Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/28:
Nov 6, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) talks to fans during the first half against the Utah Jazz at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -13.0
Starting things off with the Bucks, they got Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis back last time out along with Donte DiVincenzo making his season debut, so they’re pretty much at full health other than Brook Lopez still being out. Giannis returned and played 30 minutes on his way to 63 DraftKings points. It’s pretty clear he won’t be limited going forward and is an elite option against this Orlando team. Bobby Portis didn’t start the last game and played just 22 minutes, I don’t think this is long-term but could have something to do with his conditioning. I would expect he rejoins the starting rotation at some point but if it’s not today, I’ll likely be underweight. DeMarcus Cousins got the start on Christmas for Portis but played just 17 minutes, Portis being back kind of kills Cousins at his current price tag. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are both fine options but Holiday, in particular, feels a bit outpriced for me now that Giannis is back. DiVincenzo returned to play just 16 minutes, he’ll be eased back into the rotation, so I’ll fade him until we see him get back up to his normal minutes. Then we can round this team out with Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton in GPPs, although their minutes take a hit as well with the Bucks getting healthier. From the Magic, the price tag on Wendell Carter Jr. is up there, but it’s warranted with how shorthanded they are. He saw just 25 minutes last time out, but the fact that he’s not on the injury report leads me to believe that he’ll be a full go. Franz Wagner had a down game last time out but I have no issue going right back to him here, they’ll need all the minutes he can handle yet again. I don’t have an issue with the Gary Harris price tag either, he looks like a solid secondary option. Robin Lopez’s value was killed with Carter Jr. returning last game as he went back to the bench, I’ll fade Lopez unless he gets another start. Then we can round the Magic out with probably my favorite option on the team with RJ Hampton. He cleared protocols last time out and played 32 minutes, he’s one of their young talents and will get run here with Cole Anthony and the rest of these guys being out… love him at this price tag.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, RJ Hampton
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, Gary Harris
Deeper Value: RJ Hampton, Hassani Gravett
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen
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Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 208.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -6.5
Starting with Wizards, we’ll need news from this team as Bradley Beal comes in as questionable after being in Covid protocols. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but if he remains out I think you can go right back to the well on Spencer Dinwiddie who has a 27.2% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute with Beal off the court this season. The other guy that jumps out to me on this team is Daniel Gafford now that Montrezl Harrell has entered into league protocols. His minutes should be secured here with Harrell out and looks like a great option in all formats, he’s a great per-minute producer on the season and should be able to do whatever he wants against this banged-up Heat frontcourt. Kyle Kuzma should see a boost as well and has a 25.1% usage rate with 1.13 fantasy points per minute with Beal and Harrell off the court this season. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler returned last time out to play 35 minutes, so we can assume he’s a full go here and looks like a great option in an awesome matchup. With Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry off the court this season, here is how the rest of the team operates:
- Jimmy Butler – 29% usage rate; 1.42 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 32.7% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
- Gabe Vincent – 17.9% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Omer Yurtseven – 22.8% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
These would be the main guys that stand out to me, particularly Butler, Herro, and Yurtseven. Yurtseven should continue to start now that Bam and Dedmon are both out for an extended period of time. He has at least 24 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks good at this price tag in a great matchup.
***The below is assuming Bradley Beal is OUT***
5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Daniel Gafford, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Corey Kispert, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 211.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -6.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid had a big game last time out and now has at least 60 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. He should be able to do whatever he wants against this Raptors frontcourt and makes a lot of sense assuming we have the value on tonight’s slate. Tobias Harris just isn’t going to be a guy I pay this price tag for on DraftKings, he’s priced at about his ceiling, he’ll be a fade for me. If you want exposure to him, do it on FanDuel. Then we can round out the Sixers with Tyrese Maxey and Seth Curry as secondary tournament options. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and Khem Birch have all cleared league protocols so we will need news on these guys before we can dig too deep into this team, but would be a huge boost to the team as they’ve been running a G-League unit lately. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on the Raptors here and we will have a full breakdown there.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, TOR TBD
4-star play: Tobias Harris (FanDuel), Tyrese Maxey, TOR TBD
Deeper Value: TOR TBD
GPP Sleeper: Seth Curry, TOR TBD
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -5.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll continue to be without Anthony Davis here which will make LeBron James and Russell Westbrook look like nice options here. LeBron has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Davis off the court this season while Westbrook is at a 29.8% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute. I would expect Talen Horton-Tucker to continue to see big minutes and makes sense as a GPP guy even in the form that he’s in. Then the rest of this team will be more MME-type plays than anything for me. Another thing to note is Isaiah Thomas is no longer on the Lakers, so don’t play him. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green were both available last night but didn’t play. I will need to see them in the starting lineup before I go back to either of them and even then I would want to know they’re not limited. We saw Josh Christopher and David Nwaba get the start last night as Jae’Sean Tate entered league protocols as well. Christopher was a guy I liked a bunch and he threw up a dud… it’ll be hard for me to pull the trigger on him again here, but the price didn’t budge and the minutes will be there if those two guys are out again. Nwaba looked good and is a guy that stuffs the stat sheet, he would be a nice value option if he starts again. Christian Wood just feels overpriced right now, I’ll think of him more as a tournament option at this time. Then we’ll need news on Porter Jr. and Green before we can really look into Eric Gordon and Armoni Brooks.
