Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/29:
Dec 28, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) reacts after scoring a basket during the fourth quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 208.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -6.5
Starting things off with the Bucks, Derrick Rose will be out here but the rest of this team is getting healthier as they get a lot of their backcourt depth back from league protocols. Julius Randle came down back under 40 fantasy points again last night and is just going to be a guy I don’t see myself getting to at this price tag, especially on DraftKings where he is $10.8k. Alec Burks is another guy that I’ll be off of again as he’s gone back to the bench and has less than 20 minutes in back-to-back games. Kemba Walker is the reason he’s back on the bench, Kemba should continue to start here but did not look great last night. That being said, we’ve seen the upside, and is playing big minutes, so I don’t have an issue going back to him here. Evan Fournier is a fine option, but not a guy that I want to prioritize by any means. RJ Barrett would be more of an MME-type play for me tonight, he’s not getting big minutes and hasn’t exactly looked great over his last couple of games. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson has suddenly gotten at least 25 minutes in four straight games and has over 40 fantasy points in two of them. He makes sense as a tournament option at center. From the Pistons, I’ll operate under the assumption that Cade Cunningham is still out which leaves this team pretty shorthanded. We should continue to see big minutes for guys like Saddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo, and Frank Jackson, and all of them look like solid options at their respective price tags. Then we go down to the bargain bin where Luka Garza should continue to start at the five and played 20 minutes on his way to 31 DraftKings points last time out. He likely would’ve played a few more minutes but was in foul trouble all game in that one. Lastly, I would expect Derrick Walton Jr. continues to start for them as well. He’s not a good basketball player by any means but minutes are king in NBA DFS and he was able to put up 19 DraftKings points in 31 minutes of run last time out.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kemba Walker, Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle (FanDuel), Saddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson
Deeper Value: Derrick Walton Jr., Luka Garza
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson
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Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -3.0
Starting with Hornets, they’ll be without Miles Bridges and PJ Washington again here, so I’m expecting Jalen McDaniels to get the start and gets a nice amount of minutes at the four. He hasn’t shown a massive ceiling by any means but he doesn’t really have to at this price tag. I was all over LaMelo Ball last time out and is someone I’ll go right back to here in a great matchup. He has a 27.7% usage rate and 1.55 fantasy points per minute with Bridges and Washington off the court this season. Kelly Oubre was able to get to the 30-minute mark last time out as well, I would expect more of the same with these guys out, but I can’t say I love the price tag. He’ll be more of a tournament option for me. Then we can round this team out with Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier as secondary options in a great matchup that should be DFS gold, the Pacers haven’t stopped anyone all season long. Speaking of the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out just because he’s been out for over a week now. Here is how Indiana operates with Brogdon and McConnell off the court this season:
- Domantas Sabonis – 21.7% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Myles Turner – 21.7% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 31.9% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Chris Duarte – 23.4% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
These would be my favorite four options for the Pacers in a great matchup with the Hornets defense. That said, the price tags are really tough on DraftKings, it seems like one of those days where they’re pricing guys up due to the amount of solid $3k value we’ve had as of late. Assuming we get the value, these guys are all in play and especially on FanDuel.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre, Jalen McDaniels, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen McDaniels, Kelly Oubre, Gordon Hayward, Chris Duarte
Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 209.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.5
Starting with the Clippers, they’ll be without Paul George and Reggie Jackson again so we can expect more minutes to go around for the rest of this backcourt and wings. Eric Bledsoe came back to Earth last time out after dropping a 50 burger on the Nuggets. I have no issue going right back to him in GPPs in the mid-range. The same can be said for Terance Mann who looked a bit slow against the Nets, but the minutes will be there. Marcus Morris looked great last time out and now has at least 35 DraftKings points in three straight games, he should get a good amount of usage with these guys off the court. Then we can round out the Clippers with Ivica Zubac, the Celtics don’t rebound well so I can see a case being made for him. Then Serge Ibaka is a fine GPP dart for value, he’s not going to play a ton of minutes but has been a nice per minute guy when he’s out there. From the Celtics, it sounds like Jayson Tatum and Dennis Schroder will be out for this game while Marcus Smart comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that Marcus Smart plays, but below is how the rest of this team operates with Tatum and Schroder off the court this season:
- Payton Pritchard – 23.2% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Jaylen Brown – 34.3% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- Marcus Smart – 23.7% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Robert Williams – 15.8% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Al Horford – 16.2% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
Williams and Horford don’t have a huge sample size in this data run, but the numbers look pretty accurate to where they would be. I included Pritchard in there because if Smart were to miss I would expect he gets the start again and looked great last time out going for 46 DraftKings points in 45 minutes of run.
