Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 03/02:
Feb 27, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) and center Joel Embiid (21) greet each other after the New York Knicks call a timeout in the fourth quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -3.0
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without Gordon Hayward so expect more minutes for guys like Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington. LaMelo Ball is probably more of a tournament guy for me in this matchup and the volatility he’s shown especially in a tougher matchup against this Cavs team. I don’t love the price tag on Terry Rozier, but he’s clearly proven he can pay it off, that being said, I just don’t love targeting guys against this Cavs defense. Miles Bridges has performed well against them on the season averaging 41.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against Cleveland this season. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell has cooled off a bit with back-to-back games under 20 fantasy points, the minutes should continue to be there for him however which makes me think we can go right back to him. They’ll also need his size against a big frontcourt. From the Cavaliers, they’ll be without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, while Darius Garland comes in as questionable which is pretty sizeable news that we’ll get before lock. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. If Garland is forced to miss again we will get Brandon Goodwin starting at point guard and looks like a solid option in a great matchup coming off of a nice game last time out. I like the matchup for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley quite a bit, I’ll continue to target big men against the Hornets. Allen is averaging 45.5 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hornets this season. Kevin Love is hard to trust in cash games but when he gets the minutes he’s been great with a 26.9% usage rate and 1.31 fantasy points per minute with LeVert and Garland off of the court this season and looks like a nice option assuming Garland is out. Lauri Markkanen being back hurts his minute’s security a bit but still a guy I like for GPPs, the same can be said for Markkanen… although he’s played back-to-back games with 35 minutes.
5-star play: Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland (if active)
4-star play: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, Evan Mobley, Brandon Goodwin (if starting)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Montrezl Harrell, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen, Cedi Osman
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Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
We saw this matchup the last time these two teams played so we have some of a sample size to look at. Starting with the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon missed this game last time out but returned the game before to play 29 minutes which is a bit more than I was expecting. I would think he’s back over the 30-minute mark again here and nearly back to being a full go. The price tag does look nice for him in a great matchup with a bad Magic defense. Brogdon back will impact the production of Tyrese Haliburton, that being said, he still dropped 45 DraftKings points last time he was on the court with him against the Celtics. I’ll probably be lower on Haliburton until his price tag comes down a bit, but he should still be productive, I’m just not sure he can continue doing what he’s been doing at a consistent rate. Buddy Hield should still continue to see massive minutes, we may see Chris Duarte cut into some of those, but not enough to really matter for me. The frontcourt should look like Oshae Brissett and Goga Bitadze starting and both are solid mid-range options in a great matchup with the Magic. From the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba are guys I like again here as well against a bad Pacers defense. Carter Jr. is your cash option, while Bamba is more volatile and better for GPPs, but coming off of a great game last time out. Cole Anthony looks like a good option again here, I love targeting point guards against the Pacers and we know the upside is there for him even coming off of a bad game against this team last time out. Then the minutes for Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner should continue to be there, if I’m picking one it’s likely Suggs due to the consistent production he’s shown and had a nice bounce-back game last in 27 minutes last game.
5-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Oshae Brissett, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Duarte, Goga Bitadze, Mo Bamba, Franz Wagner
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -10.5
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle has been held under 40 fantasy points in three straight games and gets a tough matchup with Embiid and company down low here. That being said, he’s averaged 45.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Sixers this season, so I guess I won’t talk you off of him if you want to go here. RJ Barrett has been in great form and playing all the minutes he can handle. The price has come up, but I would be okay with him here as well. I can never stomach playing Evan Fournier but if you want to go there in GPPs, I suppose that’s fine. Alec Burks has played 34 minutes in back-to-back games and should continue to start with Kemba Walker sidelined for the rest of the season, I do like him in the mid-range. Lastly, they’ll need Mitchell Robinson’s size down low against Embiid, and is a solid GPP option if you need one at this price range. From the Sixers, In James Harden’s first game with the team, he had quite the outing with an 80 fantasy point game. He didn’t seem to impact Joel Embiid all that much either as he dropped his own 60 fantasy points. That being said, they get a much worse matchup for DFS purposes here, but guys I won’t talk you off of if you want to get to them. Tyrese Maxey looked solid as well, and Doc Rivers did say he wants at least two of Harden, Embiid, Maxey, and Harris on the court at all times, so the minutes will still be there obviously, it’s just the usage and production we’re worried about. I’ll probably be lower on Maxey and Tobias Harris here for that reason in a slower-paced matchup with the Knicks.
