Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
C Joel Embiid $10500
PHI @ ATL
Today’s 9 game slate already has a lot of value available. At the center position, Deandre Ayton is underpriced for this rematch against the Warriors. Dwight Howard is starting at $3600. Bam Adebayo is out for weeks putting Dewayne Dedmon in play again at $4800. Mo Bamba is $6400 against the Rockets. Since all of these players are only center eligible, you can only pick 2. That could make Embiid a very low-owned play today. This will be Embiid’s 4th game back. Though he said the long layoff was tough, he played 45mins in his first game back. With Ben Simmons out of sight, he is going to continue to see bumps in his production compared to last season. The Hawks have a talented frontcourt duo but that should not make you shy away from rostering Embiid today.
With how shorthanded the Hawks are on the wing, they should run John Collins and Clint Capela alongside each other more often. Even if they were completely healthy, Atlanta probably would do it anyway against Embiid. These two teams played a 7 game series last season. Embiid averaged 30pts, 13rebs, 4asts, 2blks, 1stl in that series. He probably will not play 37mins today but this man is unguardable. Yes, Capela could fare better than other big men trying to guard Embiid. Still, he is not going to be able to stop him. Embiid has a 33.4% usage rate averaging 1.43FPM. These are true fantasy stud numbers. With Karl-Anthony Towns potentially out, there could be some opportunity cost by paying down for a value center with values at other positions as well.
PF/C Wendell Carter Jr. $6500
ORL @ HOU
Mo Bamba at $6400 should be popular today. If he is not, go with him. Carter is an easy pivot off of Bamba. He is his teammate and $100 more expensive. Furthermore, he has PF eligibility allowing you to roster 2 true centers. Many might think Bamba is the more productive fantasy player but it has actually been Carter this season. With Jalen Suggs off the floor, Bamba has a 17.3% usage rate averaging 1.01FPM. Carter has an 18.5% usage rate averaging 1.12FPM. Carter put up two 40+DKpt performances recently. These games were with Bamba hurt/out and Cole Anthony out. It is not as good of a situation for the Magic players since their best player, Anthony, is now back. However, there is still a lot to like about WCJ today.
Suggs has a 26.7% usage rate averaging 0.87FPM. Even though Anthony is back, you have to factor in what Suggs being out means to this team. Gary Harris will start in place of Suggs. Harris has a 15.1% usage rate averaging 0.54FPM. He is a 3&D player who is very unproductive for fantasy purposes. Carter receives a boost with Suggs out. The Magic are playing against the Rockets. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league. Though they have won a few games recently, Kevin Porter Jr. is listed as questionable but it was reported that he could miss some time. Nevertheless, this Rockets team is bad. They play at the 4th-fastest pace in the league while ranked 18th in defensive efficiency. Houston allows the 4th-most DKpts to opposing PFs. If Bamba gets into foul trouble, WCJ would be set up even better.
SG/SF Eric Gordon $4900
HOU vs ORL
Even though KPJ is listed as questionable, he probably misses this game. He has had thigh issues in the past and it should be best to rest him. Armoni Brooks has been getting minutes and has been productive in place of KPJ. At $3400, he should be a popular value play. There is Cam Johnson value again today along with the Heat. Gordon used to be a popular play only when Russell Westbrook or James Harden was out back in the day. He is a shot-dependent player but has been less so recently. It is hard to imagine how this would be true since he has been in the league for so many years. He has tallied a couple of 5 assist games and 6 and 7 assist games as well. Maybe this is due to the lack of talent on this Houston team.
In a 125min sample size with KPJ and Jalen Green off the court this season, Gordon has a 28.6% usage rate averaging 0.95FPM. That is a +8.5% and +0.20FPM boost. These rates seem a bit inflated but they should not be too much different. This Rockets team does not have a lot of talent besides Christian Wood and Jae’Sean Tate. Gordon’s mins will be staggered with him coming off the bench. If KPJ is out, Gordon’s outlook is a lot better with the potential for increased assists. He did average over 4 per game earlier in his career. This gives him a better floor and ceiling if he is able to shoot well. That too looks appealing here in a matchup against the Magic.
PG Devonte’ Graham $4700
NOP @ DAL
Graham is too cheap for someone with his kind of upside. Zion Williamson is nowhere to be seen. Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas will continue to lead this team. Now looking at where Graham was earlier on in the year, he is a lot cheaper now. He has dealt with injuries and blowouts so his mins have not been the best. Last game with Josh Hart out, he was on pace to play over 30mins. If Hart is out again today and this game stays close, this is an attractive price point for Graham. Now that is a big if as the Pelicans have not played well this season. This game has a 7.5 spread in favor of the Mavericks at a 218 total. Both of these teams play slow so that might be too high of a total but Vegas is sharp.
Hart being out is the key here. The Pelicans will start Garrett Temple but the other guards are going to be forced to fill up the mins. Nickeil Alexander-Walker should play more SG which would allow Graham to pick up more time at PG. With Hart off the court this year, Graham has a 23% usage rate averaging 0.96FPM. That is a +1.6% and +0.08FPM boost. The Mavericks defense is not bad. They do not struggle against opposing PGs. However, Graham relies on his 3pt shot. If he has his shot going, that is how the ceiling game will come. Dallas allows the 5th-highest opponent 3pt% this season. Combine that with increased mins in a competitive game, Graham makes for a sub-5% play.
Just missed the cut: Stephen Curry, Tobias Harris, Myles Turner, Dorian Finney-Smith (if Porzingis out), Jae Crowder, Isaac Okoro, Caleb Martin, Terrence Ross
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
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