5-star play: Jaylen Brown
4-star play: Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Deeper Value: Serge Ibaka
GPP Sleeper: Serge Ibaka, Terance Mann, Robert Williams, Ivica Zubac
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -8.5
We saw this matchup the last time these two took the court, so we have something to go off here. We’ll start with the Hawks, they got Trae Young back last game from the Covid list and played 40 minutes on his way to 43 DraftKings points. I have no issue going back to him in this spot, it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited, and with how shorthanded the Hawks are he may fall into a bit more usage as well. They got Clint Capela back but lost John Collins to the Covid list shortly after as well. You can go right back to Capela here as well, but not a priority by any means. Cam Reddish wasn’t really impacted by Young being back, he played 40 minutes as well and shot the ball really well going 8-13 from three-point range. The price continues to climb on him, but a guy I will still have interest in here. Bogdan Bogdanovic will hit the Covid list here as well which will bring Skylar Mays back into the picture and looks like a nice value option as well. Lastly, with Collins, Onyeka Okongwu, and Gorgui Dieng out they’ll be pretty shorthanded at the four so we could see minutes for guys like Wes Iwundu or more minutes for these bigger wings. Capela should see all the minutes he can handle as well. From the Bulls, Coby White bounced back a bit last time out and should continue to play good minutes at a nice price tag. I would expect he starts again here with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso out again, but probably more of a tournament guy at this point. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan both went bananas last time out. This Hawks team doesn’t have a whole lot of defense right now, so I have no issue going right back to them here. Nikola Vucevic was right there with them with a 65 point fantasy night, again, no issue going right back to the well.
5-star play: Trae Young
4-star play: Clint Capela, Cam Reddish, Skylar Mays, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: Skylar Mays, Wes Iwundu, Coby White
GPP Sleeper: Wes Iwundu, Coby White
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll continue to be without Anthony Davis here which will make LeBron James and Russell Westbrook look like nice options here. LeBron has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.49 fantasy points per minute with Davis off the court this season while Westbrook is at a 29.9% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute. Both James and Westbrook had big nights last night and guys I’ll go right back to here, that said, I’ll probably just find the money off of Westbrook to get to James. Talen Horton-Tucker continues to struggle, so he’ll be more of a fade for me going forward. In the same category of guys, Malik Monk has looked great as of late with at least 32 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and playing heavy minutes. He’s a guy I love at this price tag yet again. From the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton as well as John Konchar who looked like he was going to be a nice value option last time out. I would expect Kyle Anderson to get the start and play big minutes and looks like a nice mid-range option here. I do like the price tag on Ja Morant a good deal, he’s a bit volatile but a guy I would definitely have interest in for tournaments. Jaren Jackson had a rough go of it last time out but is always in play for tournaments due to the upside. He’s averaging 30.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Lakers this season. Desmond Bane continues to look good at a nice price tag, he’s had at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and you get a $1.5k discount on DraftKings compared to FanDuel which is a first. Then we can round this slate out with Steven Adams as a secondary tournament option here.
5-star play: LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Desmond Bane (DraftKings)
4-star play: Malik Monk, Ja Morant, Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson, Kyle Anderson, Desmond Bane (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Steven Adams
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Sas -5.0
Starting with the Heat, I was all over Jimmy Butler last night and he had a massive game and will be a guy I go right back to here. His price really hasn’t moved and as you’ll see below he has a 29.1% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Bam and Lowry off the court. Speaking of, with Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry off the court this season, here is how the rest of the team operates:
- Jimmy Butler – 29% usage rate; 1.42 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 32.7% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
- Omer Yurtseven – 22.8% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
These would be the main guys that stand out to me, particularly Butler, Herro, and Yurtseven. Yurtseven should continue to start now that Bam and Dedmon are both out for an extended period of time. He has at least 24 DraftKings points in five straight games and looks good at this price tag in a great matchup. One thing to note is Max Strus and Gabe Vincent both entered Covid protocols so we will see huge minutes from Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin, I like Martin quite a bit at this price tag. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray again here so they’ll need more minutes from guys like Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell, maybe even a little Keita Bates-Diop. Derrick White has a 22.8% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Murray off the court this season and looks like a solid secondary option here. Keldon Johnson has been in great form as of late and actually showing some consistency which is new for him. Then we can round this team out with Jakob Poeltl, this Heat frontcourt is all sort of banged up, and now lost PJ Tucker to the Covid list as well, he should do whatever he wants down low in this one.
