Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 28, 2021; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzles forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) reacts after a basket during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Bradley Beal $8600
WAS @ DET
13 games are on tap for this Wednesday slate. The Hornets are a bit more expensive but should still draw ownership. Several teams are on a back-to-back today including the Nets, Mavericks, and Celtics. Those 3 are known to do some load managing. There could be a lot of value opening up as we get close to lock. Someone who has yet to have a ceiling game is Bradley Beal. His price is really falling now. Depending on where the value comes from, Beal could end up being low-owned since he is a guard. Spencer Dinwiddie is returning to the lineup today which will make people shy away from Beal. He put up 42.5DKpts last game with Dinwiddie out. This was on 12-19 shooting for 34 real pts. He just did not have the peripherals to support that scoring output. Today, he gets a nice matchup against the Pistons.
Detroit plays at about a league-average pace which is a pace-up spot for the Wizards. They have the 7th-worst defensive efficiency rating and are tied for the 3rd-worst rebounding rate this season. Though Beal is not going to gobble up the boards, this should allow Beal to support his scoring total adequately. On the year, Beal has a 31% usage rate averaging 1.07FPM. Last year, he had a 34% usage rate averaging 1.29FPM. The Wizards have Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope playing alongside Beal as opposed to Russell Westbrook. Harrell does eat up usage but he comes off the bench. Beal’s current rates are a significant dropoff from last season. He should start to trend up because this does not make much sense. Even with the Wizards playing slower, Beal is not producing anywhere close to what he did last season. This is a great spot to jump on him before the field gets there.
PG Kyle Lowry $7200
MIA vs MIL
With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo out last Friday, Lowry was 3% owned against the Pacers. Tyler Herro was 39% owned. Their prices are a bit cheaper today which should push Lowry into the double-digits of ownership. He should not be popular because if people were not rostering him against the Pacers, they should not be doing it today against a better defensive squad with more games on the slate. He will not be that low-owned but he should be 40-50% in these situations. Yes, there is blowout risk. Now if this game stays close, it is going to be because of Lowry and Herro. Duncan Robinson can get hot from 3 but all the assists are going to come from these 2 guards. Both of them can rebound well and should with Butler and Adebayo hurt. Playing both of them together is fine and probably is the right idea if the Bucks are at full strength.
With Butler and Adebayo off the floor, Lowry has a 21.7% usage rate averaging 1.03FPM. People will be drawn to Herro’s 31.5% usage rate and SG eligibility. He is definitely a great play as well but if he is going to be 13x the ownership of Lowry, that is just flat-out incorrect. Jrue Holiday is an elite defender but individual matchups especially in the regular season just are not something you should be factoring in. Lowry and Herro will have their mins staggered so Lowry is going to have the ball in his hands at all times. He is putting up 6x if the game is close with a huge ceiling. Though he is not the flashiest play, he is going to have to do everything today. The Heat are at home which only helps the game stay competitive.
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. $7000
MEM vs DAL
Everyone played JJJ the first few games after Ja Morant went down. Considering he has had 2 disappointing games in a row including 1 against this same Mavericks team, he should be low-owned today. With Morant off the court, JJJ has a 29.3% usage rate averaging 1.30FPM. That production is as good as it gets for a 7k player. Last season, he had a 33% usage rate with Morant off and Jonas Valaciunas was on the team. There is room for JJJ’s usage to be even higher than what it currently is. This Mavericks team will be on a back-to-back which only means that they could be sluggish. The Grizzlies have been playing very well after Morant went down. In that game against the Mavs, JJJ got into foul trouble. Otherwise, he probably plays about 32mins.
Brandon Clarke is out today. Steven Adams has put up some solid games recently. The Grizzlies have been in some friendly center matchups recently. The Thunder and Mavericks are bad against centers, while the Heat did not have Adebayo. The Grizzlies are playing the Mavericks again but in that previous game, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis were out. It was a much easier matchup for Adams to stay on the court. If Doncic plays today, Adams will not play that many minutes because he cannot switch out to the perimeter. JJJ can and is their best option to do so. With Clarke out, it could mean a few additional mins to JJJ as long as he stays out of foul trouble. He should close at center so he would be the one to take advantage of this juicy matchup for centers.
C Richaun Holmes $6300
SAC vs ORL
As of now, this is my favorite game on the slate. Both of these teams are not good but that should be great for fantasy purposes. The Magic side of the ball should draw more ownership than the Kings side because of the pricing and more predictable rotation. Mo Bamba at $6200 should be more popular than Holmes. With Jokic and Embiid in great spots at the top, center ownership for anyone else is going to be low. The Kings should have Harrison Barnes back tonight which would push either Terence Davis or Chimezie Metu back to the bench. If it is Metu, that gives Holmes a bump to his rebounding. Even if Metu starts, I still like Holmes. He has upside every single night. The Magic are a fantastic matchup for anyone. The concern is that the Magic get blown out and the opposing players do not get full minutes but that should not be the case today.
This game has a 219.5 total with the Kings favored by 6.5. Orlando is bottom-third in rebounding rate. They have the 4th-worst defensive efficiency rating. The Kings play at the 4th-fastest rate so most of their games will be a pace-down spot. Orlando plays at the 9th-fastest pace so this game should be a track meet. That means more scoring chances and rebounds for Holmes. With Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba on the other side, Holmes should play over 30mins tonight. His role has been a bit up and down even after the coaching change. This will pull down his ownership after that 15DKpt dud last game. The Magic allow the 4th-most DKpts to opposing centers and are the 5th-most blocked team. The ingredients are there for Holmes to have a monster night.
Just missed the cut: Rudy Gobert (if Hassan Whiteside out), De’Aaron Fox, Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, Dillon Brooks, Robert Williams (if Al Horford out), Montrezl Harrell, Daniel Gafford, Precious Achiuwa, Terrence Ross, Danny Green, Davion Mitchell
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
