Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Feb 4, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (2) looks up at a replay during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
PG LaMelo Ball $8800
CHA vs CHI
The NBA trade season is in full swing. Not only is it a fun time to be an NBA fan, but also it is a great time to play DFS. There are going to be a lot of value plays these next few days. On Tuesday, the Pacers and Blazers were very short-handed due to the trades they had completed earlier in the day. With numerous value plays, we will be able to pay for anyone we want. Let us start off with LaMelo Ball. Ball did not close for two games which resulted in 25 and 24.5DKpt games. Last game, he played 44mins in a regulation game. Somehow, he only posted 38.5DKpts. Gordon Hayward got hurt early in that one which forced every Hornet into a lot of mins. With Hayward, Cody Martin, and Jalen McDaniels all still out, these Hornets will play massive mins once again.
Ball leads the team in usage with the current roster available at 27.6% averaging 1.19FPM. Do not expect 44mins from him today but you can expect him to be a lot more productive. He shot 5/19 and had 7 turnovers last time out. The Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, and Ayo Donsumu. Chicago’s defense takes a massive hit with these injuries. The Bulls allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PGs in the last 7 games. Since LaMelo has underperformed recently, he is not going to be high-owned today. He has triple-double upside in a very attractive game environment for this 6 game slate with a 234 total. His teammates Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are going to be chalky because of their cheaper price tags. You can play more than one of them but many will shy away from LaMelo due to recency bias.
PG/SG Davion Mitchell $5600
SAC vs MIN
De’Aaron Fox returned from his absence on Tuesday night. However, the Kings traded Tyrese Haliburton to the Pacers so Mitchell still will have a similar role tonight. The newcomers likely will need some time before they can suit up for the Kings. The Wolves and Kings played Tuesday night and they will be matched up again tonight. Mitchell played 30mins and shot 3/11 with 5 turnovers recording only 17DKpts. I do not think he is underpriced but that also will lead to single-digit ownership. He should get his minutes staggered again with Fox. This allows him to contribute in the assists category more than he usually does. The Wolves allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing SGs. Minnesota should have Patrick Beverley guarding Fox.
In this price range at guard, Coby White and Jordan Poole should be the chalk plays. Dosunmu and Klay Thompson are out today. At a fraction of the ownership of those two, Mitchell makes for a solid pivot. If White starts, he has to share usage with LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic. Poole is playing alongside Stephen Curry in a tough matchup against Utah. Mitchell should be in one of the higher totals today. You can simply get out of this range for guard and avoid all 3. They are all inconsistent with the peripherals. However, given the current Kings situation, Mitchell should have more success accumulating stats today than usual.
PF/C Chris Boucher $4800
TOR @ OKC
I think PJ Washington is going to pick up 20%+ ownership. If he does not, he would be in this article. With all the injuries on Charlotte, he has a path to playing huge minutes. Kelly Oubre Jr. came off the bench last game and still picked up significant ownership. Washington probably gets viewed similarly today. Now before I get into Boucher, this is a very risky play. The Raptors are healthy today. His minutes upside is likely capped at 25 or so. He will not even reach that unless a starter gets into foul trouble. Us DFS players love Boucher because of the upside he possesses. He has an 18.3% usage rate but averages 1.02FPM. Only Siakam and VanVleet are more productive on the team than him. Nick Nurse has mentioned lowering the minutes for the starters for a while now. He has not really done it but maybe this is it considering they are playing the Thunder.
Josh Giddey is going to be limited to 30mins. SGA is out. There is blowout risk in this one. Even though Boucher does not get all the blowout run, he likely would pick up additional minutes if the game does end up lopsided. Every single minute is important for Boucher. The Thunder allow the 2nd-most blocks to opposing PF/Cs. They should struggle to score which is going to lead to more rebounds. Boucher can take advantage of this soft matchup. He will be single-digit owned. If no immediate fantasy impactful trades happen tomorrow, Boucher is going to be very much in play. Some of the Blazers’ value has been priced up to the mid-4ks which leaves Boucher all by himself.
SF/PF Otto Porter Jr. $4700
GSW @ UTA
Andre Iguodala returned to only leave the game early hurt again. Kevon Looney is questionable. The Warriors play in the later games. If we do not know about Looney’s status before lock, Porter will be even lower-owned. Rudy Gobert will be out again tonight. The Jazz have closed without Hassan Whiteside or Udoka Azubuike. This certainly is a matchup where both teams can go small. Draymond Green remains out. Porter should start tonight and offers sneaky upside. Porter has a 15.7% usage rate but averages 1.06FPM. That is only behind Curry and Poole when taking Thompson, Green, and Bjelica off the floor. He is still playable if Looney is in. If he is out, Porter is going to be crashing the boards hard with all the bigs that are missing.
Porter has had some high assist games this season. He could be used to facilitate more again tonight because Green is still out. With Thompson resting, Curry will have to score more instead of playmaking. He already contributes well across the stat sheet. Tonight, he is going to be involved a lot more. Porter only played 15mins last game but that had a lot to do with how well Jonathan Kuminga was playing. Rookies are inconsistent so that likely will not happen tonight and they are playing a much tougher opponent. In addition, Thompson and Looney played last game. Justise Winslow is a $4400 PF. He should soak up a lot of the ownership.
Just missed the cut: Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt, PJ Washington, Troy Brown Jr.
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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