Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Feb 6, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony (50) drives to the basket as Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) defends during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
PF/C Domantas Sabonis $9700
SAC @ BKN
We got a 9 game slate for this Monday. The players seem to be efficiently priced. There have been one or two slates recently where value was much scarce. We could see this again as the trade deadline has passed. I would prefer to spend up for Nikola Jokic because the center position looks weak today. If that is not an option, Julius Randle looks solid at $9600 now with only PF eligibility. That makes Sabonis a pivot play. Randle will be playing without RJ Barrett while Sabonis is sharing the ball with De’Aaron Fox. He has played 33 and 34mins in his first 2 games as a King. It is possible we see Sabonis play a few extra mins as he becomes more familiar with the team. In these 2 games, Sabonis posted a 30% and a 16% usage game. Expect a number around 23% as he was at 22.2% with the Pacers.
The Nets are fresh off their blockbuster deal. They should have Seth Curry and Andre Drummond available today although it is unclear if both of them would start. Sabonis should have his way regardless of the lineup Steve Nash rolls out. Brooklyn is middle of the pack in defending centers. Sabonis has recorded about the same potential assists as Fox in the past 2 games. He is properly priced for this spot. Since this is the case for just about every player on the slate, he is in play on this 9 gamer. Randle is going to absorb all the attention. Most likely a lineup with Randle will not have Sabonis. This is a huge edge in the case that Sabonis can outscore Randle. They have similar ceilings but Sabonis is in a much better game environment.
PG Cole Anthony $7100
ORL @ DEN
It has been a bumpy road for Anthony in his last few games. He has an 18.5DKpt and a 50.75DKpt game in there. Jalen Suggs is back from his injury and playing quite well. These two young guards are getting their minutes staggered. This allows Anthony to continue to dominate the ball and rack up the shots and assists. He leads the Magic with a 26.1% usage rate averaging 1.08FPM. Suggs is at $6300 but comes with less upside at a 25.4% usage rate averaging 0.93FPM. The Nuggets’ weakness is the PG position. They allow the 3rd-most DKpts to this spot. Monte Morris is questionable for this game. Whoever ends up starting for the Nuggets at PG will not affect this play.
Orlando ran a 9-man rotation in the first half and then 8 in the 2nd half until the game blew out. If they do this again, Anthony is going to benefit. He actually played the last 6mins of blowout run against Phoenix. Not sure that will happen again, but at least it is nice to see it did. Anthony has some weird home/road splits. He averages over 4 more DKpts on the road than at home. This includes shooting 16% better from 3. At this point into the season, these numbers might mean something. Factoring in a plus matchup and a 225.5 point total, Anthony looks pretty good. His ownership should be suppressed because of Suggs’ presence.
PG/SF Alec Burks $4800
NYK vs OKC
Burks serves as another pivot off of Randle. This game is not the most appealing. Both of these teams play slow and believe it or not, are not the worst defenses. What works in Burks’ favor is that his coach does not care about minutes. If Burks is playing well, he is going to play all the minutes that he can handle. RJ Barrett is out. They are starting Quentin Grimes in his place. Cam Reddish, Mitchell Robinson, and Nerlens Noel are all questionable. If Reddish is out, Burks might see a little bit of additional playing time. He served nearly as the direct backup for Kemba Walker. Walker really is not himself anymore. It would not be surprising to see Burks play more than he has the past few games at the expense of Walker.
With Barrett and Rose off the court, Burks has a 20.8% usage rate averaging 0.94FPM this season. He fits well with this Knicks team as he can play multiple positions. His size allows him to rebound the ball well. Burks should contribute well with the peripherals in this spot considering the Thunder should be missing a lot of shots. As long as we do not get one of those 20% shooting games, Burks has upside at this price tag. Thibs always prefers the veterans. If Grimes does anything wrong, Burks could get more run. It is not just whether Walker is playing well or not. Burks has multiple paths to earning more minutes than expected.
PF/C Kelly Olynyk $4200
DET @ WAS
This is similar to the Cole Anthony play in that people will shy away from rostering these players due to their teammates. Marvin Bagley III will be making his Pistons debut today. It is unclear how the Pistons will utilize him. We could see 2 of him, Olynyk, and Stewart play alongside each other. This is what I expect to happen. It is concerning to see Olynyk only play 5mins in his first rotation last game against the Hornets. Stewart played very well so that might have had something to do with Olynyk’s reduced playing time. Since Olynyk is a known name, many people have been rostering him at this cheap price tag. Here he is again today, but many will fade him after putting up average games. The minutes and usage are both a concern but the matchup is not.
When Olynyk was healthy, the Pistons dealt with various injuries for their core players. Cunningham and Grant both missed games. We should not expect to see Olynyk’s 24.1% usage rate and 1.13FPM to continue. Since Olynyk has been a productive player in his career, his rates should not just fall off a cliff. It is not like he is old. He is 30. The Wizards struggle against centers. Daniel Gafford will remain out today. That leaves Thomas Bryant as the starter with Rui Hachimura and Anthony Gill picking up the backup mins. This Wizards team is not the same as the beginning of the season when they were a top 10 defense. They are now bottom-third in defensive efficiency and are missing a lot of key pieces. Stewart does foul and if he gets into foul trouble, Olynyk might play near 25mins and be a smash play.
Just missed the cut: De’Aaron Fox, OG Anunoby, Jerami Grant, Ish Smith, Amir Coffey, Gary Harris, Kessler Edwards
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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