5-star play: James Harden, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Alec Burks, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -12.5
Starting with the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell has been in solid form and gets an elite matchup with a bad Rockets defense and looks like a guy we can get to pretty confidently here. Rudy Gobert should be able to do whatever he wants against this Rockets frontcourt as well and looks like a solid option in all formats. We kind of know what we’re getting from Mike Conley at this point in the season, he’s a fantasy point per minute guy and a solid option in all formats. Then I would consider Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson more of GPP options due to the volatility they show, but the matchup is right. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. missed the past couple of games which has led Dennis Schroder to slide into the starting lineup. Schroder has had a 21.9% usage rate and 0.94 fantasy points with the Rockets with Porter Jr. out, his game last night didn’t help those numbers. Porter Jr. comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for status updates on him here. The matchup is tough for Christian Wood against Gobert down low and would be more of a tournament option for me in this spot. Jae’Sean Tate has looked good as of late and a guy I don’t mind falling on, but not a guy I’m prioritizing by any means. Then we can round this team out with Jalen Green who has been in good form, I’ll probably have more interest in him if Porter Jr. is forced to miss, however.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kevin Porter Jr., Jae’Sean Tate
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Jalen Green
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.0
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler has cooled off a bit as of late but feels like he always has big games against the Bucks and a guy that I have no issue going right back to here. Especially now with the potentially increased usage with Kyle Lowry out. Bam Adebayo has been on a heater as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in four straight games and will be a guy I continue to ride it out with tonight even with a down game last time out. I will say, the matchup is a bit tougher against Giannis down low, but the pace in this one will be enough for me to overlook that. I’ll have no issue with Tyler Herro as well with Lowry out, he has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off of the court this season, he’s another guy that seems to kill the Bucks. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in great form as of late but this is a tough spot, I just hate targeting guys against this Heat team that plays slow and great defense. He’s struggled in two games against them already this season averaging just 34.3 DraftKings points per game. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are fine options as well, they won’t be guys that I prioritize but wouldn’t have any issues falling on them to fill out your builds. Bobby Portis got bit by the blowout bug last time out but still had a nice game, I would be okay with falling on him as well.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Tyler Herro, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value: Grayson Allen
GPP Sleeper: PJ Tucker, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -5.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis was able to salvage a decent fantasy night last time out, I would have no issue going back to him in this spot again tonight. De’Aaron Fox has picked it up a bit and I do think the Haliburton trade kicked his production into gear a bit as he seems to be playing with a little more sense of urgency. He has at least 56 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. Harrison Barnes looks like a solid secondary option if you happened to fall on him to complete your builds. Then the rest of this team isn’t getting enough consistent run for me to have a ton of interest in guys like Davion Mitchell, Jeremy Lamb, Donte DiVincenzo, Justin Holiday, etc., they may just play the hot hand of these wing guys. From the Pelicans, CJ McCollum continues to be their best producer since joining the team and a guy I have no issue going back to in a great matchup with the Kings. Jonas Valanciunas should be able to do whatever he wants down low in this one and we know he has a massive ceiling. I’ll have interest in Brandon Ingram any time he’s under $8k which he is on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so a guy I like in a great matchup. I don’t have a problem going back to Jaxson Hayes either, he will continue to start and play good minutes assuming he can stay out of foul trouble. Then we can round this team out with GPP plays like Devonte’ Graham and Herbert Jones.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, CJ McCollum
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, Jaxson Hayes
Deeper Value: Devonte’ Graham, Donte DiVincenzo
GPP Sleeper: Davion Mitchell, Donte DiVincenzo, Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday, Devonte’ Graham, Herbert Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Den -13.0
Starting with the Thunder, they’ll be without Josh Giddey again in this one meaning we can go right back to the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander well. He has a 36.7% usage rate with 1.61 fantasy points per minute with Giddey and Lu Dort off of the court this season and looks like an elite play again. Darius Bazley has been a bit more volatile since the all-star break and gets a tougher matchup with Jokic down low here, so probably more of a tournament option for me. Tre Mann has replaced Giddey in the starting lineup and has looked great and now has at least 34 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Lastly, I have no problem going back to Isaiah Roby but would want him to be in the starting lineup, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for that lineup. From the Nuggets, who’s going to slow down Nikola Jokic in this spot? Roby? Old Derrick Favors? He should do whatever he wants tonight and looks like one of the top raw options on the slate. Aaron Gordon and Will Barton had tough games last time out, but I don’t have a problem going back to them as tournament options in a nice matchup with the Thunder. Monte Morris had a tough go of it last time out as well, but I’m willing to overlook it as he lost minutes to a blowout as well. Lastly, DeMarcus Cousins had a big game but isn’t going to play a ton of minutes, so I don’t think I can get to him at this price tag.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, DeMarcus Cousins
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -13.0
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons has cooled off a bit but mostly due to losing minutes in his last two games because of blowouts against the Nuggets and Warriors… that being said, he doesn’t get much of a better matchup here. Josh Hart is averaging 35.8 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns this season and a guy I have no issue with if you land on him here. I would expect Drew Eubanks to continue to start at the center spot for the Blazers. I don’t think he’s a good basketball player, but minutes are king in NBA DFS, so no issues with him as a value option at the center position tonight. Then guys like CJ Elleby, Trendon Watford, and Greg Brown are all fine tournament values if you want to sprinkle exposure to them, they’ll all see 20+ minutes with Justise Winslow out again. From the Suns, Devin Booker will continue to look like a great option with Chris Paul out for the near future. He has at least 53 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and has a 33.4% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute with Paul off of the court this season. Deandre Ayton should be able to do whatever he wants down low against Eubanks and looks like a nice option as well. The wing trio of Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and Mikal Bridges look like solid options here as well, I would like them in that order with Johnson being my favorite option. Lastly, it sounds like Aaron Holiday will return here, however, he hasn’t started with Paul out, so he should continue to come off of the bench.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Drew Eubanks, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: CJ Elleby, Trendon Watford, Greg Brown, Aaron Holiday
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NBA Lock of the Day: Malcolm Brogdon (DK – $7.1k; FD – $6.3k)
I love this price point for Brogdon here, he returned two games ago after sitting out the back end of a back-to-back and now gets a great matchup with a bad Magic defense. We’re used to seeing him in the mid-$8k range and now we’re seeing him at a heavy discount on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I don’t expect he’s limited at all going forward and looks like a great option for me here. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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