Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 02/28:
As the Thunder returns from the All-Star break, star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will also make his return.
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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Min -2.5
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Wolves, the price tag on Karl-Anthony Towns looks nice, but this frontcourt defense for the Cavs is no joke. That being said, he’s pretty matchup proof, so I won’t talk you off of him. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are pretty similar options for me here and are priced like it, Russell has been in the better form while Edwards has been a bit more volatile. I’ll have no issue with Patrick Beverley either, he’s coming off of a down game last time out due to getting into early foul trouble… but that’s somewhat expected for him. Then we can round this Wolves team out with Jarred Vanderbilt as a GPP option. From the Cavaliers, they’ll be without Darius Garland and Caris LeVert again, and add Rajon Rondo to the list who will be out for a few weeks. This pretty much confirms we’ll get Brandon Goodwin starting at point guard and looks like a solid option, he should play all the minutes he can handle. I like the matchup for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley quite a bit, I’ll continue to target big men against the Wolves. We get a Kevin Love revenge game as well… I don’t know how much revenge/grudge he really holds since that trade was a long time ago, but hey, revenge is revenge am I right? Joking aside, Love has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.31 fantasy points per minute with LeVert and Garland off of the court this season and looks like a nice option. Lauri Markkanen being back hurts his minute’s security a bit but still a guy I like for GPPs, the same can be said for Markkanen.
5-star play: Jarrett Allen
4-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Brandon Goodwin, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen, Cedi Osman
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Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.0
Starting with the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon returned last time out to play 29 minutes which is a bit more than I was expecting. I would think he’s back over the 30-minute mark again here and nearly back to being a full go. The price tag does look nice for him in a great matchup with a bad Magic defense. Brogdon back will impact the production of Tyrese Haliburton, that being said, he still dropped 45 DraftKings points last time out. I’ll probably be lower on Haliburton until his price tag comes down a bit, but he should still be productive, I’m just not sure he can continue doing what he’s been doing at a consistent rate. Buddy Hield should still continue to see massive minutes, we may see Chris Duarte cut into some of those, but not enough to really matter for me. The frontcourt should look like Oshae Brissett and Goga Bitadze starting and both are solid mid-range options in a great matchup with the Thunder. You can make a case for Isaiah Jackson in tournaments due to the upside but that price tag is up there on him. From the Magic, they were pretty chalky last time out against the Rockets and get a night matchup again here against a bad defensive unit. Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba were guys I was really heavy on and they produced just as I wrote them up which kind of sucks. Carter Jr. kept rolling while Bamba showed off his volatility and got into foul trouble. Cole Anthony looks like a good option again here, I love targeting point guards against the Pacers and we know the upside is there for him. Then the minutes for Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner should continue to be there, if I’m picking one it’s likely Suggs due to the consistent production he’s shown, but he left a sour taste in our mouth last time out with one of his worst games as a pro.
5-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Oshae Brissett, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Duarte, Goga Bitadze, Mo Bamba, Franz Wagner
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays since we had a similar scenario last time the Raptors played. The price tag on Pascal Siakam has come down and looks like a great option against a weak Nets defense. Andre Drummond doesn’t exactly scare me in the post. Gary Trent has been a bit more volatile as of late but that will come when guys are more scoring dependent, and that’s him, so probably more of a tournament option. Scottie Barnes had a rough go of it last time out as well, but wouldn’t have an issue going back to him again with OG Anunoby out. We saw Khem Birch get the start for Anunoby last time out, but just not a guy that I have a ton of interest in and we saw why last time out with scoring just three fantasy points. From the Nets, Andre Drummond will continue to start here and has produced nicely for the Nets, we know he’s a great per minute guy, so I have no issue going right back to him. Seth Curry has been great since joining the Nets with a 23.3% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute, he’ll look good again here. Goran Dragic made his Nets debut on Saturday and played 14 minutes, those minutes should come up at some point, but until they do I don’t think we can confidently play him. Bruce Brown has at least 32 minutes in four of his last five games and a guy I have no issue with falling on in the mid-range. Patty Mills, on the other hand, continues to struggle and will be a guy I’m just off of until he figures it out. Lastly, LaMarcus Aldridge looks like a fine option as well, he’s struggled to get minutes over 20 as of late which will make him more of a tournament option.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Cam Thomas
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has at least 50 DraftKings points in five straight games, however, I really have a tough time targeting guys against this Bulls defense. He’s playing out of his mind so I won’t talk you off of him, but maybe save him for GPPs tonight. I think we can say that for most of this Bulls team, Nikola Vucevic is averaging less than 30 fantasy points per game in two games against the Heat on the season. Zach LaVine actually hasn’t been terrible against the Heat, but at his current price tag, I just don’t think you need to go there. I guess you can make a case for Ayo Dosumnu and Coby White in GPPs or MME, but again, just a really tough matchup and not one that I’m seeking out. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler has cooled off a bit as of late but going back into Chicago is always a spot where I like to target him. Especially now with the potentially increased usage with Kyle Lowry out. Bam Adebayo has been on a heater as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in four straight games and will be a guy I continue to ride it out with tonight. I’ll have no issue with Tyler Herro as well with Lowry out, he has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off of the court this season.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ayo Dosunmo, Coby White
