Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Jan 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23) reacts after making a three-point basket during the second half against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
PG Fred VanVleet $8800
TOR vs CHI
Another slate with the Raptors means big minutes for the starters in this one. There should be plenty of value for this slate. There actually are not many studs to pay up for. This makes the 8k+ priced players more viable. Nick Nurse has been running a tight rotation for a while now. That is reflected in the pricing. He has said that he wants to give his guys some rest. However, that has yet to be seen. These Raptors starters are playing sometimes over 40mins a game in regulation. They pretty much ran a 7-man rotation last game. VanVleet has not shot the ball well recently but has put up 40+DKpts 6 games in a row. He offers solid peripherals which would result in a ceiling game if he has a good shooting game.
The Raptors have faced a lot of tough opponents in the last month. Chicago is not an easy matchup but they offer less resistance to the PG position than a team like Miami. The Bulls are getting healthier but will still be without some of their top perimeter defenders in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. To account for this, in the last 15 games, the Bulls are allowing the 5th-most DKpts to opposing PGs. This matchup is better than it appears as there is a red 5th for his OPRK. Again, please ignore that. FVV has a 24.5% usage rate averaging 1.12FPM. He deserves to be priced in this range but the public seems to think he is overpriced because he was in the 7Ks earlier. This will keep him low-owned unless Trae Young and Dejounte Murray both sit out today.
PF Keldon Johnson $5700
SAS vs MIA
Dejounte Murray is questionable for this game. Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale both are out. Drew Eubanks should draw the start at center. Maybe Thaddeus Young gets dusted off. The Spurs played the final 8:48 against the Suns without a true center. All of this benefits Johnson because there will be a lot of rebounds opened up. The Heat are the best team at stopping opposing PGs. This is going to make life difficult for Murray if he plays. If he misses, Derrick White will take on more ball-handling duties but would be put in the same tough spot. Miami is a solid defensive team but they have a number of players questionable today. Johnson could end up benefitting both on the glass and offensively.
The Spurs are bottom third in rebounding rate. If Murray misses today, someone is going to have to rebound. They will do it collectively but Johnson could put up a double-digit night on the boards. Since Bam Adebayo is on the other side, I would guess Gregg Popovich deploys a center. The available options today are not the same type of elite rebounder that Poeltl is. Since the Heat are tough against PGs, Johnson could be tasked to do more offensively. If Murray is out, Johnson is going to absolutely do more with the ball. PF is usually a weak position to fill. He has been consistent lately and if Muray is out, he will not be low-owned.
C Richaun Holmes $5000
SAC @ GSW
Anytime a slate does not have Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, rostering anyone not named those two is a lot more viable. The Kings are on a back-to-back but it is a short trip. Holmes did not close the game on Wednesday against Brooklyn because the Kings’ 2nd unit went on quite a run. Sacramento will roll with the hot hand so Holmes’ mins are inconsistent. Since Holmes only played 21mins on Wednesday, he should be relatively fresh today. If Marvin Bagley III misses again, this helps Holmes since Bagley cannot possibly close the game at center. Out of the 21mins Holmes played against the Nets, he played 16 of those in the 1st half. He has the upside to play 30mins if he is playing well.
These past few years, the Warriors have been tough against opposing centers. Given their current situation, center is actually their weak spot. With Draymond Green out, Kevon Looney is the only true big man. James Wiseman still seems far from returning. Nemanja Bjelica is out again today. The Warriors will have to run a forward at the center spot. Holmes should be about to rebound well and take advantage of this small Golden State roster. The problem is that his teammates who are in the same matchup could take more advantage than he does and outplay him. Damian Jones played 27mins and closed on Wednesday. Chimezie Metu is capable of playing center. Since these concerns will lower Holmes’ ownership, he is a strong GPP play today. He has not flashed his upside in a while, but we have seen him do it before.
SG Luke Kennard $4700
LAC vs LAL
Speaking of the hot hand, the Clippers also will ride the unit that plays the best. Kennard shot 1/7 last game which resulted in only 16mins played. Still, without Kawhi Leonard and Paul Geroge, Kennard is going to be an important piece to this Clipper team every night. He is a sharpshooter playing in a pace-up spot. The Clippers are the 8th-fastest team while the Lakers play at the 3rd-fastest pace. The Lakers are on a back-to-back so some players might be out due to rest. Kennard put up 48.5, 39, and 35DKpt in the last 5 games. That 6.25DKpt game is ugly but that will turn people away. The Lakers have AD back but have not been good defensively this season as a team.
Besides the stars, the Clippers should be healthy today. At $4700, that is not a cheap price for Kennard. He should be single-digit owned. There is near 10x upside in this matchup for Kennard. The Lakers allow the 6th-most DKpts to opposing SGs. He is a similar play to Holmes in that his playing time is dictated by his performance. The Clippers used to close with Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris every game. Morris did not close the last game. Ivica Zubac was out for that one against the Pacers who do not have any bigs at the moment. It seemed like the perfect spot for Morris to close at center but that did not happen. Since nothing is set in stone, Kennard could definitely play 30+ mins and have one of those 35+DKpt performances today.
Just missed the cut: John Collins, Derrick White, Clint Capela, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Stewart, Eric Bledsoe, Chimezie Metu, Terance Mann, Thaddeus Young
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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