Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Dec 9, 2021; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Malik Monk (11) during the first half against the Memphis Grizzles at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Bobby Portis Over 14.5pts
MIL @ BKN
Giannis Antetokounmpo should return for this showdown against the Brooklyn Nets. It is possible that he plays some center with Brook Lopez still out for the foreseeable future. However, DeMarcus Cousins was waived. Sandro Mamukelashvili has not really been a part of the rotation this season. Bobby Portis got into significant foul trouble last game which limited him to only 22mins. Jrue Holiday, one of the big pieces for this team is out tonight. In addition, Grayson Allen, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, and George Hill are all out as well. The Bucks are going to use Wesley Matthews and other lower usage players to fill these mins. That means more usage for Portis.
The Nets are about league average in points and 3s allowed to opposing centers. Portis is not afraid to shoot. With Giannis by his side, defenses are going to try to stop him first. This could open shots up for Portis. He is 3rd on the team in usage rate at 25.9%, behind Giannis and Khris Middleton when Jrue Holiday is out. The shots should be dominated by these 3 players tonight. This game has the highest total of the slate at 232.5 with the Nets favored by 4.5pts. He has been under 14.5 the last few games but the Bucks were pretty much fully healthy for those games. Portis could see closer to 30mins tonight with all the injuries the team is dealing with.
Nicolas Claxton Under 28.5Fpts
BKN vs MIL
It seems as if the Nets trot out a different lineup every single game. LaMarcus Aldridge, who the Nets really like, did not start the last game. Maybe it was to limit his mins as he is dealing with a foot injury. If Claxton does not start tonight, the under is even more in play. Make sure to hop on it when the Nets release their lineup. Claxton is probably the Nets best option at center. He is much more athletic than the other big men on this team. Claxton is a bit reliant on defensive stats. The Bucks do not get blocked often as they allow 4.5blocks to opponents per game this season. It would make sense that Steve Nash should keep Claxton out there to protect the rim against Giannis. In that case, Claxton could play high 20s in mins.
Even in starts, Claxton is not a lock to close the game. Sometimes the Nets will finish games without a true center. They opt for more floor spacing and Claxton ends up playing around 22mins. Even without Brook Lopez for much of this season, the Bucks allow the 4th-least points in the paint. Milwaukee is tied for the 6th-best rebounding rate. The way Claxton racks up fantasy points are not ideal in this spot. The Bucks are among the best at preventing the different ways Claxton accumulates his fantasy stats. Claxton averages 0.99FPM but accounting for the tough matchup and uncertainty in mins, this looks to be an under.
De’Aaron Fox Over 5.0asts
SAC @ DEN
Tyrese Haliburton is undoubtedly cutting into Fox’s assists. He leads the team in assists and potential assists. However, these two guards get their minutes staggered. On the season, Fox averages 5.2asts with an adjusted ast mark of 6.2. The Nuggets do play slow but the Kings play at one of the fastest paces in the league. This game has a 225 total so a lot of points will be put up. Fox leads the team with a 28.2% usage rate. Denver allows the 4th-most assists to opposing PGs at 9.02 per game. Fox has hit the over on this number in his last 4 games. These games include some slow-paced, good defensive teams.
Fox’s line at exactly 5.0 also provides a safety net in case he only records 5 assists. For a talented PG like Fox who is going to have the ball in his hands a ton, it is hard to envision him having less than 5 assists tonight. The matchup is more favorable than it seems. Sacramento was pretty depleted just a few weeks ago but has mostly everyone healthy now with the exception of Richaun Holmes and Chimezie Metu. It would be better if Holmes could play since he is a talented roll man capable of scoring off passes. The Kings should continue to start Damian Jones tonight who has filled in pretty well for Holmes.
Malik Monk Over 16.5pts
LAL vs ATL
This line probably is going to increase as the day goes on. Monk was a popular pick last game as well and he ended up hitting the over. He has another solid matchup against the Hawks tonight. In his last game against the Kings, Monk scored 24pts. Sacramento allows the 3rd-most points to opposing SGs. Atlanta allows the 2nd-most points. He is playing extremely well right now and should continue to see a lot of shot volume. This game will be at home where Monk has shot the ball better at. He has the starting SG spot locked down and should play 30+mins as long as this game stays competitive.
The Lakers stagger LeBron and Westbrook’s mins. Monk plays the traditional 4 rotations, one per quarter. He is going to be on the court at all times with at least one of LeBron or Westbrook. These two are among the best at finding their teammates to score. In addition, Monk is a gifted scorer in that he can create for himself too. With his recent form, this line probably should have been set a little higher. Again, this number might move as this is a late-night hammer game which allows ample time for the line to be adjusted.
Just missed the cut: Dejounte Murray O43Fpts, Christian Wood O17.5pts, Kevin Porter Jr. O14.5pts, DeMar DeRozan O4.5rebs, Kyle Kuzma O17.5pts, Jared Vanderbilt 1H O3.5pts
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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