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -8.5
Starting with the Spurs, Dejounte Murray continues to crush and is coming off of a 70 point fantasy night and scored 50+ in this matchup earlier this season. He’s one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Jakob Poeltl has been in great form and now has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he’ll look like a great option again here. We kind of know what we’re getting out of Keldon Johnson at this point, he’s a nice GPP option, but not a guy that I would want in a cash game. He has shown a bit more of a consistent ceiling as of late which makes it easier to get to him with more consistent minutes as well. The rest of this team is mostly GPP options honestly on a bigger slate, but Devin Vassell would likely be my favorite option due to the minutes he’s locked in to with Derrick White out of town. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant is averaging 57.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Spurs this season and will be a spot I go right back to, I love targeting guards against the Spurs. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been volatile as of late, but the matchup is nice, so a nice GPP play at the very least. Desmond Bane and Steven Adams both look like solid secondary options and guys I wouldn’t mind landing on as filler pieces. Then the rest of this team is more MME-type plays than anything for me.
5-star play: Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant
4-star play: Jakob Poeltl, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, Desmond Bane
Deeper Value: Lonnie Walker
GPP Sleeper: Devin Vassell, Lonnie Walker, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, De’Anthony Melton
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 240.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -10.0
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without Gordon Hayward so expect more minutes for guys like Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington. LaMelo Ball is probably more of a tournament guy for me in this matchup and the volatility he’s shown, but the ceiling is massive as he’s averaged 47.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Bucks this season. I don’t love the price tag on Terry Rozier, but he’s clearly proven he can pay it off and is a legitimate Bucks killer in his career. Miles Bridges continues to show his consistent production making him a fine secondary option as well in a nice matchup with a high pace environment. I’m going to continue to go to Montrezl Harrell at this price tag, he had a rough go of it last night, but they’ll need his size and athletics tonight to deal with Giannis and Portis down low. He’s had a 17% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with the Hornets in his 131-minute sample size. From the Bucks, I love the spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo, he’s averaging 65.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hornets this season and is one of the top raw options on the slate. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are solid options as well, they won’t be guys that I prioritize but wouldn’t have any issues falling on them to fill out your builds. Bobby Portis dropped a 50 burger on the Nets last time out and would be a guy I’m good with going right back to in a great matchup against a pretty weak Hornets frontcourt.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: LaMelo Ball, Kelly Oubre, Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, Montrezl Harrell, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Montrezl Harrell, Mason Plumlee, PJ Washington, Grayson Allen, Serge Ibaka
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -4.0
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis dropped 71 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season. Obviously, it wasn’t with his new team, but clearly, a matchup that he can exploit and looks like a great option again here. De’Aaron Fox has picked it up a bit and I do think the Haliburton trade kicked his production into gear a bit as he seems to be playing with a little more sense of urgency. That being said, this price tag is really tough to get to on him even in a great matchup. Harrison Barnes looks like a solid secondary option if you happened to fall on him to complete your builds. Then the rest of this team isn’t getting enough consistent run for me to have a ton of interest in guys like Davion Mitchell, Donte DiVincenzo, Justin Holiday, etc. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Josh Giddey again in this one meaning we can go right back to the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander well. He has a 37% usage rate with 1.55 fantasy points per minute with Giddey and Lu Dort off of the court this season. Darius Bazley bounced back nicely last time out and gets a nice matchup here, I have no problem going right back to him here. Tre Mann replaced Giddey in the starting lineup last time out and looked great and now has at least 34 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’ll look like a good option in a great matchup with a bad Kings defense. Lastly, I have no problem going back to Isaiah Roby but would want him to be in the starting lineup, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for that lineup.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Isaiah Roby (if starting)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Davion Mitchell, Donte DiVincenzo
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NBA Lock of the Day: Ja Morant (DK – $9.7k; FD – $10.1k)
I’m going right back to the well with Ja Morant here. He gets a great matchup with a Spurs team that he’s destroyed this season. In two games against them on the year, he’s averaging 57.6 DraftKings points per game. I’ve been targeting point guards against the Spurs for what feels like two years and now with Derrick White’s defense out of town, the matchup becomes even better. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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