***As I write this Jimmy Butler has been ruled out, check out the Breaking News Feed for who benefits from this. You may want to check out my lock of the day at the end of the article as well for a hint.***
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Omer Yurtseven, Tyler Herro
4-star play: Duncan Robinson, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Caleb Martin
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -14.5
Starting with the Thunder, I was really high on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last night with Josh Giddey out. He ended up salvaging a bad first half and ended with 46.75 DraftKings points. I mentioned this yesterday but with Giddey off the court this season Shai has a 35.7% usage rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute which is a +7% usage increase and +0.25 fantasy points per minute. I would expect Isaiah Roby to get the start at the five again with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Derrick Favors out again. He played 22 minutes last night on his way to 20 DraftKings points, he makes a lot of sense as a min price value on this slate. Aaron Wiggins looks like a good value as well but has been shooting lights out as of late, I would expect that to regress sooner rather than later. Then we can round the Thunder out with Lu Dort as a GPP option. From the Suns, Deandre Ayton will be the big name that is out here, so we can go right back to the JaVale McGee well. He looked pretty bad last time out but is an elite per-minute guy when he’s out there. After McGee, I don’t really have a ton of interest from the Suns on a big slate like we have tonight. The Suns are always priced right where they should be and spread pretty thin when it comes to fantasy output. That said, I won’t talk you off of Devin Booker or Chris Paul if you want to go there in tournaments.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Roby, JaVale McGee
Deeper Value: Isaiah Roby
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Wiggins, Lu Dort, Chris Paul, Devin Booker
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Utah Jazz @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -7.0
Starting with the Jazz, they’ll be without Donovan Mitchell again, and we saw Joe Ingles get the start in his place last time out. Below is how this team operates with Mitchell off the court this season:
- Rudy Gobert – 18.1% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Jordan Clarkson – 31.3% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Joe Ingles – 15.1% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Mike Conley – 20.5% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Bojan Bogdanovic – 29.1% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
I would expect Joe Ingles to get the start again here and will be a guy I like quite a bit, then Jordan Clarkson would be my second favorite option on the Jazz as more shots will open up for him in a great matchup with a fast-paced Blazers team. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard struggled in this spot earlier in the season but has different circumstances here with how shorthanded this team is. With CJ McCollum off the court this season he has a 33.3% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy points per minute and looks like a solid option here. I would expect the Blazers go somewhat small and start Larry Nance Jr. at center in place of Nurkic as they did last game, but they will struggle with Gobert down there… it makes me think they do what they can to try and run him off the court. Nassir Little was a guy I had a lot of interest in last time out and he had a big game going for a 50 burger on FanDuel. I like going right back to the well with him here. We can round out the Blazers with Norman Powell as a secondary option here, he should play a ton of minutes.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Nassir Little, Norman Powell
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Larry Nance Jr.
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -2.5
We’ll round out this slate starting with the Mavs who will continue to be without Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway. Kristaps Porzingis looks like a nice option here but the price tag is scary, he has a 34.1% usage rate and 1.57 fantasy points per minute with these two off the court this season and gets an elite matchup with a bad Kings defense. Jalen Brunson will be the other guy I continue to get to as well, he’s going to play a ton of minutes and has a 27.2% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Luka and Hardaway off the court this season. Dorian Finney-Smith continues to look good as well and playing all the minutes he can handle, he makes sense as a secondary option here. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox bounced back slightly last time out but we’re still not seeing him consistently over 40 fantasy points. We know the ceiling is there somewhere, so I’ll have some GPP interest, but that’s about it. Fox being back hasn’t really hurt Tyrese Haliburton, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five games including the last game with Fox out there with him. Buddy Hield is another guy that I’ll be underweight on, he moved back to the bench and is still priced up. Harrison Barnes is a fine secondary option but not a priority by any means. Lastly, I was pretty big on Richaun Holmes last night and don’t have any issue going right back to him tonight in hopes his minutes come up. He’s not a $5.5k player.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson
4-star play: Dorian Finney-Smith, Tyrese Haliburton, Richaun Holmes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes
NBA Lock of the Day: Tyler Herro (DK – $6.9k; FD – $6.2k)
As I was writing this we got Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, and Gabe Vincent ruled out for the Heat, so they will be extremely shorthanded tonight. With Butler, Lowry, and Bam off the court this season, Herro is staring at a 36.5% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute. He will need to play all the minutes he can handle tonight and a guy I love. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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