Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Dec 2, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Cade Cunningham $7500
DET @ NOP
We got a 9 game slate on hand for Friday. 2 of those games tip-off right at lock and they should be good ones. It is going to be difficult to backload your lineups to late swap because of how many great plays there are in the early games. As of now, there is not too much news we need to be on the lookout for. Some of the chalkier options should be the Hornets and Kings, Josh Hart, Jonas Valanciunas, Evan Mobley, and SGA. The #1 pick this year has not been a popular option since his price got raised above 7k. He struggled with his shot early on but he has since fixed that. Typically, young players play better at home. For Cade, he has shot significantly better away this season. That should even out as the year goes on but he is currently shooting 10% better including 14% better from 3 in away games. His peripherals are excellent which gives him not only a solid floor, but also a high ceiling.
The Pistons play at the 16th-fastest pace while the Pelicans are 19th so it will be relatively a neutral pace game. Vegas has this at a 211 total with the Pelicans favored by 5. New Orleans has the worst defensive efficiency rating this year. Josh Hart is healthy again. This makes the Pelicans a stronger team but it certainly is not someone who moves the needle a lot. Garrett Temple who often started for Hart while he was injured is a good defender in his own right. We probably see some mins of Hart guarding Cade. That is not a problem at all. Cunningham has a 26.7% usage rate averaging 1.03FPM. The way he is racking up the peripherals, that production should increase. He is shooting a lot better from the field. In close games, he will play 38mins. With this being a great matchup, he should be more productive than that 1.03 rate. Give him 36mins and that would project him out to be a terrific play today.
PG/SG Caris LeVert $5800
IND vs DAL
The injuries are starting to pile up for the Pacers. TJ Warren remains out while TJ McConnell and Justin Holiday are now out as well. On top of this, there are trade rumors swirling around LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner. Maybe they do get moved but that probably happens closer to the trade deadline. For today, LeVert looks like a great play factoring in the current injuries. LeVert has been a popular option since his price dropped to 5k. For a 9 game slate, his ownership could still be up there but people are not going to factor in the significance of TJ McConnell being out enough. It is a small sample size for this season with McConnell out so many players actually lose usage and produce at a lower rate than with him on. That obviously does not make sense. Using last year’s data and taking off TJ Warren and Victor Oladipo, LeVert leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate averaging 1.16FPM. This year he is at 26.4% and 0.91FPM.
LeVert’s production is going to increase. Taking off McConnell and replacing him with Brad Wanamaker gives more usage to the other 4 Pacers who are on the court. LeVert is going to benefit with more ball-handling duties which increase his potential assists. His minutes are staggered with Malcolm Brogdon as LeVert checks out earlier in the 1st quarter to sub back in later. LeVert was in foul trouble last game otherwise he could have put up a bigger game which would increase his ownership for today. He has dealt with injuries throughout his career especially this season. That probably is the reason why he shot so poorly to begin the year. It appears he has turned a corner recently. Opposite of Cunningham, LeVert shoots a lot better at home. He shoots 37% on the road vs 46% and 14% vs 36% from 3. Dallas is league average in defense so the matchup is just fine. It is the increased opportunity we should be targeting here.
SF/PF Lauri Markannen $5700
CLE @ MIN
Evan Mobley should be a popular option on today’s slate. The rookie is simply too talented to be priced at $6800. Even though the Timberwolves are a much better defensive team this season, they still play in some high-scoring games because they are 9th in pace. The Cavaliers are a solid defensive squad but play at a very slow pace. This is a significant pace-up spot for the Cavs. Jarred Vanderbilt is having a great season particularly on the defensive end and rebounding. He should be on Mobley. The Cavs have stuck with the big lineup meaning Markannen is going to play the 3 a lot. He does shift to the 4 when the starters’ minutes get staggered. He would avoid Vanderbilt and face off against probably Jaden McDaniels. Not to mention, he probably gets Anthony Edwards defense. The Wolves allow the 5th-most DKpts to SFs. Whatever the matchup is, this puts Markannen closer to the basket for more rebounding opportunities.
After Collin Sexton went down, Markannen’s usage and production has not moved much. The others have gotten at most a 1% increase in usage. Mobley is the better play but that does not mean it is going to happen that way. Markannen should see mid-30s minutes in a competitive game. He has had two 1reb games which are outliers. A 7-footer is going to grab a lot more rebounds than that when playing 30+mins. The concern is that he is reliant on points and rebounds. Since this is a pace-up spot with possibly the Wolves being short-handed, he is in a good spot. There will be more shots put up meaning more chances for rebounds. The pace should give Markannen more looks and quality ones too. If he can shoot well, he has 40+DKpt upside in a matchup like this one tonight.
PF Marvin Bagley III $3700
SAC @ CHA
This game has a 228.5 total with the Kings favored by 1. I am expecting high ownership on both sides in this one. The Kings should start either Tristan Thompson or Alex Len in place of Richaun Holmes. The two of them split the 24 center minutes in the 2nd half on Wednesday. That game was against the Magic. They feature 2 bigs in Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba. Bagley only played PF in that game. Mo Harkless returned but was a DNP as well as Chimezie Metu. Alvin Gentry is playing Bagley ahead of those guys and is solidified as the backup PF. Bagley is capable of playing center and has done so in previous seasons for the Kings. Just because we did not see it happen last game, does not mean it will not happen today. The Hornets are going to be very short-handed yet again. They are using PJ Washington for most of the game at center. That is their idea lineup over Nick Richards.
Richards played more than usual last game. That was due to the matchup against Joel Embiid and Washington was in foul trouble. Since Holmes is out for this game, I am more confident in Bagley potentially picking up more mins and at center. Thompson and Len are both traditional centers. Len has extended his range but he does not play a lot of minutes. Both of them are not quick enough laterally. Bagley is a lot more versatile and would match up better against Washington. Bagley has put up some solid games recently so the ownership will not be that low. However, he should come off the bench again. He is in an excellent game environment and has a chance to play closer to 25mins in this one if Gentry decides to deploy him at center. The matchup makes perfect sense for this to happen.
Just missed the cut: Domantas Sabonis, John Collins, Buddy Hield, RJ Barrett, Saddiq Bey, Devonte’ Graham, Killian Hayes, Mitchell Robinson
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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