Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 01/06:
Dec 11, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole (3) dribbles the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 207.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -1.5
We’ll get started with the Celtics side of things, Jayson Tatum came back down to Earth last time out and is averaging 42 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season, I have no issue going right back to him here. Jaylen Brown’s production wasn’t impacted by Tatum returning last night as he looked good again, he’s performed really well against the Knicks this season averaging 58.1 DraftKings points per game in those two games. The minutes are promising on Robert Williams but I don’t know that I can pay this price for him with Al Horford and Enes Freedom back in the lineup. Due to the smaller slate, both Williams and Horford would be more of tournament options for me but still in play with the limited player pool we will likely have tonight. Marcus Smart is in the same boat as Brown where his production really wasn’t hurt all that much with Tatum back in the lineup last night, he looks like a solid secondary option again here. Then we can round the Celtics out with Dennis Schroder as a tournament option at the point guard position. From the Knicks, they’ll be without Kemba Walker and of course Derrick Rose again here. Julius Randle had a nice bounce-back game last time, he has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.2 fantasy points per minute with Rose and Kemba off of the court this season. RJ Barrett had a great game last time out as well and looks like a good option here, he should play all the minutes he can handle again. Alec Burks should see his minutes more secure with Kemba out as well which puts him back in play, his price has dropped too which makes him easier to get to in this spot. Then we can round the Knicks out with GPP options like Mitchell Robinson and Evan Fournier. The minutes have been more consistent for Robinson which makes him interesting on a short slate due to his upside.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Julius Randle
4-star play: Al Horford, Marcus Smart, RJ Barrett, Alec Burks
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier
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Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -12.5
Starting with the Pistons, they’re beginning to get healthier as they have a few guys that have cleared health and safety protocols but still waiting on their availability for tonight’s game, but they’ll still be without Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk for sure. We can start with two obvious fades for me in Hamidou Diallo and Saddiq Bey, they’re just outpriced at the moment so I don’t see myself getting to them even on a short slate. Cade Cunningham does look like a solid option however, he’s been solid as of late and we know the upside is there with him. Trey Lyles saw his minutes come down a bit last game but still produced nicely. We’ll need news on Isaiah Stewart before we can determine if Lyles is in play again here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on this team. The same can be said for the rest of this team, we’ll need to know who is all available before we can look at guys like Derrick Walton and Cassius Stanley again, but I would expect Killian Hayes to continue to get the start and could be useful as a tournament value. From the Grizzlies, we’ll need news on this team as well, as Desmond Bane and Kyle Anderson come in as doubtful, but De’Anthony Melton and Dillon Brooks come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. We do know that Ja Morant is going to look good again here, he has at least 48 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks like a great play again. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be more of a tournament guy for me as he loses that consistent production that we were seeing when Morant was off of the court, that being said this is a nice matchup for him. Steven Adams has been in good form as well as of late and looks like a nice mid-range play. Then we get to Mr. Brandon Clarke who has been in great form. He has at least 27 DraftKings points in three straight games and it’s due to the minutes he’s finally seeing. Our man Upperslad is giving away $250 in a FREE DraftKings contest tonight that VIP Members are eligible to join to the top three winning lineups that roster Clarke tonight, so come get signed up and take Upperslads money! All that said, on a short slate he’s going to look good here even if the minutes are volatile.
5-star play: Cade Cunningham, Ja Morant
4-star play: DET TBD, MEM TBD, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: TBD, Killian Hayes
GPP Sleeper: TBD, Brandon Clarke, Killian Hayes
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 213.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -2.5
Starting with the Warriors, it sounds like Steph Curry will end up missing this game as he’s “not optimistic” on playing tonight which will open up a bunch of minutes and usage on this team. Below is how the Warriors operate with Curry off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 32.3% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 27.7% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Gary Payton – 16.7% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
These would be the three main pieces that I would look at getting to as well as Draymond Green, but he won’t see much of a usage bump since he’s not a huge usage guy in the first place but could see his assist equity climb a little bit. I would expect Payton to get the start in Curry’s spot and has been a nice contributor on the season and looks good here. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram hasn’t been in the greatest of form, but on a short slate, he will likely make my player pool in this one in a good matchup. Jonas Valanciunas should do whatever he wants down low against an undersized Warriors frontcourt if he’s able to hang with their small-ball lineups. That being said, he did play 31 minutes in this matchup earlier in the season, so I’m not all that concerned about minutes here, as they’ve been up recently. Then Josh Hart and Devonte’ Graham are more of secondary options while Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a solid tournament value with huge upside, but very volatile.
5-star play: Jordan Poole, Gary Payton, Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Josh Hart, Devonte’ Graham, Brandon Ingram
Deeper Value: Gary Payton
GPP Sleeper: Kevon Looney, Nemanja Bjelica, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -10.0
Starting with the Clippers, they’ll continue to be without Paul George and Ivica Zubac again here. Reggie Jackson will return here and has a 28.9% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with George and Zubac off of the court this season and will look like a nice option even in a tougher matchup. I will continue to like Marcus Morris here with George and Zubac out he’s going to play a bunch of minutes and with the Suns going somewhat small should set up well for him here, I love this spot for him. Eric Bledsoe and Terance Mann will continue to be needed to play a bigger role as well but have been volatile, so more of GPP-type plays than anything but on a short slate, I won’t blame you for going there in cash if needed. Then we can round this team out with Serge Ibaka again, he’s not going to play a ton of minutes but is effective when he’s out there. From the Suns, they’ll be shorthanded in the frontcourt again here with Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Jae Crowder continuing to be out again here. I would expect a bunch of minutes from Jalen Smith again here and has looked great. He has a 20% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season and looks like a good option again here. He had his minutes come down last game due to getting in quick foul trouble, so I’m willing to overlook that. Devin Booker had a big game last time out and a guy I have no issue going right back to in this spot. While Chris Paul is more of your cash option, but a solid play nonetheless in a nice matchup. Then we can round this team out with Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges as secondary options, neither are priorities, but guys I would be good with landing on as a last piece in. One more guy that will look good here is Bismack Biyombo who just signed a season-long deal with the Suns and has been in good form as of late, he looks like a nice GPP value.
5-star play: Marcus Morris, Devin Booker
4-star play: Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, Terance Mann, Serge Ibaka, Jalen Smith, Chris Paul, Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo
GPP Sleeper: Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Bismack Biyombo, Eric Bledsoe, Terance Mann
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
NBA Lock of the Day: Jordan Poole (DK – $5.8k; FD – $5.7k)
I’m going to operate under the assumption that Steph Curry will miss this game tonight which opens up a bunch of usage and shots in the backcourt for the Warriors. With Curry off of the court this season he has a 32.3% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute and looks like a great option at this price tag. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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