Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 01/31:
Jan 28, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) reacts toward the crowd during the fourth quarter of the game against the LA Clippers at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 210.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -8.0
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Pelicans who are a bit of a mess. They come in with Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart all questionable, so most of the breakdown for them will come from the Breaking News Feed. That said, I may operate under the assumption that Valanciunas is back… he’s been out for a week now with an illness, so I like his chances of returning here, but that’s without knowing the severity of his illness. If either of Ingram or Hart is out we can go right back to the Nickeil Alexander-Walker well. He had a rough game last time out which will happen with him, but he has the ability to take over at all times. Devonte’ Graham would benefit as well, but his ankle injury is concerning considering he came into last game as a game-time decision and only played 28 minutes which is low for him. Then we can round this team out with Herbert Jones who is going to continue to play massive minutes and a nice mid-range option. From the Cavaliers, Darius Garland has been in great form as of late and gets a nice matchup here with the Pelicans. Then Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley get nice matchups as well, Valanciunas doesn’t scare me all that much down there. Kevin Love came crashing down to Earth last night after having back-to-back 40+ fantasy nights, he’ll continue to be a GPP only option. Outside of those four guys, it would really only be Rajon Rondo I would have interest in from this team. He looks like a nice tournament value… but on an eight-game slate, I would think we get better value than him.
5-star play: Pelicans TBD
4-star play: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Josh Hart, Devonte’ Graham, Herbert Jones, Pelicans TBD
Deeper Value: Rajon Rondo
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, Pelicans TBD
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -2.0
Starting with the Clippers, they haven’t been a team I’ve gotten to a whole lot due to how spread out their production can be. Reggie Jackson has been under 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games before a bounce-back game last time out. That said, this is an elite matchup and will be a guy I have an interest in here. Marcus Morris dropped 38 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and looks like a nice option as well. Luke Kennard has developed some consistency as well with at least 25 DraftKings points in five straight games and is a fine mid-range GPP option. Guys like Amir Coffee, Nicolas Batum, and Eric Bledsoe are fine GPP options as well but is tough to predict their big nights. Then Ivica Zubac is a solid mid-range center option if you fall in that range. The Pacers have given up at least 110 points in five straight games, this is a spot where I’ll be pretty heavy on the Clippers… well at least heavier than usual. From the Pacers, Goga Bitadze comes in as questionable, but other than him just the usual guys. Domantas Sabonis has returned from injury and looked great with at least 50 fantasy points in three straight games and is still under $10k on both sites. Caris LeVert is going to be hard to trust after being held under 30 fantasy points in three straight… the usage should be there with Malcolm Brogdon out but he hasn’t been able to take advantage. The same can be said for Chris Duarte but has struggled more with minutes with that ankle injury lingering. Lastly, Isaiah Jackson has produced well as of late and will be a nice option again if either Bitadze or Oshae Brissett needs to miss.
5-star play: Reggie Jackson, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Marcus Morris, Luke Kennard, Ivica Zubac, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Amir Coffee, Nicolas Batum, Eric Bledsoe, Caris LeVert, Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant came down to Earth a little bit last time out but has been in unreal form with at least 56 DraftKings points in five straight of his previous games. I have no issue going right back to him here, he has a 36.3% usage rate and 1.5 DraftKings points per minute over the past two weeks. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been pretty good as well but has struggled with fouls over his past couple of games. That said, I don’t have a problem going back to him here either. Desmond Bane has yet to eclipse the 30 point mark since returning from Covid, he’s a fine option here but I may just wait for him to prove it to me. Steven Adams had a massive game last time out and they’ll need his size against Joel Embiid in this one, he looks like a solid GPP guy. Then De’Anthony Melton has been in great form as well with at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been unreal as of late, averaging 64 DraftKings points per game in each of his last five games. He’s one of the better spend-up options on tonight’s slate. We know Tobias Harris is going to play around 35 minutes nightly and looks like a nice option in all formats in a great matchup. I’ll continue to take the security that Tyrese Maxey gives us. He’s going to play all the minutes he can in a great matchup with an average Grizzlies defense. Seth Curry returned last time out to play 32 minutes so I would operate under the assumption that he’s a full go yet again here which will take away my interest in Furkan Korkmaz.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, De’Anthony Melton, Steven Adams, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Steven Adams, Seth Curry
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 209.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
Starting with the Heat, Tyler Herro has returned to his normal role and feels like a nice option here as we’re used to seeing him in the mid-$7k range. That said, I will like him more if Kyle Lowry is forced to miss again, which appears to be the case. Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays and has been in incredible form as of late and coming off his best performance of the season last time out. I had a bunch of Bam Adebayo last time out and will be a guy I go right back to here against a bad rebounding Celtics team. Then, Herro being back will likely take minutes from Max Strus, but Gabe Vincent has continued to play solid minutes and is a fine mid-range option. From Boston, it’s hard to predict which of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are going to have the big night on a nightly basis, but both have massive ceilings as we saw with Tatum last time out. I don’t love the matchup against a good defense, but they’re solid GPP options at the very least. Robert Williams continues to see around 30 minutes pretty consistently and looks like a nice option in all formats. Dennis Schroder has moved to the bench and has been held under 20 fantasy points in three straight, he’s a pretty easy fade at this price tag. The same can be said for Al Horford, but I don’t have an issue with Marcus Smart as a secondary option to close out the Celtics.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Al Horford, Marcus Smart
