DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate - Feb. 25th, 2022

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 02/25:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 225.5

Vegas Spread: Tor -2.5

We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Raptors, we’ll need some news regarding Fred VanVleet as he comes in as questionable here. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in for the sake of this article. This is a great matchup for the Raptors so guys like VanVleet are going to look great. Pascal Siakam is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle and is averaging 54 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Hornets this season. Charlotte’s frontcourt isn’t one that scares me so he looks like a great option here. Gary Trent is a bit more scoring dependent than I would prefer but he’s certainly proved me wrong lately with how consistent he’s been. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby haven’t been in great form but we know the minutes will be there and the production is in there somewhere, so I wouldn’t have an issue if I landed on either of them. From the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without Gordon Hayward so expect more minutes for guys like Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington. LaMelo Ball is probably more of a tournament guy for me in this matchup and the volatility he’s shown, but the ceiling is massive. I don’t love the price tag on Terry Rozier especially on a bigger slate like we have tonight, but he’s a fine option if you want a sprinkle in MME. Miles Bridges continues to show his consistent production making him a fine secondary option as well. I’m going to continue to go to Montrezl Harrell at this price tag, the Hornets are giving him much more run than he was getting on the Wizards. I like the price tag much more on DraftKings, as he’s closer to $7k than $6k on FanDuel.

5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Montrezl Harrell (DraftKings)

4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Montrezl Harrell (FanDuel), Terry Rozier

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San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Sas -2.5

Starting with the Spurs, the price tag is tough to stomach on Dejounte Murray, but it’s certainly warranted considering his production. The matchup is great against the Wizards as well, he probably won’t be my top spend-up option, but a guy that I like regardless. Jakob Poeltl has been in great form as of late and gets a nice matchup against this Wizards frontcourt and scored 36.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. We kind of know what we’re getting out of Keldon Johnson at this point, he’s a nice GPP option, but not a guy that I would want in a cash game. The rest of this team is mostly GPP options honestly on a bigger slate, but Devin Vassell would likely be my favorite option due to the minutes he’s locked in to with Derrick White out of town. From the Wizards, it doesn’t sound like Kristaps Porzingis will be available for his Wizards debut while Thomas Bryant comes in as questionable. If he ends up missing as well, Daniel Gafford will look like a great value option, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding his status. Kyle Kuzma had a stinker before the break, but gets a great matchup here and has a 28.1% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute with Beal, Dinwiddie, and Harrell off of the court this season. Deni Avdija has emerged as a somewhat productive player and is finally getting consistent minutes which should continue here. I never can get Kentavious Caldwell-Pope right, but the shots will definitely be there for him. Raul Neto should continue to start for the Wizards but isn’t exactly a sexy option and I kind of like Ish Smith as a GPP pivot off of him. Then we can round this team out with Corey Kispert in tournaments, as he can be scoring dependent as well.

5-star play: Dejounte Murray, Kyle Kuzma

4-star play: Jakob Poeltl, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Daniel Gafford (if starting), Deni Avdija, Raul Neto

Deeper Value: Daniel Gafford

GPP Sleeper: Devin Vassell, Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Corey Kispert

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 218.0

Vegas Spread: Ind -7.0

Starting with the Thunder, they’ll got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back last night and played 35 minutes, so I would assume he’s not on any sort of minutes restriction (assuming he’s active on the back end of this back to back). With him back in the lineup, I’ll be underweight on Josh Giddey at this price tag, I would expect him to lose some production as SGA grabs some of that usage back. I’m still okay going back to Darius Bazley however, he’s had back-to-back tough games, so might be more apt to play him in tournaments, but the matchup is nice. I would expect guys like Tre Mann and Aaron Wiggins to lose some minutes with Gilgeous-Alexander back as well. From the Pacers, it sounds like Malcolm Brogdon will return to the lineup here, but I would expect he’s on a pretty hard minutes restriction considering he’s been out since the middle of January, and really only played two games in January. They have no reason to rush him back. Brogdon back will impact the production of Tyrese Haliburton, that being said, with the likely minute’s restriction on Brogdon, I wouldn’t look too much into it, I still like Haliburton a good amount here. Buddy Hield should still continue to see massive minutes, it does sound like Chris Duarte has a chance to return which would take a few minutes away, but not too much of an impact. The frontcourt should look like Oshae Brissett and Goga Bitadze starting and both are solid mid-range options in a great matchup with the Thunder.

