Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Jan 12, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) dribbles the ball while defended by Brooklyn Nets forward Blake Griffin (2) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
C Nikola Vucevic $9500
CHI @ OKC
Today we have a small slate filled with injuries. Cam Johnson, Jeremy Lamb, and whoever starts at center for the Knicks should all be popular value options. Nobody is priced above 10k. There are several players that are overpriced but will still be in play because there is value to fit them in and it is a small slate. Raw points are much more important than pt/$ on these days. This puts Nikola Vucevic very much in play. He is coming off of a 33.75DK game against the Magic on Sunday. Vucevic shot 4/19 and fouled out in 30mins. He struggled and kicked a chair in frustration. The Bulls are on a back-to-back so a quick turnaround might just be what Vucevic needs. Chicago is dealing with a plethora of injuries. Vucevic and DeRozan are the two go-to players for this team. DeRozan is PF eligible and should be the most popular option at this position. Vucevic is the perfect pivot off of DeRozan.
Taking Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso off the court this season, Vucevic has a 24.7% usage rate averaging 1.28FPM. This is close to elite production. With this game in OKC and the Bulls on a back-to-back, it should be competitive. Vucevic should be looking at 35-37 mins in close games. Since the Thunder are one of the bottom-feeders, they should miss a lot of shots giving Vucevic a lot of rebounding opportunities. OKC allows the 2nd-most rebounds to opposing centers this season. Jonas Valacinuas should be the chalk center with Nerlens Noel as a potential value. Paying up for Vucevic is one of the best tournament moves on this slate. He has not done much recently to justify this price tag but can be the highest scoring player on the slate at lower ownership compared to the other 9k+ players.
PF Darius Bazley $4400
OKC vs CHI
Bazley has been in and out of the starting lineup for the past week. Either way, he is still going to be a tournament play. His playing time is not drastically affected by whether he is starting or not. I prefer him to come off the bench as he would not have to share as much court time with SGA. Bazley is currently ice cold. In his last four games, he is shooting 1/14 from 3. He does not offer much outside of points and rebounds. Bazley is in play because of how weak the PF position is today. Other than DeRozan, Cam Johnson is the only other guy that should pick up significant ownership. Certainly, we need to consider other PF options. Bazley will be one of them because he has 30pt upside.
Out of the Thunder players who do get significant run, Bazley is 3rd in FPM behind SGA and Josh Giddey. He has a 17.9% usage rate averaging 0.85FPM. These will be higher if he is not sharing the court with SGA and Giddey. He is more of a 4 but he has been used as the backup center at times. For those moments, Bazley becomes more productive with the increased rebounds. Like many of his teammates, Bazley is young. He has strong home/road shooting splits. Bazley shoots more than 5% better at home than on the road translating into an additional 2.4DKpts compared to when he is away.
PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker $3800
NOP vs IND
Since NAW is a popular name, he will get some ownership. I am including him here because he probably does not get enough ownership. The Pelicans likely will start Garrett Temple in place of Brandon Ingram. However, this gives NAW the chance to close. If Caris LeVert plays, New Orleans might want Temple out there on him while Josh Hart covers Chris Duarte. If LeVert is out, NAW would have a better chance of closing alongside Graham and Hart. Graham is currently questionable. If he is out then NAW might be the highest-owned player on the slate. Assuming Graham is ruled in before lock, NAW’s ownership should be held in check.
The Pacers are struggling right now even more than they typically do on the defensive end. Since Ingram is out, this game should be competitive. This game has a 214.5 total with the Pelicans favored by 1.5 at home. JoVal will be the guy but the Pelicans need ball handlers and creators. NAW fills that role at a very cheap price tag. With Ingram out, NAW leads the team in usage at 27.2% averaging 0.87FPM. We have seen him play for a few seasons now. He has a ton of upside because he is so involved when he is on the court. He has 10x upside today with Ingram out. Depending on where his ownership ends up, NAW might be the best value on the slate.
SG/SF Cedi Osman $3300
CLE vs NYK
Lauri Markkanen picked up a severe ankle injury last game. Dean Wade took over for a lot of those minutes. Wade is not that productive of a fantasy player so he is not on my radar. Though he would be the favorite to start, he is not a lock to close the game. The Cavs have a lot of wing options. Osman is one of them. It makes more sense for him to pick up those closing mins with RJ Barrett at the 3. It is very unfortunate to see the injuries piling up for this elite defensive unit. Without Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio, and Markkanen on the floor, Osman is 3rd in usage behind Darius Garland and Kevin Love at 23.2% averaging 0.81FPM. Love is going to continue to see low 20s mins because of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. These three do not share the court together.
This is not the best matchup for a ceiling game for any player. Osman does fill multiple roster spots as one of the cheapest viable players on the slate. If he starts, Osman is going to pick up a lot of ownership. In the past, he has done well in spot starts. This game is the first to lock meaning that we will have the lineup. That is going to drive his ownership up if he does get the nod. If he comes off the bench, people will roster Jeremy Lamb if LeVert is out as well as Cam Johnson more. Lamb cannot play that many minutes due to his injuries. Johnson would be the best option but he is not a lock since he is sharing the court with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Osman has the upside for tournaments especially on a small slate like this.
Just missed the cut: Kevin Love, Lu Dort, Royce O’Neale (if Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside out), Kenrich Williams, Troy Brown Jr., Eric Paschall (if Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside out), Garrett Temple, Landry Shamet, Taj Gibson
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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