***The below assumes Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green are OUT, similar to last night***
5-star play: LeBron James
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Christian Wood, David Nwaba (needs to start), Josh Christopher (needs to start)
Deeper Value: David Nwaba, Josh Christopher
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Eric Gordon, Armoni Brooks
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
New York Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 213.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -3.5
Starting with the Knicks, Derrick Rose will be out here but the rest of this team is getting healthier as they get a lot of their backcourt depth back from league protocols. Julius Randle finally had a nice bounce-back game last time out but he’s just outpriced on DraftKings for me at the moment. I do love the matchup, but I’ll get my exposure to him on FanDuel where he’s under $9k. Alec Burks was pretty brutal last game and was moved to the bench in favor of Kemba starting. If that’s going to be his new regular role, he’s outpriced in my opinion. Kemba Walker has continued to start and played at least 40 minutes in three straight games to go along with at least 40 fantasy points in each of those games. If he starts again you can go right back to the well on him. If he goes back to the bench he would be a fade, simple as that. Evan Fournier is a fine option, but not a guy that I want to prioritize by any means. RJ Barrett returned last game to play 26 minutes, I would expect those minutes to come up here and is a fine mid-range option in a good matchup. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson isn’t a guy that I’ll have as a priority but has seen at least 25 minutes in four of his last five games and I love targeting bigs against the Wolves. From the Wolves, much like last night, they’re going to be without their starting five here, so it’s going to be a mix and match of who all gets the start. My assumption would be we get a starting lineup similar to Beverley, Beasley, Okogie, McDaniels, and Nathan Knight to close out the five. Knight had a massive game last night and the sites haven’t had the time to increase his price tag, he’s an elite value here. Jaden McDaniels has at least 28 DraftKings points in three straight and looks like a tournament option. Malik Beasley is a guy I’ll have a lot of interest in here as well as his price tag has come down. He’s going to play massive minutes and has a 24% usage rate with 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past week.
5-star play: Kemba Walker, Julius Randle (FanDuel), Nathan Knight
4-star play: Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Jaden McDaniels, Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley
Deeper Value: Nathan Knight
GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 213.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.0
Starting with the Cavs, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will continue to be out here and we saw Kevin Love get the start last game which is big for his minutes… but they beat the Raptors by about 50 which caused him to see just 18 minutes. That said, he still dropped 40 fantasy points, with Allen and Mobley off the court this season he has a 27.3% usage rate and 1.61 fantasy points per minute. If he starts again, he’ll be a guy I absolutely love here. Darius Garland continues to look like a great option but man that price tag is tough to get to on DraftKings, get your exposure to him on FanDuel. Then we can round out the Cavs with Lauri Markkanen and Ricky Rubio as secondary options. From the Pels, Brandon Ingram comes in as doubtful, Josh Hart as questionable, and Jonas Valanciunas is expected back here. I’ll operate under the assumption that Hart plays, and here is how this team operates with Ingram off the court this season:
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker – 27.2% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 26.5% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Devonte’ Graham – 22% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Josh Hart – 17.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
These four would be my favorite options on the Pels, I won’t have much interest in a Herb Jones if ends up starting for Ingram, but there will definitely be more usage and shots to go around with Brandon Ingram out tonight.
5-star play: Kevin Love, Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Devonte’ Graham, Josh Hart, Darius Garland (FanDuel), Lauri Markkanen, Ricky Rubio
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lauri Markkanen, Ricky Rubio
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -7.0
Starting with the Nuggets, it’s basically going to be just Nikola Jokic for me from this team. He has at least 60 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will be able to do whatever he wants against this undersized Warriors frontcourt. Then guys like Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Aaron Gordon are all fine options, but I don’t think we need them on this slate. Go get Jokic and move on with your lineup. From the Warriors, Steph Curry is right there with Jokic as a top-end spend-up option on this slate and has at least 57 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Andrew Wiggins is available to return here but I would put him in that Will Barton category as a fine option. Then it’s really just Gary Payton and Otto Porter Jr. that look like solid mid-range guys with the Warriors still being shorthanded, both have been in great form as of late. Short and sweet here!
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry
4-star play: Will Barton, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
We’ll round this slate out starting with the Thunder, we just got news that Josh Giddey has entered league protocols, so there will be some minutes that open up here. The only issue with the Thunder is I don’t think there’s one guy that will step into that Giddey role and jumps out as a clear value here. The guy that should see the minutes is Kenrich Williams and looks like a solid GPP value option if you want to pivot off of some of the other values. The thing that Giddey being out does is shoot Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s production up. With Giddey off the court this season Shai has a 35.7% usage rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute which is a +7% usage increase and +0.25 fantasy points per minute… he’s an awesome option in a great matchup with a bad Kings team. Then we can round this team out with Lu Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as tournament options here. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox returned last time out to play 30 minutes but looked pretty rusty with just 19 DraftKings points. I’m going to be underweight on him until he proves the production can still be there. Fox being back hurts Tyrese Haliburton at this price tag, but he still looked good last time out, I just don’t know that I can get to Haliburton at this boosted tag. Buddy Hield is another guy that I’ll be underweight on, he moved back to the bench last game and played just 24 minutes. Harrison Barnes is a fine secondary option but not a priority by any means. Lastly, if we get news that Richaun Holmes won’t be limited going forward, I’ll have a lot of interest in him at this price tag.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Lu Dort, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Tyrese Haliburton
Deeper Value: Kenrich Williams
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Buddy Hield, De’Aaron Fox
NBA Lock of the Day: Kevin Love (DK – $6.7k; FD – $7.0k)
I could take the easy road and put RJ Hampton or Nathan Knight here, but I’m going to die on the Kevin Love hill. I will say, this is completely dependant on Love getting the start as he did last time out. Love starting is huge for his minutes, as I mentioned in the Cavs breakdown, he saw just 18 minutes due to a huge blowout last time out but he still finished with 40 fantasy points. He has a 27.3% usage rate and 1.61 fantasy points per minute with Mobley and Allen off the court this season, so you can imagine what a few extra minutes would do to his production at 1.61 fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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