Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 03/23:
Mar 22, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) reacts after a basket against the New York Knicks during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Cha -7.0
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Knicks, I would expect Julius Randle is back after missing the front end of a back-to-back last night due to injury maintenance. I do like the matchup for him in this spot, but he would be more of a GPP guy due to the form he’s shown as of late. RJ Barrett had a big night last night and has been much more aggressive as of late, he’ll lose some usage with Randle back in there but still a guy I’m good getting back to in all formats in a nice matchup. Alec Burks will continue to see 30+ minutes per game but hasn’t been in the best form other than last night where they were missing Randle. He would be more of a tournament guy for me as well considering the price increase. The minutes for Immanuel Quickley have been anywhere in the 20-30 range making it tough to predict his production, but he’s dropped at least 26 DraftKings points in four straight games and a guy I have no issue going back to the well on here. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson will always be in play for tournaments for me due to the upside he provides. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has been volatile for most of the season but has been better as of late and scored 58.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. He’ll look like a fine option in GPPs, but I think we can probably do better in cash games. Terry Rozier continues to look great as well and comes at a discount to Ball if you’re looking for a guy with a safer floor with a similar upside. Miles Bridges is averaging 55 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season and a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Then we get to the trio of Montrezl Harrell, PJ Washington, and Mason Plumlee who will share center minutes. I’m sure one of them will have a nice night in this matchup, but good luck predicting which one it will be, they’re all strictly GPP guys for me. The minutes haven’t really been there for Kelly Oubre as of late, but the price tag looks really nice if you want to take a chance on him in MME.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson, Immanuel Quickley, Evan Fournier, Montrezl Harrell, Mason Plumlee, PJ Washington, Kelly Oubre
I need to give VIP Member “TTG2436” a massive shoutout for his $100k takedown earlier in the season, congrats man! Our NBA Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like
Love
or Dislike
a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the NBA Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -5.5
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young had a big game again in the Garden last night and gets a nice matchup here with the Pistons. He’ll look like a solid spend-up option on this slate. Bogdan Bogdanovic came into yesterday’s game as a game-time decision but ended up dropping nearly 50 fantasy points and is a guy I have no issue going right back to him. Clint Capela has been extremely volatile this season but the minutes should be there in a nice matchup. I do wish the price tag was a bit cheaper on him, however. Kevin Huerter and De’Andre Hunter would be more of secondary options for me here due to the size of the slate but are in play at the very least. From Detroit, Jerami Grant will return here and should go back to his usual 35ish minutes and is a guy I like going back to in a great matchup. Cade Cunningham has been playing all of the minutes he can handle as of late and has been in great form. The matchup is great and he scored 55.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Saddiq Bey has been in solid form as of late but will lose some production with Grant back which will make him more of a tournament option. I was pretty heavy on Marvin Bagley last time out with Grant and Kelly Olynyk both missing the game, but it sounds like they’ll be back which makes both Bagley and Olynyk more of GPP type plays. Then we can round this team out with Isaiah Stewart as a secondary option in all formats.
5-star play: Trae Young, Cade Cunningham
4-star play: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Marvin Bagley, Kelly Olynyk, Isaiah Stewart
Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -6.0
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis will be out for this game and it sounds like De’Aaron Fox is on the closer side of doubtful than questionable, so they’ll be without their two top players which will open up minutes and usage for the rest of this team. I would expect we see guys like Davion Mitchell and Damian Jones enter the starting lineup in their place and secure the minutes on Donte DiVincenzo and Trey Lyles. Mitchell has been playing big minutes with at least 30 in three straight and gets an elite matchup here. The same can be said for Harrison Barnes who has been pretty volatile as of late and would likely be more of a tournament guy for me. Guys like Justin Holiday, Chimezie Metu, and Jeremy Lamb are all fine secondary options to round out the Kings but not priorities like the other guys. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to watch the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays in a revenge game against the Kings. That being said, he hasn’t been in the best form as of late and is more of a GPP guy at his current price tag. I would probably take the discount and go down to Malcolm Brogdon who will get an even bigger boost if Haliburton is forced to miss in a great matchup. The minutes for Buddy Hield have been under 30 in three straight and something he really needs a good amount of to produce, so he’s more of a tournament guy as well. We’ll need news on this frontcourt as well with Isaiah Jackson questionable which will play a role in how Jalen Smith and Oshae Brissett will look here as well.
