DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate - Mar. 30th, 2022

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 03/30:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: 213.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -4.5

We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic had a huge night against a bad Lakers team last night and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to on the high-end here. The Cavs aren’t a great matchup, but it’s pretty obvious he’s matchup proof at this point. I’ll continue to be underweight on Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, as their consistency is hindered with Doncic in there. If you want to go there in tournaments I won’t talk you off of him, but not really priorities for me. Reggie Bullock has been playing all of the minutes he can handle and has been in solid form, however, on a huge slate, I’m not sure how much we’ll need to get to him here. Then we can round this team out with Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith as secondary tournament options as well. From the Cavs, they’ll be without Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen here, so we should see Kevin Love slide into the starting lineups and will look like an elite option any time he’s guaranteed minutes like he should be tonight. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:

• Darius Garland – 29.7% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
• Kevin Love – 27.0% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
• Lauri Markkanen – 21.4% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
• Caris LeVert – 24.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
• Cedi Osman – 22.9% usage rate; 0.96 fpm

Love will be my clear-cut number one option from this team assuming he starts with that per-minute production at a really nice price tag. The Mavs frontcourt doesn’t exactly scare on defense either. The price tag is up on Darius Garland but he’s played at least 40 minutes in four of his last five games and will be a solid GPP option, his price is much more doable on FanDuel where he’s $1k cheaper.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kevin Love

4-star play: Darius Garland, Lauri Markkanen, Caris LeVert

Deeper Value: Cedi Osman

GPP Sleeper: Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Reggie Bullock, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith

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Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Was -3.5

Starting with the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. will miss this one along with Jalen Suggs out again as well. Cole Anthony is a guy I like in these situations, he’ll get a production boost from Carter Jr. being out and more minutes security with Suggs out. He has a 26.4% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute with these two off of the court this season, it’s also a nice matchup against this Wizards team. Franz Wagner and Mo Bamba both look like solid options in this price range, they’ve both been in solid form and Bamba is averaging 29.13 FanDuel points per game with Carter Jr. off of the court this season. Then Chuma Okeke should continue to start as well in Carter Jr.’s place and will look like a solid mid-range option in a nice matchup here. From the Wizards, it sounds like Kyle Kuzma will continue to be out here meaning more production for a lot of this team. The main piece being Kristaps Porzingis who has a 32.7% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute with Kuzma off of the court this season. I’m going to continue to have interest in Deni Avdija as well, the guy has been sneaky consistent with at least 30 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and gets a nice matchup here. Rui Hachimura and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope aren’t sexy DFS names but are in play as secondary GPP options at the very least. Then we can round this team out with Tomas Satoransky who should continue to start at point guard at a cheap price tag. He’s been solid since taking over the starting job for Washington.

5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis

4-star play: Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Franz Wagner, Chuma Okeke, Deni Avdija, Tomas Satoransky

Deeper Value: Tomas Satoransky

GPP Sleeper: Mo Wagner, Chuma Okeke, Rui Hachimura, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

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Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 231.5

Vegas Spread: Den -9.5

Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will be able to do whatever he wants in this one and has at least 67 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. He’ll look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate. I don’t have any issues with getting any of Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, or Monte Morris as a filler piece to round out your lineups, but none of them will be priorities for me. It’s worth noting that Gordon and Barton have been in much better form as of late. Then, I think you can add Bones Hyland to that list as well, but he’s another one of those guys that I don’t think we’ll need on this slate. From the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again for the sake of this article. If he does play, these next few guys will all see a decrease in average production with him on the court. Tyrese Haliburton should stand to benefit and has a 20.8% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and is coming off of a huge game against the Hawks last time out. The price tag on Buddy Hield is going to be incredibly hard for me to get to here but the minutes should be there with the number of questionable tags the Pacers have coming into this one. We’ll need news on the frontcourt as well with Goga Bitadze and Isaiah Jackson both questionable as well. I kind of hope these guys just take the day to rest so we can fire up Jalen Smith and Oshae Brissett in all formats again.

***Below assumes Brogdon, Bitadze, and Jackson are OUT – watch the Breaking News Feed for updates***

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Oshae Brissett, Jalen Smith

Deeper Value: Terry Taylor, Keifer Sykes

GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Bones Hyland, Terry Taylor, Keifer Sykes

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Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 214.5

Vegas Spread: Bos -4.5

This game is right there with that Cavs game as having the lowest implied total on the slate, both of these teams play great defense, and the Heat love to slow things down. Jimmy Butler had a solid bounce-back game last time out but has been somewhat volatile as of late, I don’t think I’ll get to him in a tougher matchup on a big slate. That said, I won’t talk you off of him if you want to get to him in tournaments. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo who has struggled in this matchup averaging just 31 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Celtics this season. Tyler Herro should be good to go here and looked good on the court last time out, he’s a fine GPP option if you want to get some exposure to this one. Then I’ll have no issue with rounding out this team with Kyle Lowry as a secondary option in all formats. From the Celtics, they should get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum back in this one, but probably not guys that I’ll love getting to against this Heat defense. They’ll be without Robert Williams for the next month or so meaning we should continue to see Grant Williams in the starting lineup. He’s not a huge per minute guy at just 0.69 fantasy points per minute with Williams off of the court this season but will be a fine value option if nothing else opens up on this slate. Al Horford is over a fantasy point per minute with Williams off of the court and will be a fine option here, but I kind of get the feeling that they’re trying to save his legs for the playoffs. Marcus Smart and Derrick White both had big games last time out but with Tatum and Brown back they’ll take a hit and will be secondary GPP options here for me.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Grant Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White

I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!

Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 226.0

Vegas Spread: Cha -2.0

Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has been in more consistent form as of late with at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and seems like the type of guy that will get up for a game at the Garden, I like him in all formats here. Terry Rozier has cooled off a bit as of late with the consistency of Ball. I’ve been leaning toward Rozier since the all-star break due to the discount you get on him, but if Ball is going to continue to produce, he’d be my preferred option. Miles Bridges will continue to be a solid option in all formats as well, he’s averaging 50.1 DraftKings points in three games against the Knicks this season. Then we get to the trio of Montrezl Harrell, PJ Washington, and Mason Plumlee who will share center minutes. My favorite option would be Washington due to the minutes security, but they’re all GPP guys. I’m starting to fall off of the Harrell train fully as well, he’s seen under 15 minutes in three of his last four games, so he may be just a straight-up fade for me. The minutes have been all over the place for Kelly Oubre as of late which warrants his current price tag, if you want to get a sprinkle of him in MME that’s fine, but not a guy that I love. From the Knicks, Julius Randle has been a guy I haven’t been able to get right all season long and will be a GPP option again for me here. The matchup is nice against this Hornets frontcourt, but again, more of a tournament guy. I have no issue getting back to RJ Barrett either, he’s been in great form since the All-Star break. He has nearly a 30% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the last four weeks. I’ll be lower on the rest of this team with Randle back in there, but guys like Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson, and Evan Fournier are fine GPP options.

5-star play: LaMelo Ball

4-star play: Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett

Deeper Value: Kelly Oubre

GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier

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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Tor -3.0

Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has been held under 40 fantasy points in three straight games and will be more of a secondary option for me at this price tag. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell have been extremely hard to get right as of late, but are fine GPP options if you want to get risky. Patrick Beverley has cooled off a bit as of late but is still around that $5k price range which he’s been able to crush for most of the season and will be a fine secondary filler option. Then you can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt as a tournament option. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam had a big game last time out and gets a great matchup with this Wolves frontcourt. He’ll look like a nice option in all formats with at least 52 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. The minutes look like they’re back to being fully back for Fred VanVleet but man I don’t love the price tag on him, it’s much better on FanDuel and that’s where I’ll get my exposure to on him. I’ll have no issue with Scottie Barnes as well, he should continue to play big minutes as well. I don’t love the price tag on him, but if you land on him I won’t talk you off of him. OG Anunoby got back up to 40 minutes last game and has a really nice price tag, he’s a solid secondary option in all formats. Gary Trent Jr. will be more of a GPP guy with these guys mostly back, but the minutes will be there for him, and can light it up in a hurry. Lastly, Precious Achiuwa is a fine GPP guy as well, the minutes should continue to be in the 20-25 range, and gets a nice matchup here.

5-star play: Pascal Siakam

4-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa

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Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 233.0

Vegas Spread: Sac -2.5

Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox will be out again for this one meaning we should see guys like Davion Mitchell and Damian Jones again. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court over the past four weeks:

• Davion Mitchell – 26.2% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
• Damian Jones – 17.9% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
• Donte DiVincenzo – 21.2% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
• Harrison Barnes – 19.3% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
• Chimezie Metu – 23.3% usage rate; 0.81 fpm

These would be my main options from Sacramento, I don’t really have a ton of interest in guys like Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb who either aren’t great per minute guys or will see volatile minutes. This is an elite matchup against a bad Rockets defense, so I would imagine I have a good amount of exposure to this team at this time. From the Rockets, Christian Wood will be out for this one again, so expect to see Alperen Sengun in the starting lineup if he can get over his questionable tag. Assuming he starts, he’ll look like a solid option and has averaged 31.77 FanDuel points per game in seven games without Wood this season. The matchup sets up well, so no issue getting up to his elevated price tag either. Jalen Green has been really good as of late with at least 37.5 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will be a guy I like in all formats again here. Kevin Porter Jr. is also coming off of a big game against the Spurs and will be a solid option in this one as well. Then we can round this team out with Jae’Sean Tate who could see a higher rebound equity with Wood off of the court at a nice price tag.

