Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Jan 21, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Russell Westbrook (0) smiles against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
PG Russell Westbrook $8500
LAL @ PHI
We have a 2 game slate for today. Small slates are the norm for Thursdays. If you like a player who is below 20%, make sure you get on top of that number. Finding low-owned plays on these type of slates are hard to come by. All the studs should command significant ownership with the exception of Anthony Davis. He should remain on a limit but is priced for a full workload. Westbrook is having quite the roller coaster of a season. He is constantly blamed for the Lakers’ struggles. That is all going to cause his ownership to stay low today. He is almost 3k cheaper than where he was a couple of months ago. This is not the best matchup but there are only 2 games to choose from. Factoring in ownership, Westbrook is someone that offers sneaky tournament-winning upside.
Westbrook is 2nd on the team in usage behind only LeBron James. He has a 27.6% usage rate averaging 1.18FPM. Those days of a walking triple-double are gone. Playing alongside more talent inevitably is cutting into his fantasy production. Now with AD’s return, there is even more of a barrier that Westbrook has to overcome for that huge fantasy game. AD is going to be limited. Westbrook will have his mins staggered with LeBron and AD just like how they have been all season long. There is some history between Westbrook and Embiid so that is one narrative for today. The 76ers are dealing with some injuries with Seth Curry and Shake Milton out today. Danny Green is questionable which would help considering he is a defensive player. This is a contraian play as nobody is priced in Westbrook’s range.
SG Klay Thompson $5300
GSW vs MIN
Thompson most likely sat out recently for some rest. I am not worried about his knee as he returned to play a season-high 26mins. Minnesota allows the 6th-most 3pt field goal attempts this season. To the SG position, they allow the 7th-most 3pt makes. Thompson has a 31% usage rate averaging 1.10FPM. This usage rate seems a bit too high so I am not sure if that is going to be sustainable. It is clear that Steve Kerr wants Thompson to put up as many shots as possible to get back into rhythm. Since he is going to remain on a mins limit for a while, he will get all the shots when he is out there on the court. This includes playing time without Curry which will make him the go-to scorer. The Warriors will once again be without Draymond Green. They are favored by 5.5 with a 228 total.
In blowouts, the Warriors still let Thompson play in the 4th quarter because he needs to get his mins. He might lose a couple of minutes but that could mean he had a great game contributing to the blowout. Compared to the other starters, Thompson’s mins would be the safest in the event of a blowout. He had 6 assists last game but that is an outlier. Even without Green, he is not a playmaker. The Warriors are extremely dangerous everywhere but especially at home. Klay’s ownership should be low because people do not want to roster limited players. He should be priced above 6k when he is capable of playing a full workload. If he could see 28mins tonight, that should be enough to make for a quality play.
C Andre Drummond $3800
PHI vs LAL
Joel Embiid continues to be low-owned even though he has been scorching hot. That should change though as he is the most expensive player on the slate. There is no Nikola Jokic so he is the center to pay up for. By no means am I saying to fade Embiid. Please roster him. Of course, no play is a lock. Embiid does get into foul trouble and does visit the locker room quite often. In the event that either of those happens, Drummond would be the direct benefit. Even off the bench, Drummond can return value because of how productive he is. He has a 17.5% usage rate averaging 1.24FPM. The 76ers will need size against the Lakers. Drummond will never share the court with Embiid. However, all the mins Embiid does not play, go to Drummond. Pairing Drummond with Towns or just punting center is a contrarian way to build on today’s slate.
For the narrative players out there, Drummond is a former Laker. He is the 2nd-most productive player on this roster behind only Embiid. Center is the most valuable position in DFS because of the opportunity cost attached to it. There is a steep drop-off after Embiid and Towns tonight. If these 2 do not score enough, punting center should be optimal. This is most likely not the most likely outcome but there is a clear path for Drummond to be that must-have today if something were to happen to Embiid. Drummond’s price has fallen quite a bit. Even in a backup role, there is too much upside to not take a chance on him.
PF/C Naz Reid $3200
MIN @ GSW
Reid is another similar play to Drummond. Reid and Towns rarely share the court together. If Reid is playing well, the Wolves will let it happen. Against this small Warriors team though, tonight is probably not the night. The thought process for Reid is exactly the same as Drummond. If something were to happen to Towns, Reid is going to benefit greatly. He is not as productive as Drummond if you want to compare these 2 backup centers. Reid has a 22.6% usage rate averaging 1.08FPM. With Kevon Looney as the lone big man for Golden State, Reid should be able to feast when he is out there.
Though he is not as productive as Drummond, Reid is cheaper. The most notable factor is that he has PF eligibility. PF looks to be pretty weak today. Nemanja Bjelica might be the preferred punt play at this position due to his recent 32.5DKpt game. In Reid’s last game, he put up a measly 5.25DKpts. If you are trying to play the blowout game script, Reid is not going to benefit much from it. He used to get blowout run but now with Nathan Knight on the team, those mins belong to him. If I have to choose one, Drummond is the better play. If you need a PF, go with Reid. Both of them provide extremely high upside if things go their way.
Just missed the cut: Tyrese Maxey, Kevon Looney, Malik Beasley, Nemanja Bjelica, Talen Horton-Tucker, Jaden McDaniels, Damion Lee, Dwight Howard
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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