5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

4-star play: Josh Giddey, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Oshae Brissett

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Darius Bazley, Goga Bitadze

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Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Orl -4.0

Starting with the Rockets, this will look like a really nice spot for Christian Wood. He had a great game against them earlier in the season and the frontcourt of the Magic isn’t one that scares me. The upside is huge here and a guy I like a good amount. The same can be said for Kevin Porter Jr., he’s been a bit volatile as of late, but the matchup is great and a guy I like getting some exposure to here. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Jae’Sean Tate isn’t a sexy option but he’s consistently producing in the high 20’s/low 30’s if you happen to land on him. Dennis Schroder has played at least 30 minutes in both of his games with the Rockets, however, with Porter Jr. back I would think he moves back to the bench and will likely play closer to 20-25 minutes. Then we can round this team out with Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green as tournament guys as well. From the Magic, I love targeting the Rockets with big men, so Wendell Carter Jr. is going to look great with Mo Bamba being a solid GPP option. Cole Anthony is probably more of a tournament guy due to the volatility he’s shown as of late, but the Rockets provide a really secure spot, so I wouldn’t have an issue if you landed on him in your cash games. Then the minutes for Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner should continue to be there, if I’m picking one it’s likely Suggs due to the consistent production he’s shown, but would be okay with either of them in this matchup.

5-star play: Christian Wood, Wendell Carter Jr.

4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jae’Sean Tate, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Mo Bamba

I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 211.5

Vegas Spread: Mia -5.5

Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler got back to his usual form going into the break with at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and would be a guy I would be okay with here. I don’t love the pace in this game but he’s a guy that can perform just fine in the half-court. Bam Adebayo is in a similar boat, he has at least 44 DraftKings points in four straight games and this Knicks frontcourt isn’t one that scares me. Kyle Lowry was a guy that I was all over in that Hornets game right before the break but Tyler Herro being back will take away some of his production. These two are probably more of secondary options considering the matchup, but the minutes will certainly be there for them. From the Knicks, Kemba Walker is going to be inactive for the rest of the season, and doesn’t sound like Derrick Rose will make it back for this game. RJ Barrett does come in as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates around him. That being said, assuming Barrett plays, the only guy I’ll have any sort of interest in on the Knicks is Julius Randle simply due to how good this Heat defense is and not exactly a team I want to target for DFS. Even with Randle, he’s struggled in this matchup with just 22.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. You can probably make a case for Mitchell Robinson for tournaments as well, but again, not a team that I’m in love with.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Julius Randle

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson

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Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: 228.5

Vegas Spread: Phi -2.5

Starting with the Sixers, James Harden will make his Sixers debut here so we will need to see how the rest of the team operates around him. I would assume these guys lose at least some usage and likely some production, as Harden brings in a 28.8% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute on the season. I don’t think I want to go too crazy with him in his first game as we try and analyze how he’ll fit with the team, but the matchup is great and he can put up fantasy points in a hurry. The one guy I’m really not all that concerned about losing a ton of production is Joel Embiid, especially in an elite matchup with the Wolves. The price tag is way up on him but he dropped 70 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and looks like a nice option. I’ll likely be in wait-and-see mode on Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris as I think they’re the prime candidates to lose some usage and production with Harden on the team, so just keep an eye on this one. from the Wolves, the price tag came up overnight on Karl-Anthony Towns, he still looks like a fine option, but I don’t exactly love the matchup with Embiid down low. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are pretty similar options for me here and are priced like it, Russell has been in the better form while Edwards has been a bit more volatile. I’ll have no issue with Patrick Beverley either, he continues to prove me wrong this season and is playing some consistent ball. Then we can round this Wolves team out with Jarred Vanderbilt as a GPP option.