5-star play: Davion Mitchell, Alperen Sengun

4-star play: Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Trey Lyles, Harrison Barnes, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter, Jae’Sean Tat

Deeper Value: Chimezie Metu, Jae’Sean Tate

GPP Sleeper: Chimezie Metu, Justin Holiday, Josh Christopher

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Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Atl -12.0

Starting with the Hawks, we’re waiting on a bit of news from De’Andre Hunter and Danilo Gallinari, as they both come in as questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re full go’s. I have no issue getting to either of them as secondary options especially with John Collins still out. Trae Young looks like an awesome option here, this Thunder team has the defensive skill set of a bad AAU team right now. Clint Capela has bounced back in a big way over his last two games, I don’t have an issue riding out the heater with him in a great matchup here. Lastly, Kevin Huerter has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four and will look like a solid secondary option to round out the Hawks. Then we get to this sad Thunder team… they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander again and Tre Mann comes in as questionable. We’ll probably end up having to roster a couple of these Thunder guys especially if Mann is forced to miss… it would leave them with eight active players again. Pretty much the whole team had a good game last time out against the Blazers and get a great matchup again here. Guys like Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, and Isaiah Roby are the options I feel most comfortable with. That said, Aaron Wiggins and these ancillary pieces performed well relative to their salaries as well… keep an eye on that Mann news.

5-star play: Trae Young, Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Roby, Tre Mann

4-star play: Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Aaron Wiggins

Deeper Value: Lindy Waters, Vit Krejci, Olivier Sarr

GPP Sleeper: De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Lindy Waters, Vit Krejci, Olivier Sarr, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Use the 2021-22 NBA DFS Sim Model and build stronger lineups for cash games and/or large-field tournaments! Run the slate 1000 times and see who comes out on top most often, who creates value, and who is most likely to post that gpp-winning outlier…

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Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -6.0

Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker came back down to Earth last time out and is probably a guy that I’ll be lower on going forward until his price tag adjusts to Chris Paul being back. Speaking of Chris Paul, he hasn’t shown any signs of rust and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here, he’s scored at least 46 DraftKings points in both games since coming back from injury. Deandre Ayton is averaging 38.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Warriors this season and gets a nice price tag in this one. Then the rest of this team is fine for GPP fillers, but not anyone that I think we need to get to on an 11-game slate. From the Warriors, we kind of know the drill on them by now, Steph Curry will be out and the price tags on Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are starting to adjust to that. They’ll still be my favorite options on the team, but man the prices are starting to get hard to get to. If I were to pick one it would probably be Poole, but I’d be splitting hairs at that point. I don’t see a need to get to Andrew Wiggins with these guys back either, so we can fade him on this slate unless you want to include him in your MME player pool. We probably won’t see full Draymond Green until the playoffs, he’s been around 25-30 minutes as of late, but I really want to see him pushing 35 minutes to have much interest since he’s not a big usage guy.

5-star play: Chris Paul

4-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga

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New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Nop -13.0

Starting with the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas comes into this one as questionable, and if they were ever going to rest him tonight would be the night against the tanking Blazers. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but I think there’s a strong chance that he could just take a day off here. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernangomez would immediately benefit from him sitting. We get a CJ McCollum return to Portland here and would be a guy I’m okay getting to as a secondary option, I just hesitate to get to guys against the Blazers due to the blowout factor, but there’s no denying it’s a great matchup. Brandon Ingram has been in great form as of late with at least 41 DraftKings points in four straight games and has a really nice price tag. Then guys like Devonte’ Graham and Herb Jones are more filler pieces than anything on a big slate. From the Blazers, yuck. They’re extremely similar to the Thunder in that the starting lineup is going to be gross, but man they can produce some value at their respective price tags… raise your hand if you thought we’d see an $8.1k Drew Eubanks at any point this season, well we’ve arrived. He had a huge game last time out, but man I don’t think I can get to this price on him. Brandon Williams is another guy that dropped a 50 burger last time out. He’ll look like a solid option in all formats. CJ Elleby and Keon Johnson will look like solid secondary pieces as well, while Kris Dunn just can’t seem to get over 25 minutes making him more of a tournament option. Greg Brown was out last game but should return tonight and should start at a really nice price tag making him a great option to round out this Blazers team.

5-star play: Brandon Williams, Greg Brown, Brandon Ingram

4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, CJ McCollum, Drew Eubanks, CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson

Deeper Value: Greg Brown

GPP Sleeper: Devonte’ Graham, Herb Jones, Jaxson Hayes, Kris Dunn, Drew Eubanks, CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, Ben McLemore

NBA Lock of the Day: Kevin Love (DK – $6.9k; FD – $5.3k)

We’re going to go wayyyyy back to the first game on the slate and get to some Kevin Love tonight. The Cavs will not only be without Jarrett Allen, but Evan Mobley as well which should lead to Love getting the start. The big issue with Love is always the minutes, but they should be locked in tonight. He has a 27% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season, so we can see that he’s a per-minute monster with these guys out. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action.  And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit.  Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…