Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 24, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) reacts during the game against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
C Nikola Vucevic $9100
CHI @ MIA
It has been a while since we had a 6 game slate. The Hornets do not play today so the ownership will finally be spread out a bit. The 3 studs today: Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid are all priced above 11k. There is nobody from 10-10.9k. If you want to pay all the way up, you truly are going to be paying a hefty price tag. It comes down to whether we have the value to fit one or even two of these guys in. We do have a few guys under 4k that look pretty strong. Those options are on the Kings and the Heat. Speaking of the Heat, Vucevic is in a sneaky smash spot today. The Bulls continue to be shorthanded with most notably DeMar DeRozan out. In the 2 games without DeRozan, Vucevic has a 36.8% usage rate and 33.4%. These are huge bumps since nobody else on this roster commands the type of usage DeRozan does. It is the LaVine and Vucevic show.
Looking at DvP, the Heat do not appear to be a target for opposing centers. With Bam Adebayo out, the dropoff is immense. In the last 7 games, the Heat are allowing the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing centers. Dewayne Dedmon is an extremely easier matchup for Vooch. He has attempted 23 and 24 shot attempts since DeRozan has been out of the lineup. Vucevic is struggling with his shot right now but he should snap out of it soon. In these 2 games, he has still put up 38 and 41.5DKpts. The rebounds are going to be there. A center is not going to shoot 33% forever. Though he is not the same passer as the other Nikola, he contributes nicely with the assists. Vucevic has got everything working in his favor today. He is going to get increased usage against a weaker matchup. This should be a 50+DKpt performance today.
PG Kyle Lowry $7700
MIA vs CHI
On the other side of the ball, Lowry continues to play without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Lowry and Tyler Herro will have to carry this team for the time being. The last game is an outlier. PJ Tucker had the game of his life. Caleb Martin could not miss. KZ Okpala was a surprise. These 3 players had career games on the same night. Do not expect that to happen ever again. It is simple. No Butler and Bam mean more usage for Lowry and Herro. Without the two, Lowry has a 23.1% usage rate averaging 1.04FPM. Those are +3.6% and +0.07FPM bumps from when the two play. Lowry is not a volume scorer so he will not have the highest usage rate. He is able to contribute in every single stat category. Butler and Adebayo both contribute in pretty much every stat as well. Lowry is going to pick up a lot of what is being left behind.
These two teams have played once already this season. In that game, the Heat were healthy. Both Butler and Adebayo played but Lowry was able to put up 38.75DKpts. The Bulls were healthy as well. Lonzo Ball guarded Lowry that game so the individual matchup is not a concern. For whatever reason, Lowry continues to be under-owned with his star teammates out. He has outplayed Herro in the two recent games. Herro should continue to see higher ownership because he is cheaper and has SG eligibility. This is an easy pivot. Darius Garland at $7800 should be a popular option against the Kings. It is a better matchup so he should take away ownership from Lowry. I do not know how long this is going to last but Lowry should be over 8k with his teammates out. He is not even popular which is puzzling. If we do not get standout value by lock, it makes the midrange build even more appealing.
PG Ricky Rubio $5200
CLE vs SAC
Rubio has played 23 mins in back-to-back games due to blowouts. Both of these teams will be on a back-to-back today. Though Clevland plays slow and is a solid defensive team, the Kings are the complete opposite. This game has a 216 total with the Cavs favored by 6.5. With the minutes and his role off the bench, he should not be that high-owned. In competitive games, Rubio will close. He basically plays starters mins then in that case. Since he is not starting, it automatically makes him lower owned. Coming off of the bench also is not even a negative for Rubio. He gets his minutes staggered with Darius Garland. This allows Rubio to be the primary ball-handler and be a much more productive fantasy producer. With Collin Sexton out, Rubio is 2nd on the team in usage at 24.8%. He actually produces at a higher rate than Garland at 1.08FPM.
Rubio contributes all over the stat sheet. He has recorded 4rebs in 5 straight games. Rubio is a phenomenal passer and usually racks up steals. He is only averaging 1.1stls right now so there definitely is room to grow especially in a matchup against the Kings. Sacramento allows the most DKpts to opposing PGs this season. They allow the 9th-most steals to opponents. Rubio went off for a 50+DKpt game over a month ago at around this price after Sexton went down. Since then, he has been pretty consistent putting up between 20-40DKpts every game. He has a solid floor due to his peripherals. This is a ceiling spot because of the matchup. De’Anthony Melton is $5100. This does not mean to fade Melton for Rubio. Melton has SG eligibility. Melton might be my highest-owned player on the slate. Just play them together.
SG/SF Duncan Robinson $3500
MIA vs CHI
There are a few options under 4k right now. Robinson is going to get little ownership because he has not looked that great. He is not closing games even with Butler and Adebayo out. Robinson is an elite shooter but does nothing else. He has a 19.3% usage rate averaging 0.69FPM. That is a hideous number. However, he has been priced as high as 5k when the Heat were healthy. He is not playing more minutes because he is not a good defender. Miami will close with someone else in his place unless he is shooting well. He will not impact the game any other way so he needs to be hitting his shots to earn more playing time. The Bulls are bottom-third in opponent 3pt%. This is a tournament flier that has a single-digit floor if he cannot hit his shots but a tournament-winning ceiling if he gets hot.
Terence Davis is going to be chalky once again. He continues to start even with Harrison Barnes back. Davis only played 22mins on Friday but recorded 8rebs and 3stls. The Kings’ closing lineup is unpredictable. Other than Fox and Haliburton, the rest of the lineup depends on who is playing well. Davis is a bit foul-prone for a guard. In addition, he is in a tough matchup today. He does more on the floor than Robinson. However, this is daily fantasy. Anything can happen in a single game. Robinson can definitely outscore Davis at a fraction of the ownership and nobody should be surprised.
Just missed the cut: Bradley Beal, Draymond Green, Montrezl Harrell, Daniel Gafford, Dewayne Dedmon, Tristan Thompson, Bones Hyland, Isaac Okoro, Hassan Whiteside
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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