Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Mar 14, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma (33) brings the ball down the court against the Golden State Warriors during the first quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
PF Kyle Kuzma $8000
WAS vs LAL
We have a 3 game slate today with 4 of the 6 teams in action on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. The 2 studs priced above 10k today are Luka Doncic and LeBron James both played yesterday and are definitely rest candidates. James is listed as questionable pretty much every time the Lakers are playing. He has missed a couple of games though so he is not a lock to play every game. The Lakers played an OT game in Toronto last night. If one of these studs is out then it is chalk city. I am assuming they both play since we do not have the news right now. Whether the Lakers rest anyone, the Wizards are in a good spot today. Kristaps Porzingis should rest as this is a back-to-back for the Wizards as well. That means more usage for the rest of the Wizards. He also is a better rebounder than expected starter Daniel Gafford and backup Thomas Bryant. Kuzma should see a boost to his boards as those have been down lately.
There is of course the revenge narrative although this is not the first time Kuzma will be facing off against his former team. That is not the reason for my recommendation though. His price has dropped to reflect his reduced role with Kristaps Porzingis healthy. Kuzma has stayed under 40DKpts for over a week. Still at 8K, many will think this is overpriced. Factoring in that Porzingis sits and this matchup, this is a great tournament play. There are only 3 games on this slate. The PF position is LeBron and then everyone else. As long as LeBron plays, Kuzma’s ownership should be low. He has really shown off his playmaking ever since Bradley Beal went down. In addition to his scoring ability, he rebounds well. All of this gives him 50+Dkpt upside as long as he can shoot just a little bit better. If Porzingis plays, then that obviously changes things.
SG/SF Kelly Oubre Jr. $4400
CHA vs DAL
The game log certainly does not do Oubre any favors. In his last 4 games, he has played less than 20mins and recorded no more than 22DKpts. Oubre’s price has dropped $1200 since that down game on 3/9. We have seen how the Hornets run their lineups. James Borrego will roll with the hot hand. In the games that Oubre plays well, he is rewarded with more minutes. This makes him the perfect tournament play. He has 10x upside at this price. The matchup is not the best. Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the league with the 6th-best defensive efficiency rating this season. However, there are only 3 games. Besides the Wizards and the Mavericks, no team has a good matchup. There are some obvious chalk plays today depending on how the injuries break. Doncic, Mobley, Bey, Plumlee, Kispert, Gafford, Hachimura all could possibly be high-owned. Oubre’s teammate Plumlee looks like a strong play which could cause people who roster Plumlee to fade Oubre.
SF is a wasteland today. If Porzingis rests, Kispert would pick up ownership as a value. Oubre’s dual position eligibility makes him appealing for that SF spot. While Kispert is in a good matchup, he is shooting-dependent. If he is missing his shots, he will be a bust. Paying a little bit more for Oubre would be a big-time pivot. He averages over 2DKpts more at home than on the road. Oubre does not assist well but can have some high rebounding totals. Some of his better games have come against tough opponents such as the Cavaliers and the Celtics. Oubre is not a priority. If you need some salary savings or a way to get different, Oubre is a terrific option. He offers more upside than Cory Joseph and Kelly Olynyk who are similarly priced. Oubre is on an island at SF unless the Cavaliers rest someone to make Cedi Osman viable.
PG Ish Smith $4100
WAS vs LAL
Another Wizard that stands to benefit from an expected load management game for Kristaps Porzingis is Ish Smith. He serves as the backup PG but plays similar minutes to the starter, Raul Neto. Coming off the bench is a plus for Smith because he gets his minutes staggered with the higher usage guys in Kuzma. Smith’s minutes are a bit like Oubre’s. He earns more minutes if he is playing well. This makes it simple since if he is playing well, he will get those extra minutes to put up a possible ceiling game. If he is struggling, he will not play many minutes but it would not matter anyway since his score is too low. Smith is a very capable backup PG. He can put up some high assist totals but his shooting numbers are encouraging. That might sound counterintuitive as he has been shooting poorly. However, we do not expect Ish Smith to be taking so many shots. Seeing double-digit shot attempts in three straight games is a very good sign.
Those three games have come against tough matchups in the Warriors, Nuggets, and Knicks. Today he gets a much better spot against the fast-paced Lakers. This game has the highest total at 230.5 with the Wizards favored by 1.5pts. I am not sure if the Wizards should be favored so that might suggest James will rest. Either way, Smith has 30+DKpt upside. That gives him a possible huge return for this salary. The Lakers allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PGs including the 5th-most assists which fits Smith’s game. If he continues to put up 10+ shots, it is only a matter of time until he shoots better than 25%. With his teammates in Kispert, Rui, and Gafford being possible chalk values, Smith should be lower-owned than he should be because rostering all of them does not seem optimal.
PF/C Maxi Kleber $3900
DAL @ CHA
On a different slate, Kleber could possibly be chalk. Everyone in the DFS community is familiar with Kleber since he always seems to be priced under 4k when Porzingis was on the Mavericks and would rest allowing Kleber to be a smash play. He should not get a lot of attention today because there is Daniel Gafford at the same price point. Hachimura is $300 less at PF. Both of them look like great plays. Factoring in ownership, Kleber is intriguing. He gets a fantastic matchup himself against the Hornets. Kleber mostly backs up Powell at center. Charlotte allows the 3rd-most DKpts to the position this season. The Hornets play at the 3rd-fastest pace with a bottom-third defensive efficiency rating. He is a capable pick-and-roll defender which allows him to close games for his defense. His shooting ability also gives Doncic the necessary floor spacing as opposed to Powell who does not have the same kind of range.
Yes, Kleber’s game log looks ugly. This is strictly a tournament play. There are players around him at the same position who are going to be possibly 10x more owned than him. The matchup is as good as it gets. He has a single-digit floor but we are targeting upside. Kleber certainly has that, especially against the Hornets. Similar to Oubre and Ish, Kleber is a high upside value play. If you already have multiple Wizards in your lineup, then do not pick Smith and go with Oubre or Kleber. The three of them cover all 8 positions on DK. There is no need to play them all together. If you are too chalky, rostering just one of these guys will give you the needed lineup differentiation. Keep in mind this is a 3 game slate so the ownership will be concentrated.
Just missed the cut: Caris LeVert, Montrezl Harrell, Raul Neto, Deni Avdija, Jalen McDaniels, Lamar Stevens, Wenyen Gabriel
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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