Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Dec 12, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks shooting guard Immanuel Quickley (5) grabs a loose ball during the second half against the Milwaukee Bucks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton $7300 / PG De’Aaron Fox $7100
SAC @ LAL
Ah, a nice 5 game slate today. At least it seems that way for now. It is crucial to be available to late swap with how wacky the NBA slates are these days. The problem today is that there is an island game between the Kings and the Lakers. Luckily, there is not anything significant to wait on at least for now. Speaking of the Kings, their backcourt features a pair of interesting options. Derrick White will be a popular option today at $7200. This will draw away the ownership for both Haliburton and Fox. The Lakers are one of the better fantasy matchups out there. They play at the fastest pace in the league. Sacramento plays at the 5th-fastest pace. This game is going to be a track meet and should feature the highest total of the slate. LA allows the 2nd-most DKpts to opponent PGs and the 4th-most DKpts to SGs.
Fox has a 27.9% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM with Richaun Holmes off the floor. Haliburton has a 17.5% usage rate averaging 1.01FPM. Though the usage rates are drastically different, they produce at a similar rate. One of the two is on the court pretty much at all times for the Kings. They get their minutes staggered which is huge as the other will not eat into the other’s shots and assists. I prefer Fox as he has a slightly higher ceiling. Those $200 in savings could be useful. If someone from this game pops up as questionable, it could be wise to roster Haliburton as that allows you to have more flexibility to swap. Since this backcourt produces at similar rates, it is ok to take a stance. If one player is garnering much more ownership, flipping it would be a strong tournament move.
SF/PF OG Anunoby $7000
TOR vs SAS
After a long period of protocols, the Raptors are finally healthy again. It did not take long for the Toronto starters to play heavy minutes. Nick Nurse is not afraid to run a short rotation and play his key guys close or over 40mins. Their last game turned into a blowout otherwise Pascal Siakam might have actually played 40mins. This will be Anunoby’s third game back. He was on track to play 35mins so it is very possible that he sees high 30s in mins today. He played 36mins in his first game back against the Clippers. Nurse uses Siakam at center when the Raptors are healthy. In other situations, the Raptors deploy Khem Birch, Precious Achiuwa, or Chris Boucher at the 5. This hurts everyone’s rebounding numbers because a center is playing with the 4 other starters as opposed to Siakam, who is not a true center. This should allow Anunoby to rebound well.
It is not surprising to see OG shoot 4-11 in his second game back. Players should show signs of rust after a long layoff. This matchup against San Antonio is pretty inviting. They play at the 4th-fastest pace in the league and are about league average in defensive efficiency. They allow the 7th-most DKpts to opposing PFs. With everyone healthy, Anunoby might not be tasked with doing as much. However, his price seems a bit cheap. VanVleet, Siakam, and Barnes are all significantly more expensive than him. Anunoby has 50+DKpt upside no matter who he is playing with or against. He is a phenomenal defender which gives him defensive production. Siakam is going to need to keep Jakob Poeltl off the glass which could allow Anunoby or Barnes to rebound more. Hopefully, it is Anunoby who benefits but Dejounte Murray is going to be out. He is an elite rebounder at the guard position. Not too many will be on Anunoby with a healthy Raptors team today.
C Jakob Poeltl $6100
SAS @ TOR
On the other side of the ball, Poeltl continues to be priced as a bargain. It has been tough to roster Poeltl since the Spurs are always on big slates where there are better value options or with elite centers in Jokic and Embiid. Poeltl’s ownership is always low and maybe that continues tonight. Naturally, more people will get to him than the single digits on other slates because it is a smaller player pool. However, Poeltl has not done anything that catches the eye of DFS players recently. Besides that last game, he has put up some real duds. With Dejounte Murray out, Poeltl has a 20.1% usage rate averaging 1.13FPM. He gets bumps in his usage rate, rebounding rate, and FPM production. Already an elite rebounder, Poeltl could be even more of a force on the glass tonight. Toronto is middle of the pack in rebounding rate. Since Siakam is not a true center, they could struggle with containing Poeltl on the glass.
In addition to being average at cleaning the glass, the Raptors allow the 4th-most blocks to opposing centers. Poeltl is a traditional center whose game revolves around inside scoring, rebounding, and defending. He has his starting role locked down and is clearly the preferred option over Drew Eubanks and Jock Landale. If the bench shows any signs of weakness, Poeltl is inserted right back into the game. If you bet on player props, a double-double with a Spurs win should have some good odds. The Raptors are favored to win but it does correlate in that a good performance from Poeltl could contribute to a Spurs’ victory. Derrick White and Devin Vassell should be chalk today. People are not going to roster a third player from the same team at a high rate because it just seems wrong. He is not going to be in the single digits, but this will keep Poeltl’s ownership in check even on a small slate.
PG/SG Immanuel Quickley $4400
NYK vs IND
I late swapped on to Quickley last week when Kemba Walker was ruled out for the OKC game after lock. It did not work but those are the types of moves that can win you a tournament. Since Quickley has not shot the ball well since Walker went down, he is going to be a sneaky option. The Knicks are starting Miles McBride in place of Walker. As a bench player, Quickley is not going to get a lot of attention. It is no secret that this dude has a ton of upside. Even when Walker and Derrick Rose were healthy, Quickley sometimes closed games. Quickley has struggled with his shot resulting in reduced playing time. He is going to have that monster game soon especially at this price. In addition to the guards, Julius Randle is also out. Under these circumstances, Quickley is 2nd on the team in usage behind RJ Barrett at 25.6% while averaging 0.98FPM.
Barrett will be the chalk Knicks player. His minutes are much safer but he only produces at a 0.99FPM rate. He is also $1200 more expensive but fills the SF slot. Last game, Alec Burks started the 2nd half over McBride. Though McBride starts, he does not play big mins. Tom Thibodeau will start 2nd halves with different players based on performance. He has done this multiple times this season. It very well could be Quickley today if he could just shoot better. The Pacers are not good defensively. They are dealing with some key injuries that will further weaken their perimeter defense. Guys like Duane Washington Jr. and Keifer Sykes might be value plays but they certainly are not going to be the reason to fade Quickley. He has 10x upside at this price. I hope he continues to come off the bench so his ownership stays suppressed. If we get the Knicks lineup after lock and he is starting, make sure to late swap a lot of him in.
Just missed the cut: Chris Paul, Jaren Jackson Jr., Alec Burks, Keldon Johnson, Gary Trent Jr., Harrison Barnes, Steven Adams, Buddy Hield, Evan Fournier
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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