5-star play: Joel Embiid

4-star play: James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Jarred Vanderbilt

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Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Utah -6.0

Starting with the Mavs, Luka Doncic went into the All-Star break on an absolute heater with at least 65 DraftKings points in four of his final five games and will continue to look like a great option here. The Jazz defense is better than most but plays fast enough that I don’t really think too much about it when it comes to these matchup-proof players. Jalen Brunson continues to produce well and has a 23.9% usage rate and 0.94 fantasy points per minute with Tim Hardaway and Kristaps Porzingis off of the court this season. That said, Spencer Dinwiddie is kind of known to be a bit of a usage hog, so he may hurt those rates going forward. Dinwiddie hasn’t looked great with the Mavs, so I’ll make him prove it to me before playing him. Then we can round the team out with Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber as secondary options. From the Jazz, I really like the spot for Donovan Mitchell, and has performed well in this matchup this season, the Mavs aren’t exactly an elite defense. Rudy Gobert went into the break on a bit of a cold streak but this looks like a great bounce-back spot for him against a weak frontcourt. We kind of know what we’re getting with Mike Conley at this point, he’s about a fantasy point per minute guy and someone I’m fine with landing on. Then guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson will round this team out as GPP options.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell

4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson

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New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 225.0

Vegas Spread: Utah -6.0

Starting with the Pelicans, CJ McCollum has been the most productive guy on the team since being traded over from the Blazers. He’ll look like a solid option again here and has a 29.7% usage rate with 1.30 fantasy points per minute with the Pelicans. Brandon Ingram has been more volatile and will likely be more of a GPP option for me, he’s another guy that I can never seem to get right. I don’t have an issue getting to Jonas Valanciunas here, they’ll need his size to deal with Ayton down low, and has a huge ceiling when he gets the minutes. Jaxson Hayes has been starting next to him as of late and should see around 25 minutes again in this one, he’ll look like a solid mid-range option assuming he starts. Then guys like Herbert Jones and Devonte’ Graham are fine filler pieces, although Graham will be more of a GPP option with him back on the bench. From the Suns, we saw a new starting lineup from them last night with Chris Paul out. I was thinking we would see Aaron Holiday in the starting lineup, but that wasn’t the case as we got both Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder in the starting lineup and both performed well and will look like nice options here. I was all over Devin Booker yesterday, in fact, he was my lock of the day and he crushed it. He’s going to handle more responsibility on this team with Paul out of the lineup. Below is how the Suns have operated with Paul off of the court this season:

• Devin Booker – 33.1% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
• Deandre Ayton – 21.0% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
• Mikal Bridges – 13.3% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
• Cam Johnson – 16.6% usage rate; 0.89 fpm

The matchup sets up well for the Suns again here, and these guys will look great. Side note, Holiday did come off of the bench to play 25 minutes but his price skyrocketed overnight with Paul out, I can’t play him at $5k, he’s not exactly a point-per-minute monster.

5-star play: Devin Booker

4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Cam Johnson, Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jaxson Hayes, Devonte’ Graham, Herbert Jones, Mikal Bridges

Use the 2021-22 NBA DFS Sim Model and build stronger lineups for cash games and/or large-field tournaments! Run the slate 1000 times and see who comes out on top most often, who creates value, and who is most likely to post that gpp-winning outlier…

NBA Lock of the Day: Montrezl Harrell (DK – $5.6k)

Montrezl Harrell is going to be a DraftKings only lock for me tonight due to the price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll keep my FanDuel lock of the day for our VIP members in Slack chat, so come get signed up using promo code MADNESS for 10% off. That said, it’s hard not to like Harrell at this DraftKings price tag, he’s priced like he was on the Wizards where he was getting 20-25 minutes per game. That has changed since joining the Hornets and is now getting up around the 30 minutes range, he’s a nice per minute guy as well, so he’ll look like a great option on DraftKings here. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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