Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Feb 26, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Jerami Grant (9) drives to the basket against Boston Celtics center Robert Williams III (44) during the second quarter at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
C Christian Wood $8300
HOU vs LAC
This slate features the top center option in Nikola Jokic. Dwight Howard is minimum price after his big performance on Friday against the Clippers. These two, especially Howard, will fill the center spots in the majority of lineups today. One center that should be single-digit owned is Christain Wood. It has been a while since he put up a huge game. Wood has some sizeable home/road splits. He averages over 3 more DKpts and shoots a lot better when the Rockets play at home. Kevin Porter Jr. is questionable. I will play Wood regardless of KPJ’s status. Of course, I will roster more Wood if KPJ ends up out.
The Clippers are quietly becoming a target for opposing centers. They give up the 7th-most DKpts to the position including the 4th-most pts and 5th-most 3s. The last time these two teams played, it ended up being a blowout. However, the Rockets were missing some key players for that one. The Rockets do play better at home and the Clippers hold a losing record on the road. LA is favored by 6.5 with a 228.5 total. I would not worry too much about blowout risk if you roster Wood. If he is playing well, the game likely is close. If the Clippers win big, Wood likely put up a subpar performance and was not going to deliver the performance you needed anyway. Recency bias, matchup, and ownership all make Wood an intriguing GPP play today.
SF/PF Miles Bridges $7900
CHA vs DET
Anytime the Hornets play, we target that whole game. While it is usually the opponent that we like to roster, Charlotte does run a short rotation which makes their pieces favorable to roster. There have been several games this season in which Bridges has played over 40mins in regulation. Last game, he only played 31 because of blowout. Gordon Hayward remains out. Looking at the price points for these Hornets, Bridges stands out more than LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. Forward generally is a weaker position to fill. The Pistons are allowing the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing SFs. Bridges does not stand out at this near-8k price tag. However, that is what will keep his ownership low.
Bridges is becoming less shot-dependent as he has put up some high assist totals. His minutes are getting staggered with Ball. His rebounding should be there as it has been even with the Hornets playing Monztrezl Harrell and Mason Plumlee together. As we near the end of the regular season, most slates will provide a lot of value. Howard is already one. This allows us to spend up for raw points a lot easier. Bridges might not look the most appealing but he is the next available forward after LeBron James. This is only a 5 game slate. Bridges is locked into a lot of minutes in a nice game environment with a 227 total.
PF Jerami Grant $6000
DET @ CHA
Speaking of the game environment, we probably want some Detroit exposure today. Cade Cunningham should be the highest-rostered Piston. Grant has played pretty poorly since he returned from his injury. He really has not delivered with the peripherals which has made him scoring-dependent. Only a couple of months ago, Grant was putting up 40, 50+DKpt games. Cunningham is settling in and taking a lot of the usage that belonged to Grant. Grant was priced above 7k when Cunningham was out and during last season. His price has been adjusted for the team’s current situation. This is a fantastic matchup for the forward to turn things around. Charlotte allows the 7th-most DKpts to opposing PFs.
If the Hornets use their two-center lineup against the Pistons, Grant should be able to take advantage. He is much faster than Harrell and Plumlee. Both of these bigs are not too comfortable when stepping outside of the paint. With one of the top matchups you can get, there could be some more peripherals available today. Grant will not continue to shoot under 30%. He has had some poor matchups against Jared Vanderbilt, Herbert Jones, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley, and the Celtics. After having to deal with those talented defenders, PJ Washington and the rest of this Charlotte roster is going to feel a lot easier for Grant.
PG/SG Malik Monk $5200
LAL vs NOP
The guard spot is not stacked today. Maybe some standout plays pop up before lock but this is going to put players like Monk in play. He probably should be cheaper than this based on his recent performances and bench role. Now if he was $4500 or less, Monk would be chalk. This is the late-night hammer with a 225.5 total and 1.5 spread in favor of the Lakers. The Pelicans play somewhat slow but with the addition of CJ McCollum, it is possible they pick things up as this team finds its rhythm. Defense is not McCollum’s strong suit. This team might struggle on the perimeter. New Orleans is around league average when it comes to defending opposing SGs. With McCollum on the team, this could drop though. The perimeter is where Monk does his damage.
Anthony Davis will be out for a while. There have been moments where Monk has been the 2nd-best Laker. He came off the bench last game but Frank Vogel switches his lineups quite a bit. Nobody is a lock to close the game other than LeBron James. If Monk is playing well, he is going to close. That means he will play 30+ mins and is likely putting up a 30+DKpt game. Herbert Jones should guard LeBron. Brandon Ingram has the tools to be a good defender but has been subpar this season. The Pelicans should continue to use the 2 big lineup of Jaxson Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas. This just seems like a spot where the Lakers can take advantage from the outside.
Just missed the cut: Brandon Ingram, Aaron Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate (if KPJ out), Mason Plumlee, Ivica Zubac, Eric Gordon, Kevon Looney, Devonte’ Graham, Marvin Bagley III?, Kelly Olynyk
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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