5-star play: Davion Mitchell, Damian Jones
4-star play: Harrison Barnes, Donte DiVincenzo, Trey Lyles, Justin Holiday, Tyrese Haliburton, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper Value: Damian Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Chimezie Metu
GPP Sleeper: Justin Holiday, Chimezie Metu, Jeremy Lamb, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
Starting with the Jazz, the only guy that they’ll be missing tonight is Bojan Bogdanovic again as he’s missed the past few games. Donovan Mitchell looks like a solid option, but the Celtics have been playing great defense as of late, so maybe more of a secondary guy at this price tag. I do like Rudy Gobert here even off of a tough game against the Nets. The Celtics aren’t a great rebounding team, so I have no problem going right back to him. Jordan Clarkson has been pretty solid as of late with at least 35 FanDuel points in four straight games and is in play for tournaments as always. Mike Conley has been in much better form over the past week or so and a guy I have no issue going right back to here. From Boston, Jayson Tatum has been in great form as of late with at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and scored 55 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Jaylen Brown would be more of a tournament guy due to the volatility he can show at times, but still a guy I’m okay with. Robert Williams will return here after missing their last game and will be needed down low against Gobert and looks like a fine GPP option. The same can be said for Al Horford who was able to take advantage of Williams being out last game. Then guys like Derrick White and Marcus Smart will be more of secondary options than anything.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -3.0
Starting with the Nets, Kyrie Irving will be available as this is a road game and we’ve seen him be pretty unreal when he plays. I don’t know if it’s due to the rest he gets between games or the fresh legs he has, but he’s looked incredible and a guy I have no issue paying through the nose for tonight again. Kevin Durant had a big game last time out but will lose some usage to Kyrie here, he’s still in play in all formats with that said. Andre Drummond should return here as well after missing their last game and is a guy I like as a secondary option due to the per-minute production he’s capable of. The rest of this team would be more of tournament options due to the majority of usage being soaked up by Kyrie and Durant, but guys like Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, and Bruce Brown will fall into this group. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant will be out for this game, and below is how the rest of the team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 17.7% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Jaren Jackson – 30.7% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 24.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 29.4% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
These four will be my favorite options from Memphis with guys like Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams being right behind them. Don’t let the price increase on Jones scare you off of him either, he’ll still look like a top option in the mid-range as he’ll continue to start with Morant out.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Tyus Jones
4-star play: Andre Drummond, Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Bruce Brown, Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams, De’Anthony Melton
Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -7.0
Starting with the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry again here, below is how the rest of the team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 30.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 28.6% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 25.4% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Draymond Green – 12.0% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
Poole and Thompson would be my favorite options here simply due to the matchup. I hate playing guys against this Heat team due to how slow they play on top of the great defense they provide. Green did get his minutes up to 29 last time night, so I would anticipate he either sits on the back end of a back-to-back or gets up over the 30-minute range… keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regarding his status. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler just can’t seem to get to 100% as of late. He comes into this one as questionable as well, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed, but if he’s active I will look his way in tournaments due to the pace increase he’ll see against the Warriors. Bam Adebayo will look solid again here against an undersized Warriors frontcourt. He may get some Draymond Green treatment which isn’t ideal, but still a guy I do like here. Guys like Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry will look like solid secondary options that will get a nice boost if Butler is forced to sit. They’ve both been in pretty good form, particularly Herro.
5-star play: Jordan Poole
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr., Kevon Looney, Tyler Herro
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.5
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker will continue to look like a great option here as Chris Paul will sit this one out. Booker is averaging 48.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wolves this season and a guy I like in all formats at this price tag in a great matchup. I love the spot for Deandre Ayton as well, the Wolves will continue to be a frontcourt that I attack with opposing big men. Cameron Payne is priced right where I think he should be but still has a little meat on the bone if you want to go here in GPPs. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder look like solid filler pieces if you happened to land on them. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns comes into this one as questionable and news we’ll need on this slate, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him and how he impacts the production for the rest of this team. Assuming he plays… he’ll look like a good option again here as he comes into this one in great form. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are both solid secondary options in this game and will be guys that see a nice boost if Towns is forced to miss. Jarred Vanderbilt will be more of a tournament guy due to the minutes’ volatility he’s seen as of late. Lastly, Patrick Beverley continues to outproduce his price tag and is a guy I like in all formats again here.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: Cameron Payne, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Jarred Vanderbilt
Use the 2021-22 NBA DFS Sim Model and build stronger lineups for cash games and/or large-field tournaments! Run the slate 1000 times and see who comes out on top most often, who creates value, and who is most likely to post that gpp-winning outlier…
