Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/31:
Dec 25, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Obi Toppin (1) disagrees with a call in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Hawks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0
We’ll get this New Years Eve slate started with the Heat, they’re still incredibly shorthanded and have Jimmy Butler come in as questionable. We will need updates from the Breaking News Feed because even if Butler plays they only have seven active players tonight. That being said, they did sign a few 10-day contracts so we will need to know if they’re active, otherwise, this game will not play. Assuming Butler plays and the rest of this game is a go, there will be four guys that I have interest in and they will be Butler, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven, and Caleb Martin. The intrigue is pretty large on them honestly against a bad Rockets team. Butler, Herro, and Yurtseven have been great per minute as of late and are going to play huge minutes here and that’s the reason to like Martin as well, he will have to play all the minutes he can handle here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. returned last time out and played 35 minutes, so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited going forward. I’ll have no issue going right back to him in this spot, he looked good in his return. Jalen Green also returned over the past week and has at least 32 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The price tag looks really nice on him, but we’ve seen some volatility on him this season. I will likely hold him for tournaments, but I won’t talk you off of playing him in cash of single entry if you happen to fall on him again. Christian Wood feels a bit overpriced right now, especially with Green and Porter Jr. returning and taking away some of that usage and production. I’ll save him for tournaments as well due to the ceiling we know he has. Then the rest of this team is more MME-type plays than anything with guys like Eric Gordon.
***Assuming Jimmy Butler is a full-go***
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven
4-star play: Caleb Martin, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Christian Wood
Deeper Value: Caleb Martin, other Heat starter
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Green, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon
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Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.0
Starting with Hawks, Trae Young continues to look solid even at an increased price tag on DraftKings. DraftKings continues to price up these stars due to the amount of value we’ve been getting with these shorthanded teams. The price obviously looks better on FanDuel, but a guy I still like here on both sites. Clint Capela has looked good as well and a guy I’ll keep going back to with the Hawks being shorthanded in the frontcourt, his minutes are extremely secure right now. Cam Reddish had a down game last time out but the minutes are still there for him and does enough per minute to give me an interest in him again here. Bogdan Bogdanovic hitting the Covid list brought Skylar Mays back into the picture and played 31 minutes last time out. He wasn’t all that effective, but if we do fall short with value here, he looks like a nice option. From the Cavs, Jarrett Allen came in as doubtful yesterday so it sounds like he’s getting closer to a return, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again here. With that being said, I’m going to continue to go back to the Kevin Love well, the guy is torching teams on a per-minute basis and he got the start last night which is huge for his production. With Allen, Sexton, and Garland off the court this season he has a 27.1% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute. Evan Mobley looked solid last game as well and someone I don’t mind getting to here, but would be more of a tournament guy for me. Lauri Markkanen has started to look better over his last few games but the price tag has come up as well. That said, if Allen ends up missing again, I’ll have no issue going right back to him here. Then we can round this team out with Isaac Okoro and Denzel Valentine as GPP value plays.
***UPDATE – As I write this, Denzel Valentine has been traded to the Lakers in the Rajon Rondo trade, he will not play tonight.***
***Assuming Jarrett Allen is OUT***
5-star play: Trae Young, Kevin Love
4-star play: Clint Capela, Cam Reddish, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: Skylar Mays, Isaac Okoro, Denzel Valentine
GPP Sleeper: Skylar Mays, Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Denzel Valentine
Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 210.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -6.5
Starting with the Clippers, they’ll be without Paul George while Reggie Jackson comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. Eric Bledsoe has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and looks like a solid option again here if Jackson ends up sitting again. The same can be said for Terance Mann but would likely be more of a tournament guy for me due to the volatility he presents. Marcus Morris continues to look great as well with at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight games and is playing a ton of minutes right now. Then we need to round out the Clippers with their frontcourt as Ivica Zubac has been ruled out. My assumption and hope are that we get Serge Ibaka starting at the five and get a good chunk of minutes. Assuming he does start he looks like a great value option in a revenge game with the Raptors. Speaking of the Raptors, I’m going to leave the breakdown of this team for our Breaking News Feed simply because they have about five or six guys that will come in as questionable due to being cleared from league protocols but will come down to whether the conditioning is there on them or not.
