Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/27:
Dec 25, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden (13) controls the ball against Los Angeles Lakers guard Malik Monk (11) during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Cha -6.5
I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend, we kick off the week with a nice seven-game slate tonight. We’ll get started with the Rockets, it sounds like there’s a chance both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green both play tonight, but come in as questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding them, but them being back will take away usage and production from Christian Wood and the rest of these Rockets guys. I would want to know that they’re not limited by any means before I go back to them, but if that’s the case, this matchup is great and this game has a massive implied total. Speaking of Wood, he dropped 63.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and would be in play for me in tournaments at the very least regardless of the status of these other guys. Jae’Sean Tate is a fine option, but I think we can do much better than him on this slate as he comes off a few down games. Then we’ll need news on Porter Jr. and Green before we can really look into Eric Gordon and Armoni Brooks. From the Hornets, they’ll be without Miles Bridges, Cody Martin, and PJ Washington here, so I’m expecting Jalen McDaniels to get the start and gets a nice amount of minutes at the four. He makes a lot of sense as a value option in a nice matchup with a bad interior. LaMelo Ball also looks great here with a 29.1% usage rate and 1.55 fantasy points per minute with Bridges and Washington off the court this season. Kelly Oubre should have his minutes solidified as well and minutes are huge with him, I have no issue with him in any format. Then we can round this team out with Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier as secondary options in a great matchup that should be DFS gold.
5-star play: Christian Wood, LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Eric Gordon, Jalen McDaniels, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre Jr.
Deeper Value: Jalen McDaniels
GPP Sleeper: Jae’Sean Tate, Eric Gordon, Armoni Brooks, Mason Plumlee
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Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 208.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -5.5
Starting with Bulls, we got what we wanted yesterday with Coby White in the starting lineup… and he dudded in 33 minutes. I would expect he starts again here with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso out again, but man that was an ugly performance. He’s a solid GPP value on a slate where I would think we have safer value for cash games. Zach LaVine returned last night to play 33 minutes, so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited going forward. Both LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are fine options on this slate. Nikola Vucevic had a massive game last night against the Pacers and would be someone who I would consider more of a secondary option here. Lastly, I would think Javonte Green continues to start and makes for a solid value option as well, but not the sexiest option there is. From the Hawks, they got Clint Capela back last time out but have since lost John Collins to health and safety protocols. I would think they just shift around the starting lineup and go a little smaller with Reddish or a longer wing at the four in his place, I wouldn’t expect Gorgui Dieng starts at the four, so let’s forget that idea. Delon Wright is going to start at point and play as many minutes he can handle. He’s not a huge usage guy or great from a production standpoint, but he’s going to play a ton of minutes but looked great last time out. Cam Reddish’s price has come up a good amount over the past few games but he’s going to play a ton of minutes and has a 29.2% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past week with all these Hawks sidelined. Lastly, Bogdan Bogdanovic was a guy I pivoted to from Wright on the Christmas slate and it didn’t end up working. He just shot poorly but it was great to see him get 36 minutes. I’m going to like him again in this spot.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, Clint Capela, Delon Wright, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish
Deeper Value: Coby White, Javonte Green
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Gorgui Dieng, Skylar Mays
Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.0
Starting with the Celtics, it sounds like Al Horford will return for this one after missing about two weeks now. I’ll want confirmation that he won’t be limited at all, if that’s the case I do like this spot for him and Robert Williams as I continue to target bigs against the Wolves. I’ve been all over Williams over the past few games, and I may go right back to him even with Horford back. Enes Freedom being out solidifies his minutes a good amount and he’s a great per-minute producer. Jayson Tatum looks like a great option here as well if we can find the value to fit him in, but this is an awesome matchup for the Celtics in all areas. Jaylen Brown looks like he’s found his footing and has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight and a guy I like in this spot. Marcus Smart looked pretty good filling in for Dennis Schroder last time out and a guy I like going back to at this price tag. From the Wolves, they’re going to be without their starting five here, so it’s going to be a mix and match of who all gets the start. My assumption would be we get a starting lineup similar to Beverley, Beasley, Okogie, McDaniels, and Nathan Knight to close out the five. Knight looks like a nice value option but the rest of these guys are already priced up with the Wolves being shorthanded for a few games already. Jaden McDaniels has at least 29 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and looks like a tournament option. Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley will likely be my favorite options here, they should run this offense and both will play a bunch of minutes. That being said, Beverley does come in questionable due to conditioning so maybe he doesn’t see all the minutes he might have otherwise.
*** UPDATE – Right as I hit publish we get news that Jayson Tatum has entered the health and safety protocols… with him out I would expect a boost for guys like Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, and Robert Williams. That being said, come join us as a VIP member to get the full breakdown on this team with Tatum out. ***
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Malik Beasley
4-star play: Al Horford, Robert Williams, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Jaden McDaniels, Nathan Knight, Patrick Beverley
Deeper Value: Nathan Knight
GPP Sleeper: Robert Williams, Al Horford, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Utah -6.5
Starting with the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell will miss this game which will open up a ton for guys in this backcourt. Below is how this team operates with Mitchell off the court this season:
- Rudy Gobert – 18.2% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
- Jordan Clarkson – 31.1% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Joe Ingles – 14.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Mike Conley – 20.1% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Bojan Bogdanovic – 26.8% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
I would expect Joe Ingles to slide into the starting lineup in Mitchell’s place and looks like a great value option on this slate and someone I’ll have a bunch of every time he gets into the starting lineup. I do like getting Clarkson off the bench as well, but these guys look underpriced any time someone gets ruled out, so take advantage of the Jazz here in a nice matchup with the Spurs. Speaking of the Spurs, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray again here so they’ll need more minutes from guys like Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell, maybe even a little Keita Bates-Diop. Derrick White has a 22.6% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute with Murray off the court this season and looks like a solid secondary option here. Keldon Johnson has been in great form as of late and actually showing some consistency which is new for him. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in five straight games and someone I like with Murray out as well. Then we can round this team out with Jakob Poeltl in a tough matchup with Rudy Gobert down low, he’s more of a GPP center option for me.
