Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 03/14:
Mar 12, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard D’Angelo Russell (0) reacts from the court during the fourth quarter of the game against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 211.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.0
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Clippers, Reggie Jackson will continue to play massive minutes. He’s played 40 minutes in three straight and is really the catalyst of this offense right now with Paul George and Norman Powell out. I can’t say I love the price tag on him, but he’s in play for tournaments at the very least. Marcus Morris is the other scoring option next to Jackson and has been volatile as of late as well. I do think he’s starting to find some consistency and makes sense at this price tag. Ivica Zubac has been in great form as of late and they’ll need his size against this Cavs frontcourt, I can’t say I love the matchup, but the minutes should be there. Then guys like Terance Mann, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Nicolas Batum are all tournament options that I don’t know that we’ll need on this slate. From the Cavaliers, Jarrett Allen will continue to be out while Lauri Markkanen and Caris LeVert come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding them. Darius Garland has a 34.9% usage rate and 1.3 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks but will likely see this come down if LeVert is in there to snag some of that usage. I love the form Evan Mobley has been in as well, the matchup isn’t anything to shy away from either, he looks like a great option. I’ll likely only have interest in Kevin Love if Markkanen ends up sitting due to the price tag. Markkanen being out would secure his minutes and has been a great per minute guy on the season. Cedi Osman would be more interesting in this scenario as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, Terance Mann, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nicolas Batum, Kevin Love, Cedi Osman
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Portland Trailblazers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -12.0
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and Justise Winslow for this one. Josh Hart stepped up in a big way last time out against the Wizards going for 70+ fantasy points. That being said, the price tag is skyrocketed to a point where I don’t think I can feel all that comfortable getting to him in anything outside of tournaments. I do like the price tag more on FanDuel where he’s over $2k cheaper than he is on DraftKings. Trendon Watford should continue to play nice minutes and has produced well as of late. The matchup sets up well and will be a guy I am interested in. Brandon Williams will continue to start at the point for the Blazers as well, he’s shown he can be productive but really needs the minutes to be there, which they should be in a nice matchup. Lastly, Drew Eubanks saw 39 minutes last time out which is a season-high. If he’s going to continue to see around 30 minutes it will be hard to ignore him. From the Hawks, it sounds like John Collins will be a game-time decision, so watch the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays for the sake of this article. The price tag for Collins looks phenomenal at just $5.5k on DraftKings and $6.2k on FanDuel, we’re used to seeing him in the mid-$7k range and if he’s passed physically to play, I would assume he’s a full go unless we hear otherwise. Clint Capela scored 38.75 DraftKings points in this matchup this season and gets a great matchup down low against Eubanks. That said, Collins being back would hurt his minute security making him more of a tournament guy for me. Trae Young is a guy that we’ll have to take a long hard look at here, he dropped 85 DraftKings points on the Blazers earlier this season and has been in great form as of late… he’ll look like a great option in all formats. Then the trio of Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari will all be tournament guys who will lose shine if Collins is available.
