Everyone needs an Evan
So I have this friend, well he is actually my best friend and I would like to give you an example of why, as it relates to getting better at DFS. When I began playing, I was all about some cheap and low owned quarterbacks (even if it wasn’t a great play) and other picks.
Keeping it real
So one day, my friend Evan is like “dude, you are just trying to be cute for the heck of it and it’s a really stupid rationale.” At the time, I lacked humility and I became really upset with him, but he didn’t care because he knew he was trying to help. Well, that weekend I played Drew Lock, he was a terrible play, and I won our friend’s Sunday Tournament. Do y’all know this joker calls me again?! This time he is like, “man, I just don’t want you to think bad plays like that are going to win consistently. I am telling you that it will make you lose more than you win.” So, I brushed it off and counted my 100$ bonus, well guess what?? I lost the 100 and the money I had in my bankroll.
Evolving the practice
As I said, I lacked humility, and I lacked money to play for the rest of the 2021 season ha! Well, I decided after that to join the Army as I always loved listening to geek and guess what?? I met a guy named Choppo (editor) and he told me the exact same thing Evan did. Okay, Evan was right, but let’s get to why you are really here SEMI-CHALK is a great strategy that will provide you with a rationale for your approach to tournaments. I have found that I specifically have found success using this picks strategy as a SE and 3max, and you will see why as I unpack it for you. So let’s get started:
Here is example of the Domination Station, provided to us by DFSARMY!
- Do you like the taste of chalk?? Well it really depends on the flavor, ya know? Well the “flavor” for me is a look at the projected ownership then a quick look the research station, simulation model and cheat sheets provided by professionals. I do this as I want to know if that “flavor” of chalk is worth a dip or not. For example, we are playing hockey last night (2/7/2022) and we see that Auston Mathews 9,500$ is projected at 46% ownership. Now, taking a deeper look at him, we look at the research station and it shows he has 20 shots on goal and 4 goals over the last 5 games. He is playing well! I like that flavor of chalk, so I am going to own him in my SE. At 6o% owned, which is what he was, he is not going to hurt you or help you. Just grab him and move on to the “semi-chalk”
- You ate the good chalk, now time to check out this semi-chalk. At a glance, Mathews is projected 46% ownership and is the highest projected. Take that number and divide it by 2 to get in my semi-chalk range. For example, 47%/2= is 23%. Now that I have that number, I will fluctuate 7% above and 7% below that 23% to keep me in a nice range of players who are owned but not overly owned. Keeping on the same slate, Nick Paul was projected 23% ownership, which will fall into the semi chalk picks. I played him, he ended up 13% and I had a nice edge on the field with that play. I like the 7% rule as it keeps me from running down to the bottom of ownership and falling back into my Drew Locke picks, and also keeps me from eating all the chalk.
- Ratio it out: Here is what I have found beneficial, but please, modify it how you like then share it with me!
- I break a lineup from 100% into 3 ratios that make up the 100%= 10% GPP Plays (should have a rationale behind it), 60% Semi-Chalk, 20% Good Chalk.
- Now let’s take a look at an example:
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- Below there are 9 players total and they are broken up into 1 gpp play, 5 semi-chalk, and 2 chalk. This ratio keeps me with the field when the chalk hits, but also gives me an edge when the field starts to narrow down. Also, you will see if I finished in 40th, but look at J. Fast at 2%, if he does a little more I am in the top 10 now! Paul didn’t hit last night, but this will paint a proper picture of what I am trying to explain with attacking the SE and 3Max contests.
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You need tools for great picks!
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- First, I am just going to state it: If you are not using projections, you are leaving money on the table as Projections are what guides your build, therefore, if you have not already done so, Sign up and become a soldier in the DFSARMY. This will give you all the tools and picks you need in order to practice semi-chalk. Joining DFSARMY will provide you with direct contact to all of the professional players and coaches on the site. However, if you are already using projections and a website, give semi-chalk a shot and see where it takes you.
Back to Evan
As stated earlier, I really hate how Evan calls me out from time to time, but you need that! You need at least 1 friend like Evan, because he or she will will always have your back! If you have someone like that (mom, wife, friend, etc.) I suggest you give them some love today and thank them for keeping your annoying/stubborn self on the right track!
Did I Spark an Idea in Life or DFS??
Come talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and love being able to connect with people. My goal for this is to make you better DFS picks while making your life better, too. Because, let’s face it, a million dollars is no good if you are a lonely old jerk.
Twitter: @geno_casas
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