Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 21, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) walks off the court after being ejected from the game during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SF LeBron James $9900
LAL vs BOS
It is a rare, small 3 game slate for a Tuesday night. On shorter slates, DraftKings prices the studs a little bit cheaper. They have done exactly that today with nobody above 11k. The Nets and Lakers stars usually are 1k more expensive. Though this might be a discount, it all depends on the value that is available. The Spurs have a 5 game week and are on a back-to-back. They could certainly do some load managing today. There are a few players in the 3k range already to fit multiple studs. LeBron at under 10k just seems wrong even with all 3 stars healthy. He now has PG and SF eligibility making it easier to get into lineups. With many other studs on this slate, he should not be popular. For fantasy purposes, he just is not someone people like to roster unless the Lakers have injuries.
This will be an easier matchup for the Lakers if Jaylen Brown misses this game. I am not worried about a blowout either way because the Lakers have not been good to start the season. It is LeBron so he is matchup-proof. He does not produce at the same rate as some of the other studs such as Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, and James Harden. However, he also is not priced as high. On the year, LeBron has a team-high 30.8% usage rate averaging 1.25FPM. If you are looking for narratives, LeBron has had some memorable games against the Celtics throughout his career. Enes Freedom is on the other side tonight. With Al Horford playing in this one, Freedom should not get much playing time but LeBron will probably want to target him. James is too good of a player to be under 10k.
PG/SG Derrick Rose $5100
NYK @ SAS
The Knicks are expected to make a lineup change today. I typically avoid the teams who have injuries or any news that is up in the air. It is a 3 game slate though so I would not have many players to write about then. Whether Rose starts or not, Tom Thibodeau loves him. He should get plenty of minutes even if he comes off the bench. We have seen him check in to the game midway through the 1st and 3rd quarters and play the rest of those halves. We will need to keep an eye on the new lineup. If Rose starts, then he will be chalk. I do not expect that to happen though because Alec Burks was named the starting PG not too long ago. Rose is not in the 4k anymore, but he certainly is not overpriced.
The Spurs are a little bit above league average on defense. This should be a fine matchup for the Knicks as they play at a bottom-third pace. The Spurs are playing at the 6th-fastest pace this year. With this being a back-to-back for San Antonio, their defense could be lacking. If they decide to rest anyone, possibly one of their guards, this will be a weaker defense. Those days of MVP Rose are long gone. Still, he is a talented player that produces well when he is healthy. If he plays over 30mins, he is going to put up a huge score. He averages 24.5DKpts this season. Looking at his games in which he exceeds 30mins, he pretty much puts up over 30DKpts every time. If he does not start, he is going to be a sneaky option today.
C Mitchell Robinson $4100
NYK @ SAS
Yes, another Knick. Robinson has been playing fine so I do not think he will get banished from the starting five. If he is benched, he should still get mins but I would not want to roster him. The Knicks centers are all healthy now. Julius Randle is another option that Thibs can go to for a small-ball lineup. If Robinson starts, I will have interest at this price tag. He is never a popular pick. Even when the Knicks were dealing with injuries, Robinson just was not on anyone’s radar. As the starting center, he has the potential to reach 30mins. He played 30mins 2 games ago against the Bulls. He played 22 last game due to a blowout. With the Spurs using traditional centers in Jakob Poeltl and Drew Eubanks, Robinson matches well against them.
The Spurs are near league average against centers. They give up the 11th-most DKpts to opposing centers. San Antonio is the 8th-most blocked team in the NBA. They are bottom-third in rebounding rate. Robinson himself is a traditional center as well. He needs to rebound, block shots, and finish around the rim. Since he is not going to create his own shot, he is not a true double-double threat. However, that is not out of the question. At $4100, he has a safe floor as a center. He has legitimate 8x potential. Jakob Poeltl and LaMarcus Aldridge should pick up the bulk of the center ownership. I prefer Poeltl but the price and ownership differences are both substantial.
SG/SF Bruce Brown $3500
BKN @ DAL
Brown is no longer starting for the Nets. Even with Joe Harris out, the Nets are using DeAndre’ Bembry. This does not mean that Brown cannot see a good amount of mins. Last game, Brown closed over Bembry. They somewhat split 48mins as both of them are defensive players who do not do much else. Brown is a strong rebounder though and that gives him some upside. The Mavericks struggle against centers because they have the 4th-worst rebounding rate in the league. Those rebounding struggles could help Brown rack up the boards as the Nets do not have an elite rebounder. Aldridge is starting but he has never been known as a rebounding machine.
Brown probably will not play 30mins. He is probably more likely to play 5mins and get benched. There is risk as Steve Nash will randomly run an eight-man rotation one game, then a ten-man the next. Brown has 30DKpt upside. Since he comes off the bench now, he should be under 5% owned. With not a lot of value plays down here in this range, Brown carries tournament-winning upside. With Joe Harris off the floor, Brown produces at 0.84FPM. He has a 14% usage rate but that is expected when anyone plays alongside Harden and Durant. It is a matter of whether Brown gets the mins. I like his chances as they need someone to guard Doncic.
Just missed the cut: Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroder (if Jaylen Brown out), RJ Barrett (if starting), Evan Fournier (if starting), Doug McDermott, Josh Richardson, Lonnie Walker IV
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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