5-star play: Josh Hart (FanDuel), Trae Young
4-star play: Trendon Watford, Brandon Williams, Drew Eubanks, Clint Capela, John Collins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart (DraftKings), Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon is the only one popping on the injury report for them as questionable that we’ll have to watch out for. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays again, but nothing more than a secondary GPP play for me in this matchup. Nikola Jokic is generally the only guy that I really ever get to on the Nuggets with consistency and he gets a tough matchup with Embiid down low in this one. He did drop 57.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier in the season and will continue to look like a good option if you can find the money to get up to him. Will Barton and Monte Morris will look like fine secondary options, but I’m not sure that we will need them on this slate. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid is in great form with at least 73 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and will be a top raw option on this slate as he’ll duke it out with Jokic down low. James Harden hasn’t really lived up to his price tag since that Sixers debut and would be more of a GPP guy for me at this price. With those two eating up most of the usage it doesn’t leave a whole lot out there for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris but will be guys that I don’t mind as filler options if you’re MME’ing and land on them.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Will Barton, Monte Morris, James Harden
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris
Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Cha -7.5
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has been volatile for most of the season but has at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and gets a great matchup with the Thunder in this one. He’ll look like a fine option in GPPs, but I think we can probably do better in cash games. Terry Rozier continues to look great as well and comes at a discount to Ball if you’re looking for a guy with a safer floor with a similar upside. Miles Bridges dropped a 50 burger on the Pelicans last time out and a guy that has been consistent all season long. Then we get to the trio of Montrezl Harrell, PJ Washington, and Mason Plumlee who will share center minutes. I’m sure one of them will have a nice night in this matchup, but good luck predicting which one it will be. They’re all strictly GPP guys for me. The minutes haven’t really been there for Kelly Oubre as of late, but the price tag looks really nice if you want to take a chance on him in tournaments. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough go of it last time out but has been in elite form. He has a 35.4% usage rate and 1.59 fantasy points per minute with Josh Giddey and Lu Dort off of the court over the past month. The Hornets’ defense isn’t one that scares me either, he’s an elite play on this slate. Isaiah Roby should continue to start at the five for the Thunder and has been in pretty solid form with at least 34 minutes in three of his last four. I’ll be off of Aleksej Pokusevski until he gets himself back into the starting lineup, it’s just hard to trust his minutes unless he’s in that starting five. Then guys like Darius Bazley and Tre Mann will be fine tournament options as well.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, Isaiah Roby
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Montrezl Harrell, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre, Darius Bazley, Tree Mann
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Wolves, Jarred Vanderbilt will miss this game while Patrick Beverley comes in as questionable, but I would assume he returns in this one. Karl-Anthony Towns had a down game last time out but otherwise has been in good form and had a nice game against the Spurs earlier this season. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards will both be guys I’ll have a good amount of interest in here. Guards against the Spurs has been a real problem and one that has produced a lot of DFS gold this season. Jaden McDaniels and Malik Beasley should help fill in the minutes for Vanderbilt and Beverley should he miss… McDaniels will look solid, but I would want Beverley out in order to get to any Beasley. From the Spurs, they should be back to full health after resting a number of guys last time out. Dejounte Murray has at least 52 DraftKings points in five straight games and is a guy that looks like an elite option against a bad defense here. I like targeting big men against the Wolves just as much as I like targeting guards against the Spurs which makes Jakob Poeltl a great option at this price tag. Keldon Johnson will continue to be more of a GPP option, but we know the upside is there for him somewhere. Lastly, Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker will be secondary GPP options as they should lose some minutes with these guys back in the rotation.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl
4-star play: Jaden McDaniels, Patrick Beverley, Keldon Johnson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Beasley, Devin Vassell, Lonnie Walker
Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: GSW -12.5
Starting with the Wizards, I’ll be lower on Kyle Kuzma in this one with Kristaps Porzingis active, especially at his current price tag, he should lose production and usage with him out there. I don’t mind the price tag on Kristaps if you want to go there in tournaments, I just wish he was getting more minutes, but the upside is elite against a smaller Warriors team. I’m not a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope guy, but he has at least 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five if you want to ride out the heater with him. The rest of this team is just kind of meh for me, I guess you can make a case for Corey Kispert in tournaments, but for the most part, I think we’ll find better options on this slate. From the Warriors, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole were strokin’ on Saturday night against the Bucks, hell, even Clarence Carter was impressed. I wouldn’t expect them to shoot a combined 13-24 from three-point range again in this one and I can’t say I love the price increase on either of them which will make them tournament guys because they do have the capability to do it again (obviously). Steph Curry had a down game last time out but I’m willing to overlook it due to how hot the rest of his team was. He’s been volatile this season but still a solid spend-up GPP option with his ability to shoot the lights out. Draymond Green is expected to return in this one, but he’ll likely be on a minutes limit, so we can somewhat ignore him until he’s back to being a full go. Green being back will hurt the minutes for Jonathan Kuminga and Otto Porter Jr., maybe even Kevon Looney if they go small, but nothing that I would be overly concerned about in this one due to the minutes limit.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, Corey Kispert, Kevon Looney, Jonathan Kuminga, Otto Porter Jr., Jordan Poole
Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -4.5
Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine will come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s OUT. With LaVine and Lonzo Ball off of the court this season, below is how the rest of this team operates:
- DeMar DeRozan – 38.8% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
- Ayo Dosunmu – 14.9% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Coby White – 22.1% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 28.7% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Alex Caruso –17.7% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
Alex Caruso returned last time out to play 29 minutes which was more than I was expecting. He’ll look like a great option here, as well as the rest of the team in an elite matchup with the Kings. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox seems to have found his footing with at least 56 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and a guy that looks great again here. Domantas Sabonis is averaging 49.8 DraftKings points in four games against the Bulls this season and another guy that looks like a solid option in all formats. Harrison Barnes is never really a guy that I force in, but if you happened to land on him here, I’ll have no issue with him as a filler piece. The minutes for Donte DiVincenzo have been all over the place as of late making him more of a risky tournament option. Then the rest of this frontcourt is a bit of a mess, I would consider Trey Lyles and Richaun Holmes risky GPP options as well.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Donte DiVincenzo, Trey Lyles, Richaun Holmes
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -1.5
Starting with the Bucks, Brook Lopez and George Hill are expected to return here but have been out for a while, so I would anticipate both of them to be on a minutes limit, and I’m not even sure that Lopez starts… but something to note. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 51.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, it’s a fast-paced game environment but the matchup can be tougher with Gobert down low, that said, he’s a great play in all formats. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton will both look like secondary options for all formats again as well, they’ve been fairly consistent as of late. Bobby Portis will eventually lose minutes to Lopez if he comes back fully healthy, but I wouldn’t expect he loses much here and looks like a good option again even in a tougher matchup. Then we can round this team out with Grayson Allen as a tournament option and a form of value. From the Jazz, Rudy Gobert missed their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but they’ll need his size in this one. I do like the spot for Donovan Mitchell as well, the Bucks give up big games to his type of play and has a nice price tag. Jordan Clarkson has been in good form as of late but I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 7-13 from three-point range again and the price tag has come up on him. Bojan Bogdanovic has at least 31 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks like a solid filler piece here as well. Then we can round this team out with Mike Conley as a secondary option, he bounced back nicely last time out and will help navigate this Bucks defense tonight.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: Grayson Allen
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet just can’t seem to get healthy and comes into this one as questionable again. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. If he’s active I would think he’s a full go and will play his normal 35+ minutes in a nice matchup. Pascal Siakam has at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is a guy I have no issue going with here. The price tag on Scottie Barnes has come way up but for good reason, he’s been in great form. He’s probably more of a secondary option for me strictly due to the price tag. Gary Trent Jr. is a bit too scoring dependent for me to love in cash games but is a fine tournament option if you get there. Lastly, Chris Boucher played 30 minutes last time out and is a fine GPP option, but on a bigger slate, I’m not sure how much I’ll land on him at this price tag. From the Lakers, LeBron James has at least 71 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has a 33.5% usage rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute with Anthony Davis off of the court this season. Russell Westbrook has been extremely volatile and will be a tournament-only guy for me but has a 28.5% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute with Davis off of the court this season. Malik Monk has shown some nice consistency as of late and looks like a solid secondary option. Then we can round this team out with Carmelo Anthony and Talen Horton-Tucker who will be MME options again here.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, LeBron James
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent, Chris Boucher, Carmelo Anthony, Talen Horton-Tucker
NBA Lock of the Day: D’Angelo Russell (DK – $7.8k; FD – $7.2k)
I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb here with Russell, but I’m going to continue to attack this Spurs team with opposing guards as they keep getting torn apart by them. Russell leads this backcourt in usage over the past month and think he can have a ceiling game here. He scored 37.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, I’m going to call a 50 burger for him here! At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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