Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
PG Luka Doncic $11500
DAL vs MEM
Today’s 6 game slate should be wild. There are several teams on a back-to-back. These include a lot of veterans and teams who are notorious for load managing. With Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo out, the Heat vs Bucks game is going to be chalky. This leads to a more balanced build with so many great options in the 7k range. Kyle Lowry and Jrue Holiday are both PG eligible. Dennis Smith Jr. should be a popular value play with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons out. Doncic no longer has SF eligibility. There are only so many guard spots available in 1 lineup. Doncic will be low-owned because there are simply not enough PG spots. Whether or not Kristaps Porzingis misses this game, I will have interest in Doncic.
People believe that Doncic becomes a better play with Porzingis out. This season, Doncic sees a slight bump in his usage and fantasy production. With data for only a month and a half of basketball, we should look at the rates from the previous 2 seasons. Across 1720mins, Doncic has a 37.3% usage rate averaging 1.53FPM with Porzingis out. That is a +1.2% usage and +0FPM boost. Though Doncic gets more usage, he produces at the same exact rate. Doncic should be low-owned because of the other PG options. However, it would be nice to roster Doncic with Porzingis in because he could be under 10% today. Even though this is a back-to-back for the Mavs, they do not have to travel. Doncic shot 0/6 from 3 with 7 turnovers on Friday. He should be much better tonight.
SG/SF Pat Connaughton $4900
MIL vs MIA
Holiday, Middleton, and Portis are going to get all the love. With better point-per-dollar plays, Connaughton should be under 10% owned. Grayson Allen at $4500 should pick up some ownership since he will get more shots. His production is the exact same as Connaughton at 0.81FPM. Since he is $400 cheaper, it makes sense to go Allen. However, factoring in position, Connaughton is a more useful piece with SF eligibility. Besides Middleton, SF is a wasteland. Taking Giannis off the floor this season, Allen receives a 1.8% usage boost and Connaughton receives a 0.9% boost. Allen actually sees a drop in his production by 0.03FPM but I will attribute that to the fact that this is a small 194min sample size. Connaughton’s production does not change.
Besides Middleton, who I probably will be locking in close to 100% of my lineups, SF is brutal today. Paul George is hopeful to play. If the Clippers pull some shenanigans, Terance Mann could be a value at $4800 but without that news, Connaughton seems viable. In the event George is out, I would prefer Mann. The Clippers play late so we might not get that news before lock. Even with Lillard and Simons out, Norman Powell is shot dependent in a tough matchup against the Celtics who probably get Jaylen Brown back. Connaughton’s price is unappealing, but he seems like a last guy in play if you want to fade Middleton and roster other Bucks.
C Steven Adams $4200
MEM @ DAL
Yep, here he is again. I will start out by saying I do not love his outlook today. Doncic will cook any center and Adams looks like a prime candidate to receive that treatment. This seems like a Jaren Jackson Jr. at the 5 spot. However, with Kyle Anderson already ruled out and Brandon Clarke questionable, Adams could pick up just a little bit more playing time. I would be more bullish if Clarke is out too. It is tough to see the Grizzlies turn to Killian Tillie and Xavier Tillman. Memphis probably will close today with Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, and JJJ barring a blowout. In the minutes that Adams is on the court, he should be very productive.
The Mavericks allow the 3rd-most DKpts to opposing centers. They allow the 2nd-most pts to centers. Now scoring is not Adams’ forte but Tyus Jones is a very good facilitator that should be able to find Adams in the pick and roll. Dallas has the 5th-worst rebounding rate in the league. This includes them allowing the 4th-most rebounds to opposing centers. For a center, Adams contributes nicely in the assists category. Most of these come from handoffs and easy passes. The Mavs allow the 5th-most assists to centers. All of this points towards Adams being productive when he is on the court. Even with the minutes in question, Dewayne Dedmon is going to be chalk at $3700. I favor him but his mins also are unsafe. It would not be surprising to see Adams turn out better than Dedmon at much lower ownership.
PG Davion Mitchell $3400
SAC vs LAC
This is another pivot off of the chalk. Dennis Smith Jr. should be the most popular value play alongside Dedmon today. It makes sense but there is a reason why DSJ keeps changing teams and is the 3rd string PG for the Blazers. He has shown some talent in the past but it should not surprise anyone if this chalk does not turn out well. The Celtics have the 5th-best defensive efficiency rating and could have Jaylen Brown back today. DSJ will now share court time with CJ McCollum, Powell, and Nurkic which lowers his usage. It would not surprise me if DSJ does not close and the Blazers let CJ run point. At the exact same price, Mitchell makes for an elite pivot play.
Taking Lillard and Simons off the floor, DSJ has a 23% usage rate averaging 0.92FPM. DSJ plays in the blowout unit so his usage rate is inflated. I would expect a number closer to 20% or in the high teens playing with the starting group. Mitchell with Harrison Barnes off the court has a 21.2% usage rate averaging 0.91FPM. Even though Mitchell comes off the bench, he has logged over 30mins in multiple games. He could absolutely play more mins than DSJ. Mitchell also does get blowout run. With the Clippers on a back-to-back, their defense could be weaker. These 2 players are identical but the ownership will not reflect that. This is one of my favorite pivots if you have a chalky lineup. Do not force it as guard is stacked and opportunity cost could come into play here.
Just missed the cut: Kevin Durant, CJ McCollum, Luke Kennard, Duncan Robinson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Terence Davis, Derrick Jones Jr.
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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