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into this one as questionable but did play last time out, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays here. The matchup is great and he has a 34.5% usage rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute with Josh Giddey and Lu Dort off of the court this season. Isaiah Roby has re-entered the starting lineup as of late and had a rough game last time out, that said, I think you can go back to him here assuming he continues to start in a great matchup. Aleksej Pokusevski has gotten back into the starting lineup as well and will be a guy I continue to target as long as he’s getting the minutes security that comes with being a starter. Then guys like Darius Bazley and Tre Mann will be fine tournament options as well to round out this team. From the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable for this one but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays. He dropped 59 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is a guy I like even at his elevated price tag. I want to like Cole Anthony here, but he just can’t seem to get over the 30-minute mark consistently, so he’ll be more of a tournament guy, however, that could change with Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz out here. Franz Wagner and Mo Bamba both look like solid options in this price range, I would lean Wagner in cash and Bamba in GPP however. Then guys like Chuma Okeke and RJ Hampton are fine MME pieces.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Isaiah Roby, Aleksej Pokusevski, Darius Bazley, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Roby, Tre Mann, Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, RJ Hampton
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -9.5
Starting with the Rockets, Christian Wood has been pretty volatile as of late but we seen the ceiling he’s capable of putting up a few times as of late with at least 59 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. He’s in play for tournaments at the very least in a great matchup with the Mavs. Kevin Porter Jr. has been volatile this season as well and will be more of a tournament guy if you want to get exposure as well. We can round them out with Jalen Green and Jae’Sean Tate as MME guys, but I don’t think you’ll need them on a slate this size. From the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic here, and below is how the rest of the team operates with him off of the court this season (Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway as well):
- Jalen Brunson – 30.4% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 33.9% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 17.5% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Reggie Bullock – 16.4% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
I’ll be looking at Brunson and Dinwiddie mainly here, but the matchup is good enough to make a case for some of these other guys. That said, due to the size of the slate, Dinwiddie and Brunson will be the main priorities for me and guys I’ll like in all formats. I do like the matchup for Dwight Powell as well, he’s been getting more consistent run as of late and is averaging 31.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Rockets this season.
5-star play: Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie
4-star play: Christian Wood, Dwight Powell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -7.5
Starting with the Sixers, it’s really a two-man team for me with Joel Embiid and James Harden right now and all the usage they’re demanding. Joel Embiid is in great form and should be able to do whatever he wants against this Lakers frontcourt. James Harden hasn’t really lived up to his price tag since that Sixers debut and would be more of a GPP guy for me at this price. That said, it’s a nice pace-up spot for the Sixers and he’s averaging 74.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against them this season… but needs to be taken with a grain of salt as those games were with the Nets earlier this season. With those two eating up most of the usage it doesn’t leave a whole lot out there for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris and will probably be guys I’m underweight on due to the size of the slate. From the Lakers, LeBron James has been in great form with at least 61 DraftKings points in three straight games and a guy that I have no issue going right back to the well with as one of the best spend-up options on the slate. Russell Westbrook has been fairly decent over his last three games with at least 46 DraftKings points in each game and has a 27.8% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Davis off of the court this season. Malik Monk has shown some nice consistency as of late and looks like a solid secondary option. Then we can round this team out with Carmelo Anthony and Talen Horton-Tucker who will be MME options again here.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, LeBron James
4-star play: James Harden, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: Wenyen Gabriel
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Wenyen Gabriel, Malik Monk, Carmelo Anthony, Talen Horton-Tucker
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Sas -8.5
Starting with the Spurs, Dejounte Murray has been held under 40 fantasy points in back-to-back games but has been in great form as of late and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in a great matchup against this Blazers defense. Keldon Johnson has been in good form as of late and a guy I like in GPPs due to the upside he can provide. Jakob Poeltl should be able to do whatever he wants down low against Eubanks and company. Then we can round the team out with Devin Vassell as a solid filler piece in all formats. From the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, and Anfernee Simons so the starting lineup will look rough yet again. Trendon Watford should continue to play nice minutes and has produced well as of late. The matchup sets up well and will be a guy I am interested in with at least 30 minutes in each of his last five games. Brandon Williams will continue to start at the point for the Blazers as well, but has gained some competition in the backcourt with Kris Dunn in down and playing around 25 minutes per game. Dunn has shown some great per-minute production in his four games with the Blazers and a guy I don’t mind getting to if we don’t get a ton of value on this slate. I love the spot for Williams and Dunn against this Spurs defense who I’ll continue to target point guards against. Lastly, Drew Eubanks is the very definition of minutes are king for NBA DFS. I don’t think he’s a good basketball player, but if he’s going to continue to see around 30 minutes in a solid enough matchup.
5-star play: Dejounte Murray
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Trendon Watford, Brandon Williams, Justise Winslow, Kris Dunn, Drew Eubanks
Deeper Value: Kris Dunn
GPP Sleeper: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell
NBA Lock of the Day: Spencer Dinwiddie (DK – $6.4k; FD – $6.6k)
The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic here meaning there will be a ton of usage and minutes to go around. Spencer Dinwiddie has been great since joining the Mavs and has a 33.9% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute with Doncic off of the court. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
