Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Dec 3, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole (3) reacts after making a three point shot against the Phoenix Suns in the third quarter at the Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
C Clint Capela $7800
ATL vs HOU
We have a solid 9 game slate for this Monday. Just like every slate, there are some teams on back-to-backs. We always have to monitor the player statuses from those teams particularly close. There are already several studs out. The Mavericks should once again, provide some value with Luka Doncic out. Deandre Ayton and Will Barton are both listed as questionable with illnesses. Both of these injuries affect the center position. JaVale McGee would become one of the best value plays of the slate at $4000. If there is no Barton again, Nikola Jokic will get even more ownership than he usually does at $12000. Capela at $7800 becomes a great pivot as he is right in the middle of those prices. His minutes are a lot more appealing now than they have been in the past.
This game has the highest total of the slate at 226 with the Hawks favored by 11. That is concerning but at least Capela is on the favored team. The Rockets will have Eric Gordon back and have been playing very well recently. It would not be surprising if this game stays competitive until the end. Even if it blows out, Capela’s rotations will not be too affected. In certain matchups, Capela did not close. He would start the 4th quarter but check out midway. If this game were to blowout, the minutes would be relatively the same in that case. Since the Hawks are dealing with a plethora of injuries, Capela has been closing games. Normally I would think Collins closes at center but the Hawks were willing to close with a small Nets team last game. He is a 1.13FPM player in a terrific spot with the potential for more mins due to injuries.
PG/SG Jordan Poole $5900
GSW @ IND
Everyone in this world knows Stephen Curry is close to breaking Ray Allen’s 3pt record. He is 7 away from making history. That is definitely doable for him. Since this is on everyone’s mind, teams could pay even closer attention to him. This would open up more opportunities for Poole. Early in the season, Poole was capped at around 30mins. He reached 37mins last game. Poole has a 25.5% usage rate averaging 1FPM. He likely will not play 37mins again but 35 is probably a good estimate. That would put him at a 6x projection. With this game taking place in Indiana, it only has a 3pt spread. This allows Poole to get his full mins. His playing time is staggered with Curry so he would be the go-to option during certain stretches.
With Doncic out, Jalen Brunson is going to be chalk again at $5800. There is a possibility that Kristaps Porzingis rests on the second end of a back-to-back. If he does, Brunson might be 70%+ owned. Poole has the same PG/SG eligibility as Brunson for $100 more. Poole’s ownership will drop because Brunson exists. You do not have to fade Brunson. You can play them together. This is a tremendous leverage spot if Poole outscores Brunson. Brunson is the better play. That does not mean it is for certain though. Chalk does fail and if this is the spot, this could be a tournament-winning move. The Pacers are about league average at defending the 3. Poole has been relatively consistent this year with 40+DKpt upside.
SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr $5400
DAL vs CHA
THJ is another possible pivot off of the chalky Brunson. Again, you can play them together. Hardaway has a 27.8% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM this season with Luka Doncic out. Surprisingly, Brunson has a 25.8% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM. THJ is a shooter while Brunson contributes in multiple categories. Somehow, they both produce at the same rate. Brunson should play more mins so he is the better play. THJ only played 23mins on Sunday and shot 2-9. He was 14% on a 6 game slate. He should be lower today due to his poor performance. The Mavericks are in a terrific spot against the Hornets. They will be getting Terry Rozier back but he is not going to improve this team’s defense. This game is in Dallas with a 219 total and the Mavs favored by 4.
THJ needs to shoot well to put up a good fantasy game. The Hornets are about bottom-third in opponent 3pt %. He gets a +6.6% usage rate bump and produces +0.26 more FPM with Doncic off the floor this season. There are more shots available for everyone but particularly for THJ. If he shoots well, he is going to get additional mins. He can easily player over 30mins in this game. He continues to come off the bench which suppresses his ownership. $5400 is a fair price tag for him with Doncic out. We will likely get better pt/$ plays by lock but remember THJ as someone who has 40+DKpt upside. Hornets games produce fantasy-winning results. THJ is a way to get exposure to this game while not being chalky.
SF/PF Harrison Barnes $5100
SAC @ TOR
Barnes looked like a lock 2 games ago. He then played 26mins against the Hornets and did not close. Last game against the Cavs, he played 25mins. Looking at his rotations though, he was on pace to play 32+mins. The Kings were getting blown out so the starters checked out midway through the 3rd quarter. Barnes played 17 1st half mins. As he gets back into full health, he is going to have a great game at this price sooner rather than later. Kings games are also an appealing fantasy target. This game has a 220 total with the Raptors favored by 4.5. OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Khem Birch continue to be out which weakens this Toronto defense. Nearly every Kings game will be a pace-down spot so I am not worried about that. Barnes is going to play over 30mins at some point. He would have last game if the starting unit had played better.
As long as the Kings are in this game, Barnes could see the monster mins that he received a few weeks ago. When he does, he will blow this price out of the water. The Raptors could close small which would allow the Kings to put Barnes at PF, boosting his rebounds. I am not expecting him to get zero ownership. However, he is going to be lower=owned than he should be because he has failed multiple times at similar prices recently. This is a better matchup than the Cavs. Given Barnes’ role, he is too cheap. Do not let the past couple of games discourage you from rostering him. The Kings love playing Barnes and Alvin Gentry should continue to do so with that continuing coaching staff.
Just missed the cut: Trae Young, Pascal Siakam, Bradley Beal, Tobias Harris, Marcus Smart, Facundo Campazzo, JT Thor, Bones Hyland, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cam Reddish, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jalen Smith (if Deandre Ayton out), Brandon Boston Jr.
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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