Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Mar 11, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) reacts to a basket by Kevin Huerter (not pictured) during the second half against the LA Clippers at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
PG Trae Young $10100
ATL vs IND
We have a 5 game slate today but there will be no shortage of injuries that we have to follow. Less games means less studs. Most of the expensive players are in projected blowouts. Joel Embiid is the highest-priced player today in a game where the 76ers should win easily against the Magic. The same blowout concern exists with his teammate, James Harden. Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are up against one another. The Grizzlies could get Dillon Brooks back and be at full strength against the tanking Thunder. All of that leaves Trae Young. The Pacers will be on the second leg of a back-to-back but they have stayed competitive recently. The Hawks could be without John Collins. There is something about Atlanta playing at home. Young shoots over 4% better leading to 3 more real pts and 2.4 more DKpts at home.
Young has a 34.3% usage rate averaging 1.39FPM. If Collins misses this game, those rates jump to 36.3% and 1.44FPM. I am interested in Young regardless of Collins’ status. On one hand, if Collins is out, Young sees those boosts above. If he plays, he helps Young turn those passes into assists. His absence would likely mean more Danilo Gallinari minutes. He is someone who can get his own shot more than Collins can. Young is the clear leader of this team. Indiana is allowing the 9th-most DKpts to opposing PGs this season. When Young’s price creeps above 10k, people do not like to roster him. Today, he is perfectly fine as there is no Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, or Giannis Antetokounmpo to roster. Devin Booker should pick up a lot of ownership with Chris Paul still out. Young costs more but you should get much lower ownership.
C Jonas Valanciunas $8300
NOP vs HOU
JoVal will not be under 10% but there are many reasons as to why his ownership will be lower than it should be. One, he is coming off of a dud. A lot of people expected a huge game from him with all the starters out for New Orleans. Instead, he put up 22.5DK pts in a blowout loss. Now, his price increased $500. With many of his teammates out again today, people will be going back to the Pelicans. Some of them remain underpriced like Jaxson Hayes. At some point, people will have to choose which Pelicans to not roster. There are a lot of intriguing pieces since the Pelicans get to play the Rockets. JoVal might have been a disappointment on Friday, but now he gets the best matchup for centers. The Rockets allow the most DKpts to opposing centers. They play at a fast pace with no defense.
Taking CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Brandon Ingram off the court this season, JoVal has a 25.9% usage rate averaging 1.24FPM. He has insane upside on any given night. With so many of the team’s offensive weapons out, he is going to see a lot more opportunity. This game should be competitive as they are playing at home and it is Houston. The Pelicans are favored by 5.5pts in a 227.5 total. He should see 30+ mins if he stays out of foul trouble. If this game does get lopsided, it most likely means JoVal went bonkers in 3 quarters anyway. For a center, his FG% has not looked great recently. This is the perfect spot to get back to his high FG% days. With a poor team on the other side, that should lead to a juicy rebound total with all the missed shots. We likely see more Hayes and JoVal mins staggered which would benefit both of them.
C Deandre Ayton $7200
PHX vs LAL
If JoVal ends up being popular or you want to roster another center priced closed to JoVal, Ayton should be the guy. Some thought Ayton would benefit with CP3 out. While Ayton could take on more shot volume, CP3’s absence benefits the guards more. Cam Payne is playing basically like Chris Paul right now. His pass-first mentality along with Booker’s playmaking still allows Ayton to play his usual game. The Lakers are still without Anthony Davis. They really do not want to play a true center. Ayton should be able to control the glass. Phoenix should be ready for this game as at it seems just about every team is at their peak when they play the Lakers. For a center, Ayton has a lower floor than most. Since we are focused on tournaments, that is not a concern. He has 50+DKpt upside.
Ayton put up 27.25DKpts last game at this same $7200 price tag. He only played 30mins since the Suns went on a run with the bench unit. This game has a 228.5 total with the Suns favored by 8.5 at home. Ayton will see more than 30mins as long as the bench unit does not go crazy again. One thing of note is that Bismack Biyombo played some minutes alongside Ayton last game. The Suns faced the Raptors on Friday. Toronto has been playing a lot of big lineups so this pairing made sense. Today, I do not expect this to happen with the Lakers in town. That move was likely matchup-based. LA uses LeBron James as the center at times which would not be ideal to have 2 centers out on the court together. Taking out a center and replacing him with someone much shorter helps Ayton’s rebounding share.
PF Jae’Sean Tate $4700
HOU @ NOP
The PF spot today should be filled by LeBron James and Jaxson Hayes. Hayes is $4700. With a clear play for the same price, Tate should be low-owned. If you have a lot of Pelicans in your lineup, replacing Hayes for Tate is an easy swap and it gives you a run-back piece. Tate is not typically someone who roster when the Rockets are at full strength. Houston is expected to have Christian Wood back today. Tate himself has missed the last two games. Since that is only a short absence, he should handle his usual workload. The games before he got hurt do not look pretty. He has been the victim of blowouts and also left a game and did not return. His price has dropped significantly so I am interested even with the Rockets being healthy. He is not a usage guy as he does a bit of everything when he is out there.
This does not seem like the best spot for Tate. New Orleans has been very stout at defending the PF spot this season. Herbert Jones is a tremendous defender. The Pelicans have been a bit softer though against PFs since they inserted Jaxson Hayes in the lineup for Devontae’ Graham. With all the guys out on New Orleans, this defense is going to be weaker than usual. The PF spot is beyond weak today. Factoring in what likely will be single-digit ownership, Tate is a sneaky play. I am not prioritizing Tate by any means. If he is your last guy in, or for the reasons mentioned above, I am more than fine with it.
Just missed the cut: Tobias Harris, Jaren Jackson Jr., Franz Wagner, De’Andre Hunter, Jose Alvarado, Theo Maledon, Terrence Ross
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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