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -2.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet returned last game and played a massive 54 minutes… it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward and looks like a nice option in a great matchup. Pascal Siakam continues to play heavy minutes and has at least 48 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. OG Anunoby is another guy that’s playing all the minutes he can handle and has produced very consistently over his last handful of games. Scottie Barnes appears to be finding his groove as well after being a bit more volatile than we’re used to seeing from him. I think I would just find the extra couple hundred dollars to get to Anunoby, but no issue if you land on Barnes. Then guys like Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr. look like solid GPP options, however, I’m probably close to a fade on Boucher with VanVleet back in the starting lineup. From the Hawks, Trae Young has been in good form as of late and a guy I don’t have an issue spending up for here, I just don’t love playing guard against the Raptors, they play slow enough to be annoying. John Collins is probably more of a GPP guy due to the volatility he brings but still someone I’m okay with against this frontcourt. I do like the price tag a good amount on Clint Capela, the only issue is the minutes have been pretty low as of late. If he can get those over 25, I feel pretty good about him hitting value at this price. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, and Kevin Huerter are solid secondary or tournament pieces if you happened to land on them.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Trae Young
4-star play: OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, John Collins, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter
Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -5.0
Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox comes in as he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again since it’s been 10+ days since we’ve seen him. Tyrese Haliburton finally had a bounce-back game last time out against the Sixers, I don’t love the matchup with a slow-paced Knicks team but still a guy I don’t have an issue with if Fox is to miss again. I’ve been all over Richaun Holmes since he’s returned from injury due to the price tag on him and the minutes have slowly increased by the game. He got up over 30 minutes last time out and a guy I’ll go right back to in this spot. Then the mid-range of this team would be more GPP-type guys than anything, but guys like Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, and Chimezie Metu are fine. Metu should see an increase in minutes with Marvin Bagley out which leads to a higher minutes floor for Holmes as well. From the Knicks, Julius Randle has not been in good form as of late but the matchup is hard to ignore, it’s not a comfortable play but still a guy I’m good with for this matchup. RJ Barrett has been in better form but can be a little volatile as well, but again the matchup is going to trump most concerns I have for guys on this Knicks team. I won’t talk you off of Evan Fournier but I’m generally lower on him when he comes off of big games because the public chases him and rarely does he follow it up with another nice game. Mitchell Robinson looks like a nice tournament option if you need a mid-range center option as well. Kemba Walker hasn’t been in good form so he will be strictly a tournament-only option for me. Then guys like Alec Burks and Cam Reddish will be fades for me until we see some consistent minutes from them.
5-star play: Richaun Holmes
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: Chimezie Metu
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, Chimezie Metu, Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: GSW -11.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry has been a bit more volatile than we’re used to as of late but gets an awesome matchup against the Rockets here. He’s a nice spend-up option on this slate, especially for tournaments. Andrew Wiggins followed up his nice game against the Wolves with another nice game last time out. I don’t hate riding out the heater he’s on right now. I was all over Klay Thompson last time out thinking he might get to 30 minutes, which he didn’t, but still had a productive game and when that 30-minute game comes, I want to be on him, so no issue going right back to him here as well. Then with Otto Porter Jr. out we could see Jonathan Kuminga slide back into the starting lineup and becomes an interesting value option. Kevon Looney looks nice against this Houston frontcourt as well. From Houston, Kevin Porter Jr. comes into this one as questionable so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a full go here and looks like a nice GPP option. Christian Wood has been okay in this spot in two games this season and a guy I don’t mind for tournaments due to the price tag. Jae’Sean Tate is never a sexy option, but a guy they could go to as a big in small-ball lineups that the Warriors like to run. Then guys like Jalen Green and Eric Gordon are fine for GPPs as well but will get a boost if Porter Jr. is forced to miss again.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Christian Wood
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Jae’Sean Tate, Jalen Green, Eric Gordon
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Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Por -4.0
Starting with the Blazers, Jusuf Nurkic had a rough game last time out but a guy I’ll go right back to against a weak Thunder frontcourt, he should be able to do whatever he wants here. I like going back to CJ McCollum as well, he’s so consistent and has a big ceiling with Damian Lillard continuing to be out in a great matchup. The same can be said for Anfernee Simons who has been in incredible form as well. Norman Powell will continue to play big minutes and looks like a solid mid-range guy, but not someone I’m looking to force in at this price tag. Then Robert Covington looks like a solid option again with Larry Nance and Nassir Little both out. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander today, below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Josh Giddey – 23.1% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Lu Dort – 26.9% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Tre Mann – 24% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Kenrich Williams – 18% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
For as much usage and production they’ll be missing with Gilgeous-Alexander out, there really isn’t a ton that I feel like I NEED to get to here. The Thunder are pretty good at spreading out that lost production, but I do think Josh Giddey is someone I’ll want here in a great matchup.
5-star play: Jusuf Nurkic, CJ McCollum, Josh Giddey
4-star play: Anfernee Simons, Norman Powell, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Tre Mann, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
GPP Sleeper: Robert Covington, Darius Bazley, Kenrich Williams
NBA Lock of the Day: Reggie Jackson (DK – $5.3k; FD – $6.0k)
I love this price tag on Jackson here. I’m generally not a guy that prioritizes these Clippers players, but this is an awesome matchup against a terrible Pacers defense. He had a nice bounce-back game last time out and has a 30.3% usage rate and just around 1.01 fantasy points per minute with Paul George off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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