Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 01/29:
Jan 27, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) celebrates after a basket against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -10.0
We’ll kick this slate off starting with the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis returned last time out and played 44 minutes on his way to a 70 point fantasy night. It’s safe to say he won’t be limited moving forward and looks like a nice option again here. We do know that Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner will continue to be out, but even then Caris LeVert has been extremely volatile. He was a 1.36 fantasy point per minute guy with these two off of the court last season, but at this price tag, he’s probably more of a GPP option again here considering his inconsistency. Chris Duarte has been pretty meh and has gotten a price bump, I think we can do better on this slate. Goga Bitadze got banged up last time out and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. We would likely see Oshae Brissett get more run if Bitadze isn’t able to go. Then a guy like Jeremy Lamb is a fine MME value, the minutes are volatile but can be pretty productive when he’s in there. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic looks like a really good option here in a great matchup with the Pacers. He dropped 54 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is a nice spend-up option on this slate. Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t been getting his normal run as of late but has been due to back-to-back blowouts, I have no problem going right back to him here. Jalen Brunson is a fine secondary option now that his price has come down a bit and the same can be said for Tim Hardaway Jr., but really it’s just Luka and Kristaps from the Mavs for me.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Caris LeVert, Goga Bitadze, Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: Oshae Brissett, Jeremy Lamb
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Jeremy Lamb, Chris Duarte, Tim Hardaway, Jalen Brunson
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Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 212.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.5
Starting with the Celtics, it’s hard to predict which of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are going to have the big night on a nightly basis, but both have massive ceilings and I like this spot for them. Robert Williams continues to see around 30 minutes pretty consistently and looks like a nice option in all formats on a shorter slate. Dennis Schroder has moved to the bench and has been held under 20 fantasy points in three straight, he’s a pretty easy fade at this price tag. The same can be said for Al Horford, but I don’t have an issue with Marcus Smart as a secondary option to close out the Celtics. From the Pelicans, both Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram missed last night’s game but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re a go tonight on the second half of a back-to-back. Ingram has floated around the 40 fantasy point mark pretty consistently and looks like a solid option here with upside. Assuming he’s a go, I like the spot a lot for Valanicunas. This Celtics team isn’t great on the boards and nearly dropped a 50 burger on them earlier this season. It wouldn’t shock me to see Devonte’ Graham miss this game as he left last night’s game with a knee injury. If that’s the case, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has at least 34 minutes in three straight games and would be a guy I like quite a bit here. We kind of know what we’re getting with Josh Hart at this point, he’s a consistent option and gives you nice upside in a nice price range. Then we can round this team out with Herbert Jones who has produced well as of late.
***Assuming Devonte’ Graham is OUT***
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Herbert Jones
Deeper Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Jose Alvarado
Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -10.5
Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox comes in as he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again since it’s been about 10 days since we’ve seen him. Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been in the best form over his past couple of games but has a 19.5% usage rate and around 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Fox off of the court this season. I’ve been all over Richaun Holmes since he’s returned from injury due to the price tag on him and the minutes have slowly increased by the game. They’ll need his size in this one and if he can stay out of foul trouble looks like a nice option. Then the mid-range of this team would be more GPP-type guys than anything, but guys like Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley are all in play. They’ll all see a nice boost with Terence Davis out again tonight. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been unreal as of late, averaging 67 DraftKings points per game in each of his last ten games and gets an elite matchup here. He’s one of the better spend-up options on tonight’s slate. We know Tobias Harris is going to play around 35 minutes nightly and looks like a nice option in all formats in a great matchup. I’ll continue to take the security that Tyrese Maxey gives us. He’s going to play all the minutes he can in a great matchup with a terrible Kings defense. Seth Curry comes into this one as questionable, if he’s forced to miss again we should see big minutes for Furkan Korkmaz and Matisse Thybulle.
