Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
SG/SF Khris Middleton $7200
MIL @ TOR
This is a 5 game slate with many notable injuries. No Damian Lillard will make the Blazers popular options once again even with the price bumps. Devin Booker will be out so there should be more attention on Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Cam Johnson. Even though the value is not as cheap as previous slates, it is easily doable to fit in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is the only player on today’s slate priced above 10k. This is going to drive up his ownership especially on a small slate where raw points become more important. It generally is more important to pay up for the studs on small slates. However, the midrange is pretty stacked today. If Giannis were to score 60DKpts, that might not be optimal.
It would not be surprising to see McCollum, CP3, SGA, and Ayton put up 50DKpts and neutralize Giannis’s score. The Raptors have defended Giannis well in the past. Now, this is a completely different matchup. OG Anunoby is out. Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka were on the Raptors championship team a few seasons ago when they took down the Bucks. Pascal Siakam should take on this assignment as well as Precious Achiuwa. Fred VanVleet should guard Jrue Holiday. This could open things up for Middleton. If he sees Scottie Barnes, he is not a pushover. However, this is the defending champs. They are going to score. Middleton has a 26.4% usage rate averaging 1.10FPM. He has not had a huge game yet, but he should be back into shape after his extended absence. His price and ownership make him an intriguing play today.
PF Darius Bazley $4500
OKC @ MEM
Bazley has continued to disappoint but that also has caused his price to continue to drop. Josh Giddey, Kenrich Williams, Derrick Favors, and Mike Muscala have been ruled out for this game. Bazley was questionable with an elbow injury but ended up playing. He should be good for this game then. Even though the data says Bazley does not benefit with Giddey out, that is a small sample size. Giddey does everything so there are many ways in which Bazley can step up in. Giddey rebounds and dishes out assists. Tre Mann got the start on Wednesday and he does not do those things anywhere near as well. With no Favors and Muscala, Bazley should see more rebounding chances.
Bazley is not going to rack up assists. However, he will put up shots. There will be more of those available with Giddey out. Bazley has struggled with his shot this season. It is not great to see someone who is missing so many shots and then popping up on the injury report with elbow soreness. Since he was healthy enough to play on Wednesday, it should not be a major issue. The games today are relatively close in game totals. This one is at 215 with the Grizzlies favored by 9.5. Memphis allows the 6th-most DKpts to opposing PFs. Since Bazley has been downright bad, nobody wants to roster him. We have seen the upside he has. It is well worth a shot on a small slate today.
C Steven Adams $4300
MEM vs OKC
Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic, and Jakob Poeltl should be the highest-owned centers today. That leaves Adams as a pivot. He is in a completely different price range but has a chance to return better value than those 3 centers. I do not think this is the best matchup for him. Even though the Thunder cannot stop big men, the Grizzlies can stop Adams themselves. Since Favors and Muscala are out, the Grizzlies can go small. The Thunder are going to use Jeremiah-Robinson Earl and Isaiah Roby at center. Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. can play center just fine in this spot. When Adams is out there, he should be very productive. The playing time is a big concern.
The Thunder allow the 5th-most DKpts to opposing centers including the 3rd-most rebounds and most blocks. Adams should start out hot but do not get too excited. He could easily be run off the court later in the game. Then there is the blowout concern. If Kyle Anderson is out, I would feel a little bit better about Adams because then someone has to fill more PF mins. If it is JJJ then Adams could benefit with more mins because he only plays center. Adams is averaging 0.95FPM this season and 1.15FPM with Ja Morant off the court. At this price, Adams should be able to return 5x even if he gets limited mins. I will take some chances that Adams somehow gets more minutes even though I do not think it is likely because there is a clear path for upside.
SG/SF Landry Shamet $3100
PHX vs DET
Cam Johnson started the 2nd half after Devin Booker went down with a hamstring injury. At $4200, he should be a popular value play. Shamet actually closed that game ahead of Johnson. Johnson has a 18% usage rate averaging 0.84FPM. Shamet has a 17.8% usage rate averaging 0.82FPM. Shamet is $1100 cheaper than Johnson. However, Johnson should start and play more mins. With the rates so close, Shamet is going to be incorrectly owned compared to Johnson. Shamet should end up at a fraction of what Johnson is at. Even without Booker, the Suns are favored by 13 against the Pistons. Shamet has gotten blowout run in multiple games. Johnson does not get those mins. This is another way in which Shamet could end up being the better play.
Both of these players are pretty shot-dependent. Though I would feel more comfortable with Johnson, I would be willing to go down to Shamet if that $1100 is important to that lineup. Tre Mann and Dennis Smith Jr. could both pick up some significant ownership as values. If Nick Nurse does something weird like starting Yuta Watanabe, that is another under 4k player. Since Mann likely starts for Giddey, he should be chalky even after yesterday’s performance. Down near the bare minimum price, Shamet is the only player right now that is intriguing. Guard is very stacked again today while SF is weak. Be sure to place SF-eligible players in that slot as opposed to SG. Since SF is weak, saving salary might be the move.
Just missed the cut: Dejounte Murray, Julius Randle, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Saddiq Bey, Jae Crowder, Yuta Watanabe
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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