder, and Eric Gordon for the season. Houston is ready to let the young guys play. While Christopher looks like a great play, KJ Martin deserves a look too. Christopher has a higher usage rate and averages 0.87FPM while Martin is at 0.84FPM. The Rockets know what they have in Garrison Mathews and Jae’Sean Tate. While these two expected starters are still young, they do not have that much room for growth. Martin is 21 years old. It makes a lot of sense to give him more minutes at the expense of Tate. Tate has not played over 28 minutes since 2-27 where he played 32 against the Clippers.
If you played DFS last season, the Rockets played with 8 guys for a string of games. Martin was a popular play during that stretch. He has a ton of upside. This is a different situation since Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green should both play. Martin does a little bit of everything except assist. With no Wood, Martin could have more rebounding opportunities. This is especially true if Alperen Sengun cannot go. Houston has Usman Garuba but they did not close last game with him after Sengun got hurt. Martin can play center and this is a matchup that Houston can get away with that. Both of these teams are not making the playoffs, but it should be a shootout.
Just missed the cut: Al Horford, Harrison Barnes, OG Anunoby, Evan Fournier, Mo Wagner, Justin Holiday, Chimezie Metu, Daniel Gafford, Kelly Oubre Jr., Olivier Sarr, Garrison Mathews
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