***Assuming De’Aaron Fox is OUT***
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley, Furkan Korkmaz, Mattise Thybulle
Washington Wizards @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.0
Starting with the Wizards, it’s going to be tough for me to really love these guys now that they’re back to full strength, but in a game with a 230 implied total, I think we can find some guys to like. Bradley Beal is right around that $9k range on both sites and looks like a fine option in all formats but not someone that I’m forcing in by any means. The price tag has come down on Kyle Kuzma with Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura returning to the rotation but still feels a bit pricey for me. Speaking of Hachimura and Bryant, they look like fine value options if nothing else opens up on this slate. The tag on Spencer Dinwiddie has come down as well, but the production just hasn’t been there for me to like getting to him. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell is a fine GPP option as well, we know he’ll be in the 20-25 minute range and can produce nicely in that time. From the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane returned earlier in the week and seems to be back to a full go and looks like a solid option in this one while Dillon Brooks continues to be out again. We’ve seen Ja Morant take the next step with these two guys off of the court as of late and has at least 56 DraftKings points in five straight games and at least 60 fantasy points in four of his last five. I’m going to continue to ride out this heater with him. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been in good form as well and gets a nice matchup here, he looks good in all formats. De’Anthony Melton will be a guy I go back to as well as it looks like he’s taken the Brooks role in this offense for the time being. Then we can round this team out with Steven Adams if you need a mid-range center option, he’s not a sexy play by any means but a guy I wouldn’t actively avoid.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., De’Anthony Melton
Deeper Value: Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, Steven Adams
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 208.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet has missed their last few games and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for further updates regarding his status. Pascal Siakam continues to play heavy minutes and dropped a 50 burger on the Heat earlier this season, I have no issue going right back to him in this spot. OG Anunoby is another guy that’s playing all the minutes he can handle and has produced very consistently over his last handful of games. Scottie Barnes appears to be finding his groove as well after being a bit more volatile than we’re used to seeing from him. I think I would just find the extra couple hundred dollars to get to Anunoby, but no issue if you land on Barnes. Then guys like Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr. look like solid GPP options, I’ll be good with Trent Jr. regardless of VanVleet’s status but I’ll likely be off of Boucher if he returns. From the Heat, Tyler Herro has returned to his normal role and feels like a nice option here as we’re used to seeing him in the mid-$7k range. That said, I will like him more if Kyle Lowry is forced to miss again, he’s been out the last few games due to personal reasons. Jimmy Butler looks like a good option here as well with at least 50 fantasy points in two of his last three and dropped 50 on the Raptors earlier this season. I LOVE the price tag on Bam Adebayo particularly on DraftKings where he’s closer to $7k than $8k. He should be able to handle this Raptors frontcourt fairly easily. Then, Herro being back will likely take minutes from Max Strus and Gabe Vincent which will hurt their values a bit.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo (DraftKings)
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Bam Adebayo (FanDuel), Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr., Duncan Robinson
Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: GSW -8.0
Starting with the Nets, they’ll get Kyrie Irving back as it’s an away game, so James Harden will take a bit of hit from the production he saw most of the week. The price tag on Irving is tough to get to personally, but wouldn’t hate falling on him in tournaments. Harden has at least 70 fantasy points in two of his last three games and is a guy I have no issue getting to here. With Kevin Durant off of the court his season he has a 33.5% usage rate and 1.45 fantasy points per minute. However, that falls down to a 28% usage rate and 1.2 fantasy points per minute with Irving on the court. I would expect they stagger their minutes but just know they’ll play a fair amount together and eat into each other’s production. I’ll come off of Patty Mills a bit with Irving back as well, but he should still be around 30 minutes per game. I like going back to LaMarcus Aldridge here, the Warriors like to run small, but Aldridge fits well in that lineup assuming he can keep up with the pace. From the Warriors, Steph Curry has been a bit more volatile than we’re used to as of late but dropped 62 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. He’s a nice spend-up option on this slate, especially for tournaments. Andrew Wiggins had a big game last time out, but the ceiling consistency hasn’t been there with him for me to love him. I think there’s a chance we could see Klay Thompson around 30 minutes here and at this price tag is a guy that I’ll be overweight on the field. Then we can round the slate out with Otto Porter Jr. and Kevon Looney as fine secondary tournament options.
5-star play: James Harden, Steph Curry
4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patty Mills, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr., Kevon Looney
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NBA Lock of the Day: Klay Thompson (DK – $5.5k; FD – $6.2k)
I’m going to get a little whacky here, but hear me out. Thompson got his minutes up to 27 last time out, so I think there’s a chance we see him eclipse the 30-minute mark tonight. On the season, Thompson has a 31.4% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute and gets a great matchup against the Nets tonight. I do like the DraftKings price tag more, but think he’s playable on both sites. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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