Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Mar 18, 2022; San Antonio, Texas, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) dribbles against San Antonio Spurs guard Devin Vassell (24) in the first half at the AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG CJ McCollum $9200
NOP @ ATL
We got 7 games on tap today. Depending on how injuries go, a player like James Harden could become the clear chalk option. As is, Devin Booker looks to be in a great spot still playing without his backcourt partner, Chris Paul. Phoenix gets to face off against the Kings who are always a fantasy target. With Booker at $9000 and PG/SG eligibility, he figures to take ownership away from a guy like McCollum. This should keep McCollum’s ownership in check. Both of these guards grade out similarly. I would not be surprised if McCollum returned more value than Booker. Factoring in ownership, this could be a huge move to climb up the leaderboards. The Pelicans are still dealing with injuries which means McCollum also will have a bigger role than usual just like Booker. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williams remain out while Devonte’ Graham is questionable.
McCollum could be tasked with all of the point guard duties again today. He had a bit of a down game last time but the Pelicans blew the Spurs out. New Orleans will have to rely on McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas. Even though the Hawks are at home, they will be without John Collins. If this game turns into a blowout, McCollum likely had a bad game so the blowout would not even matter at that point. The assists give McCollum a much higher floor and ceiling than we are accustomed to. When he was on Portland playing without Damian Lillard, DFS players were comfortable paying over 9k for him. That was with Anfernee Simons. The Pelicans could potentially be without all of their ball handlers except Jose Alvarado. There is colossal upside for the newly acquired guard today in what should be a high-scoring affair.
SG/SF Jaylen Brown $8000
BOS @ DEN
Unless there are injuries, we usually do not target players from the Celtics and Nuggets unless their name is Nikola Jokic. Today though, there are not that many appealing games. The Thunder play the Magic. The Jazz face off against the Knicks. Though these two teams play at a snail’s pace, at least this game should be competitive. Aaron Gordon likely defends Jayson Tatum which could give Brown more opportunities. Brown took a nasty fall a few weeks ago but barely missed any time. He has looked like his usual self since the ankle injury. Brown is the #2 option for this Celtics team behind Tatum. The pairing of an Al Horford and Robert Williams frontcourt has not been an issue for Brown’s rebounding. It will be interesting to see how both teams match up as the Nuggets are much smaller after Jokic.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Brown put up 12pts, 7rebs, and 4asts for 29.75DKpts. He shot 4-17 including 0-6 from 3. It was not his best shooting night which also included going 4-7 from the free-throw line. Brown actually shoots better in road games. He shoots over 3% better leading to nearly an extra 3pts per game on the road. Boston relies on their starters heavily. He will play high 30s in minutes as long as this is a competitive game. Some of those will be with Tatum off the floor. This price range is relatively weak which is going to make Wendell Carter Jr. and Rudy Gobert popular. Fred VanVleet is also interesting because he offers upside but is playing hurt and is in a difficult matchup. Brown has not had a big game recently but he is certainly capable of delivering one whenever he steps onto the court.
C Mo Bamba $5600
ORL vs OKC
It is tough to gauge where Bamba’s ownership will end up. He has such a low floor but high ceiling. Carter is going to be back which puts Bamba at risk of losing minutes. This is a great matchup as the Thunder continue to tank and try out new starting lineups. Olivier Sarr certainly is not someone you should be worried about. He is a low-usage player which will help Bamba stay out of foul trouble. The Thunder should miss a lot of shots and even more so if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were to miss this game. This is the 1st leg of a back-to-back for OKC. All those misses will give Bamba a lot of rebounding opportunities. He takes a good amount of three-point attempts but should be able to get some looks near the basket in this one. There is some sneaky double-double upside today.
Bamba does not do anything with the assists category but everything else that a center does, he does. In addition to scoring and rebounding, he is a good shot blocker. This is a smash spot for blocks. The Thunder allow the 2nd-most blocks to opposing centers this season. It has been two months since Bamba has recorded more than 2 blocks in a game. This has all the makings of a big game. Unfortunately, we have no idea how many minutes he will play. Carter is a glass cleaner so his return certainly does not help Bamba. This though should keep Bamba’s ownership low. He is not that cheap but has the upside to absolutely go off at this price. Both the 3pt and double-double bonuses make Bamba more appealing on DK than FD. As long as he is low-owned, I like this spot for Bamba quite a bit.
SG Will Barton $5300
DEN vs BOS
The Celtics start a pair of defensive big men in Al Horford and Robert Williams. On the bench, they have Daniel Theis, another defensive-minded center. Boston is equipped with the personnel to stop most centers in the league. They are one of the best defensive teams this season. This is no ordinary big man though that they are going to be going up against in Nikola Jokic. The MVP will not be shut down but at least the Celtics are set up better than most teams to at least provide some resistance. This could open things up for the #2 option on the Nuggets, Will Barton. On the perimeter, Boston is just as talented defensively with Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. For a regular-season game, I am not worried about individual matchups. This team is going to still put up points.
The returns of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are on the horizon. Until then, Barton has to step up. He has done a serviceable job this season but has struggled recently. He committed crucial turnovers against the Raptors and has shot poorly the past two games. Maybe a trip back home can fix these problems. Barton has some major home/road splits. He shoots 6% better at home. The matchup might be tough, but Barton is capable of making any shot. His price is dropping so the time to jump on is now. He is going to be low-owned but offers solid upside in this price range. He is no longer SF eligible which makes it harder to fit into lineups. That will lower his ownership even more. He should be single-digit owned today.
Just missed the cut: Fred VanVleet, Clint Capela, Franz Wagner, Donte DiVincenzo
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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