***Assuming Reggie Jackson is OUT***
5-star play: Serge Ibaka (if starting), TOR TBD
4-star play: Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, TOR TBD
Deeper Value: Serge Ibaka, TOR TBD
GPP Sleeper: Serge Ibaka, Terance Mann, TOR TBD
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
Starting with the Spurs, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray again here so they’ll need more minutes from guys like Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell, maybe even a little Keita Bates-Diop. Keep an eye on Lonnie Walker’s status as well as he comes into this one as questionable. Derrick White has a 22.8% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Murray off the court this season and looks like a solid secondary option here as he continues to produce nicely. Keldon Johnson has been in great form as of late and actually showing some consistency which is new for him, but seems to be priced right about where he should be relative to his median production, he does have some meat on the bone in terms of his ceiling, however. Then we can round this team out with Jakob Poeltl, he bounced back in a big way against Gobert last time out and a guy I have no issue going back to at this price tag. From the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton as well as John Konchar who looked like he was going to be a nice value option last time out. We saw Kyle Anderson get the start last time out, but man he’s not a fun roster. He’s a guy that I’ll be underweight on again if he is highly owned. I was all over Ja Morant last time out and made my core in our Coaches Notes/Cheat Sheets last time the Grizzlies were on the slate. He dropped 66 DraftKings points and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here, as we continue to target point guards against the Spurs. Jaren Jackson is probably more of a tournament guy for me here due to the volatility he’s shown as of late, and his usage and production come down quite a bit with Morant back in the rotation. Desmond Bane was another guy that I had in my DraftKings core last time this team was on the slate. He still looks like a great option on DraftKings as he gets an $800 discount over there compared to FanDuel and has been in great form. Then we can round this slate out with Steven Adams as a secondary tournament option here.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Steven Adams
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 206.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -5.0
Starting with the Knicks, they’ll be without Derrick Rose of course and now Julius Randle as well. I would expect Obi Toppin to get the start for Randle here and is a really interesting value option in a great matchup with a bad Thunder team. Toppin has yet to top 30 minutes in a game in his NBA career, obviously a small sample size, but if he can get there tonight I think he looks like a great option here. Below is how the rest of this team operates with Rose and Randle off the court this season:
- Alec Burks – 26.5% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Immanuel Quickley – 25.3% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Obi Toppin – 22.1% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 9.4% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Kemba Walker – 25% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 23.8% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
The sample size with Walker and Barrett is really small, so I’m not digging too much into them but I’ll have a lot of interest in the starting five for this team. From the Thunder, we need news on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he comes in as questionable here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s playing and will be a nice option again here with Josh Giddey continuing to be out. Derrick Favors returned last time out and played just 12 minutes while we saw 19 minutes from Isaiah Roby and 15 minutes from Mike Muscala. I think this frontcourt is more of a stay away than anything at this point. Ty Jerome looked really good last time out and a guy I’ll go right back to if Gilgeous-Alexander sits again, obviously big news we’ll need here.
***Assuming Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is IN***
5-star play: Obi Toppin, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Kemba Walker, RJ Barrett, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Obi Toppin
GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson, Immanuel Quickley, Lu Dort
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -12.0
Starting with the Wolves, Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt come into this one as questionable as Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell continue to be out. I’ll operate under the assumption that Edwards and Vanderbilt are good to go here and look like solid options here assuming they’re not limited by any means. Edwards back in the lineup will take usage away from guys like Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley, but still guys that would get big minutes due to Russell and Towns being out. The frontcourt is a bit of a mess however, it will tighten up a bit if Vanderbilt is good to go but the trio of Naz Reid, Greg Monroe, and Nathan Knight isn’t anything I want to take a stab at. From the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell will return here while Mike Conley will be out and Joe Ingles is questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that Ingles is good to go and will expect him to start again for Conley. Below is how the rest of this team operates with Mike Conley off the court this season:
- Donovan Mitchell – 35% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Jordan Clarkson – 26.2% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Bojan Bogdanovic – 21.8% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Joe Ingles – 13.3% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Rudy Gobert – 16.9% usage rate; 1.43 fpm
These would be the main pieces I would want from the Jazz and both Gobert and Mitchell look like elite options in a great matchup with this Wolves defense. Gobert is averaging 41.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wolves this season while Mitchell is averaging 47.5 DraftKings points per game.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale
GPP Sleeper: Wolves frontcourt, Royce O’Neale, Hassan Whiteside
Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -5.5
We’ll round this slate out starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard bounced back nicely last time out and scored 43 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season. With CJ McCollum off the court this season he has a 33.3% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy points per minute and looks like a solid option here. I would expect the Blazers to go somewhat small again and start Larry Nance Jr. at center in place of Nurkic as they did last game, he looked great in a big game and someone I have no issue going right back to (also…. revenge game!). Nassir Little came down to Earth last time out but the minutes will still be there and the price tag is still pretty nice. I like going right back to the well with him here. We can round out the Blazers with Norman Powell as a secondary option here, he should play a ton of minutes. From the Lakers, they’ll continue to be without Anthony Davis here which will make LeBron James and Russell Westbrook look like nice options here. LeBron has a 31.3% usage rate and 1.52 fantasy points per minute with Davis off the court this season while Westbrook is at a 29.5% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute. LeBron is steamrolling his way through teams right now and has at least 61 DraftKings points in four straight games and a guy you’ll want to get some exposure to in a great matchup again here. Talen Horton-Tucker moved back to the bench last game which was long overdue, let’s see if he can get something going with the second unit with a bit more usage, not a guy I want to go to here but something to keep an eye on. Lastly, Malik Monk will continue to see big minutes and producing nicely, he’s a nice option at this price tag.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, LeBron James
4-star play: Larry Nance Jr., Nassir Little, Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk
Deeper Value: Malik Monk
GPP Sleeper: Carmelo Anthony
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NBA Lock of the Day: Obi Toppin (DK – $3.9k; FD – $4.3k)
Is it finally time for New York to unleash their x-factor? Due to Julius Randle being out, I would expect Obi Toppin to get the start at the four tonight in a great matchup with the Thunder. The price tag looks great on him and is a 1.04 fantasy point per minute guy with Derrick Rose and Randle off the court this season. I’m going to buy the hype and go get some Toppin tonight! At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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