Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Nov 19, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Golden State Warriors center Kevon Looney (5) gets a rebound during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Kevon Looney Over 6.5rebs
GSW @ MIL
Draymond Green will miss this game against Milwaukee. This is significant as the Warriors use Green at center which leaves Looney in a limited role. He should play mid20s mins in a competitive game. The Bucks are a tough matchup for any team but especially down low. Without Green, Looney is their best option inside. In addition, whoever the Warriors start in place of Draymond, will have a lower rebounding rate than him. Golden State started Otto Porter Jr. against the Pelicans. After Green subbed out quickly against the Cavaliers, Juan Toscano-Anderson took over who also started against the Pelicans. However, Gary Payton II started the 2nd half with Andrew Wiggins sliding down to the 4. Against a big team tonight, the Warriors are going to need Looney out there.
In his last 3 games, Looney has recorded 9, 18, and 6 rebounds. He played 20, 29, and 18 mins in those games respectively. The Bucks are an elite team. That does not change the fact that they play at a fast pace. This game has a 223 total with the Bucks favored by 3pts. This tough matchup is countered by the pace and high-scoring environment. This 6.5 line feels too low as it would only be appropriate if Green was going to play. With Green out, Looney will have more rebounding opportunities and more minutes. There is always foul trouble risk for anyone protecting the paint against Giannis. Looney usually does not deal with much foul trouble though.
Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 3s
GSW @ MIL
With Klay Thompson’s return, Wiggins’ usage has evidently dropped. He had a 20.7% usage rate last game against the Grizzlies. On the season, Wiggins has a 23.8% usage rate. Thompson’s usage has been through the roof as the Warriors want to give him as many shots as possible in his limited playing time. Thompson’s usage in his first 2 games since returning has been 41.8 and 37.3%. No NBA player has a 40% usage rate. This is going to come down and Wiggins should take back some of that usage he had before. Wiggins averages 2.2 3s made this season on 5.3 attempts a game which is 42%. Yes, Thompson is back. That does not mean Wiggins is unplayable now. He is still a key piece to this team.
The Bucks have been a funnel defense for years and are allowing the most 3pt attempts again this season. Milwaukee is going to focus on stopping Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. That will leave Wiggins with more room to operate. He is shooting an elite 42% from deep and should get more than 5 attempts tonight because of the matchup. He probably sees some Khris Middleton defense, who has not played that well on that side of the ball this year. Besides, Wiggins’ attempts are likely coming from catch and shoot opportunities where individual matchups will not matter. The attempts will be there. It is simply up to Wiggins to knock down just two of those.
Reggie Jackson Over 15.5pts
LAC @ NOP
The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George again. Under these circumstances, Jackson leads the team with a 30.8% usage rate. Similar to the Wizards, the Pelicans are not the same fast-paced team they have been over the years. However, the Pelicans have the 4th-worst defensive efficiency rating this year. Jackson has a plus matchup tonight. The Pelicans allow the 2nd-most points to opposing PGs. The Clippers moved Eric Bledsoe back to the bench. Though this hurts Jackson more in the assists category, this puts the ball in Jackson’s hands even more. Looking at Jackson’s last 4 games, it is as consistently bad as it gets. He has shot 5-16, 5-15, 5-14, 5-15. These 4 games were not in the best spots. Tonight is the easiest matchup the Clippers have had in the last 4 games.
Marcus Morris is the other go-to player for this squad. His line is set at 17.5pts. He does have a tough individual matchup as Herbert Jones should be his primary defender. Jones is a defensive standout. He has contained opposing PFs to the least pts this season. Just like good offense beats good defense, if a player puts up a lot of shots and plays big minutes, he can still hit the over. Strictly from a matchup perspective, Jackson and Morris have polar opposite matchups. I would rather take the much more inviting matchup that Jackson has than go to Morris. Based on the scoring options the Clippers have right now if Morris cannot get it going, it likely will be on Jackson.
Will Barton Over 13.5pts
DEN vs POR
Barton should be back tonight after a one-game absence. Even without their backcourt duo, the Blazers are playing right at league average in terms of pace. Portland has the 2nd-worst defensive efficiency in the league. The Nuggets have been starting Barton at SG the past few games. In competitive games, Denver will close with a guard off the bench and go smaller. For DvP, Portland somehow allows the 7th-least points to opposing SGs. This might be concerning but matchup and usage matter. Barton is 2nd to Nikola Jokic in the starting unit for usage at 22.4% with Michael Porter Jr. off the court this season.
He has not exactly shot the ball well in his past games. Barton is shooting 42% on the year but has shot below that mark in 5 consecutive games. Still, he has hit the over in 2 of those 5 contests. The Blazers are one of the easier matchups out there. Barton would see Ben McLemore but Portland could opt to go with better defenders in Nassir Little or Robert Covington and give up size by moving McLemore to guard a bigger Denver player. As for DvP, the Blazers allow the most points to opposing SFs, a position that Barton will get some mins in. I expect him to shoot better and it would not take much to score 14pts. If you are concerned with blowout, take the 1st half line of 6.5.
Just missed the cut: Jordan Nwora U23.5Fpts, Jaren Jackson Jr. O5.5rebs (if Steven Adams out), Josh Hart O13.5pts, Nassir Little O13.5pts, Jusuf Nurkic O3.5asts, Dennis Smith Jr. O27.5Fpts
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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