5-star play: Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles, Lonnie Walker
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell, Keita Bates-Diop, Jakob Poeltl
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -8.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton here meaning we should see more minutes for guys like John Konchar who had a great night again last night and looks like a solid value option here. I would think he gets the start again here. Ja Morant’s price tag feels a bit too high for me but we know the ceiling is there for him, so more of a tournament guy for me. Jaren Jackson was on his way to a massive game against the Kings but couldn’t hit a shot, as he went 1-8 from three-point range and 5-18 from the field. I have no issue with going right back to him here. Desmond Bane continues to look good at a nice price tag, he’s a nice secondary option in all formats. Then we can round this slate out with Kyle Anderson and Steven Adams as secondary tournament options here. From the Suns, I’ll have no issue getting to Chris Paul or Devin Booker but it’s always tough for me to prioritize either of them when they’re both healthy. Deandre Ayton continues to look great and is a guy I like as a cash option here. Mikal Bridges isn’t a fun DFS roster, but if you happened to land on him he’s not a bad option by any means and will play big minutes. Then we can round this team out with Cameron Johnson who gets his minutes solidified with Jae Crowder now out as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Ja Morant, John Konchar, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
Deeper Value: John Konchar
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Steven Adams, Cameron Johnson, Mikal Brides
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 212.5
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. again here. Kristaps Porzingis looks like a nice option here but the price tag is scary, he has a 34.1% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute with these two off the court this season. Jalen Brunson will be the other guy I continue to get to as well, he’s going to play a ton of minutes and has a 27.7% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute with Luka and Hardaway off the court this season. Dorian Finney-Smith continues to look good as well and playing all the minutes he can handle, he makes sense as a secondary option here. Then guys like Sterling Brown and Frank Ntilikina are going to keep playing massive minutes with the Mavs being shorthanded, they both look like solid value options. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard comes in questionable but they’ll be without Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington, and Dennis Smith Jr. here. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Lillard’s status in this one but if he plays he should handle all the usage and looks good here. I would expect the Blazers go somewhat small and start Larry Nance Jr. at center in place of Nurkic and looks like a great option here against a pretty weak defense. The same can be said for Nassir Little as well, both of these guys will need to play big minutes. I don’t hate getting to Anfernee Simons off the bench either, if they’re active tonight I would expect a good amount of minutes. That being said, you won’t catch me playing Tony Snell… ever. We can round this team out with Norman Powell as a nice tournament option as well.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard
4-star play: Dorian Finney-Smith, Sterling Brown, Frank Ntilikina, Larry Nance Jr., Nassir Little, Norman Powell
Deeper Value: Sterling Brown, Frank Ntilikina
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons
Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -4.0
Starting with the Nets, they got James Harden back last game and he played 39 minutes on his way to 70+ fantasy points. He’s an elite option in all formats again here, it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward. He has a 38.2% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute with Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge off the court this season. Patty Mills will continue to play big minutes and play a big role on this team and will be a guy I get some exposure to here as well. Blake Griffin saw his minutes disappear last time out as this frontcourt gets a bit healthier, he’s a fade moving forward for me unless he’s starting. Nicolas Claxton returned last game as well to play 32 minutes and will be a guy I go right back to in this spot, he produced well in his minutes last time out. Then DeAndre’ Bembry and Brue Brown both looked good last time out as well and make for fine value options. From the Clippers, they’ll be without Paul George and Reggie Jackson again and we saw Eric Bledsoe look great last night with a 50 burger. Bledsoe has seen at least 36 minutes in back-to-back games and is a great option as long as these minutes continue to be there. The same can be said for Terance Mann who looked great last night as well. Then we can round out the slate with the Clippers frontcourt, Ivica Zubac looked great last night against Jokic down low and gets a much better matchup here. Then Serge Ibaka is a fine GPP dart for value, he’s not going to play a ton of minutes but has been a nice per minute guy when he’s out there.
5-star play: James Harden
4-star play: Patty Mills, Nicolas Claxton, Eric Bledsoe, Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: DeAndre’ Bembry, Serge Ibaka
GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, DeAndre’ Bembry, Serge Ibaka
NBA Lock of the Day: Joe Ingles (DK – $3.7k; FD – $4.2k)
JINGLES! Any time we can get Joe Ingles in the starting lineup I’ll have interest and I would expect that to be the case tonight with Donovan Mitchell out. With Mitchell off the court this season Ingles has a 14.8% usage rate and 0.83 fantasy points per minute. The usage rate won’t jump out at you but minutes are key for him and with Mitchell out they become pretty solidified. He makes for a great option at a cheap price tag tonight. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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