NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 12/30/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “NEWYEAR” for 50% off your 1st month or week of a VIP membership!

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Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

C Joel Embiid $11000

PHI @ BKN

It seems like every slate these days is filled with value. There are only 4 games today with 3 tipping off right at lock. Center has been a source of value for weeks. On DK, usually, you roster 2 value centers or 1 with Nikola Jokic. Jokic is on today’s slate. Daniel Gafford saw 36 minutes last game with Montrezl Harrell out. The Cavaliers have Evan Mobley back but still should be without Jarrett Allen. Regardless if Bradley Beal plays or not, Gafford looks like a standout play at 5k. Jokic always garners significantly more ownership than Embiid. Though I prefer Jokic, Embiid’s chances of landing in the optimal lineup is a lot higher today than in previous slates. Ben Simmons is not coming back to this team anytime soon. Embiid leads the 76ers with a 34.5% usage rate averaging 1.49FPM. The Nets used to be a team to target with centers but this is a totally different roster. Embiid is no ordinary center and has monster upside anytime he takes the floor.

Brooklyn should be getting back a lot of their players today. Among those include Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is an additional body to throw at Embiid but Embiid is capable of winning any matchup. Durant increases the likelihood of a blowout with this game being played at the Barclays Center. If that is a concern, then the same can be said about Nikola Jokic playing at home against the Warriors without Draymond Green. It took a late comeback from Golden State on Tuesday, otherwise, that was not a close game at all. It seems like forever since we last saw Embiid in the winning lineup. This is a great spot to take advantage of reduced ownership. Embiid tends to step it up in these types of games. With the stars on the other side, Embiid will need to put up a strong performance for the 76ers to have a chance.

 

PG Tyrese Maxey $5600

PHI @ BKN

If you cannot get to Embiid, Maxey should be low-owned because of his last game. He somehow put up 9DKpts in 36mins against a depleted Raptors team. Maxey carried the 76ers when they were forced to play with 8-9 players earlier this season. With Embiid, Harris, and the others back, Maxey does not have to do as much. For fantasy purposes, he is not as appealing of a play. That does not mean he has been bad. Throwing that last game out, Maxey has still played great. The starting point guard job is his. Shake Milton could return for this game but he is not the same type of bench threat that could eat into a starter’s mins like Immanuel Quickley and Alec Burks do to Kemba Walker. Milton has been out for two weeks so he could face some type of mins restriction. If he were to play well, he could play alongside Maxey. Maxey should be safe for his 33+mins.

As expected he is 3rd in usage on this team behind Embiid and Harris. He has a 21.6% usage rate averaging 0.87FPM. Maxey’s price has been inflated for a while. It never came down to adjust for the fact that the 76ers were healthy. All of a sudden, Maxey dropped $800. The Nets do have some good defenders in Bruce Brown and DeAndre’ Bembry. It is unclear how Steve Nash will split the minutes with multiple players returning today. Whatever happens, the Nets do allow the 7th-most DKpts to opposing PGs this season. Maxey is 9th in the league at pick and roll frequency at 44.3%. With Joel Embiid setting the screens, Brooklyn could be more focused on stopping Embiid allowing Maxey to take advantage. Spencer Dinwiddie should lead the PG ownership if Bradley Beal is out. RJ Hampton looks like a solid value. With Ricky Rubio out, Kevin Pangos could pick up the start. Maxey should be under 20% today.

 

SG/SF Isaac Okoro $4400

CLE @ WAS

Speaking of Pangos, Okoro could be the better play. Ricky Rubio, unfortunately, tore his ACL. With no Collin Sexton and Darius Garland as well, this leaves Pangos as the only ball-handler on the Cavaliers. His Euroleague and NBA stats do not look appealing. Maybe he gets there based on minutes but Okoro has a lot more talent for just a little bit more salary. There is virtually no data on how the Cavaliers play under the current players they have available today. Okoro himself is not a high-usage player nor a productive fantasy player. However, both of these rates should increase today with all the injuries the Cavs are dealing with. With a lack of ball-handlers, Okoro could pick up a few additional assists. Clevland is so depleted in the backcourt that he probably has to play 35+mins. He got to 31mins in his first game back.

If Pangos starts, that helps Okoro since he is a low usage player. Lauri Markkanen and Evan Mobley should lead the team in usage. Kevin Love will lead the bench unit and likely close the game. Okoro should pick up a few additional shots based on the lineups he will be in. This matchup against the Wizards is not the best. Washington has been solid defensively and plays slow this season. However, they will not be at full strength. With only 4 games on tap, we cannot simply avoid the bad matchups. Every game is in play on slates like this. The starting lineup will be crucial. Okoro will be in it but whoever starts for Rubio will impact how we handle this Cavs team.

 

PG/SG Bones Hyland $3300

DEN vs GSW

The only game that does not start at lock is this one. Monte Morris is currently questionable. He missed the last game against this same Warriors team. Facundo Campazzo started for Morris but Hyland played 24mins. Campazzo will be higher owned than Hyland because of his starting role. It is risky to roster these Nuggets guards because we might not have the news by lock. Since this is the only game, we might be stuck with leaving over 1k in salary on the table. You could build with Monte Morris because it is easier to swap down than it is up. Of course, you would be leaving salary though. In addition to Morris, Aaron Gordon, Vlatko Cancar, and Austin Rivers are also questionable. There are a lot of mins available in the event that all of these players are out. Even if just two of them are out, Hyland is going to benefit a lot.

Hyland has a 24.9% usage rate averaging 0.91FPM. This is an insane usage rate for a $3300 player. If Morris were to be ruled out before lock, I would want a lot of Hyland. Since he is so cheap, I think it is fine to play him with Campazzo. They do share the court together and both of them play those minutes when Jokic is getting his rest. Depending on who is in and who is playing well, Hyland could close this game. He did not last game and still saw 24mins. There is a path to 30mins if he plays well. He has been shooting poorly but that could be attributed to his ankle injury. He pretty much runs the 2nd unit. There is also a chance that he gets blowout run if that scenario happens. Hyland has 10x upside tonight and is going to be too low-owned if Morris is still questionable by lock. I prefer him over Pangos straight up.

 

Just missed the cut: Kevin Love, Monte Morris (questionable), Deni Avdija (if Bradley Beal out), Andre Iguodala, Davon Reed, Tim Frazier

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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