Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/25:
Dec 13, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots during the second half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 211.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -5.5
First off, Merry Christmas and happy holidays! Hopefully everyone gets a chance to see some family, eat some food, and maybe watch a little bit of basketball. I’ll be headed to Lambeau Field to watch the Packers and sweat out this NBA slate, so let’s get’er started! We start off with the Hawks who are going to be without their main pieces again, but we’re used to this rotation by now. Delon Wright is going to start at point and play as many minutes he can handle. He’s not a huge usage guy or great from a production standpoint, but when he’s going to play that many minutes, he’s viable in all formats. John Collins came crashing down to Earth last time out in a tough matchup with the Sixers, this is a nice bounce-back spot for him and a guy I like going back to at this price tag. Cam Reddish’s price has skyrocketed over the past few games but he’s going to play a ton of minutes and has a 29.2% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past week with all these Hawks sidelined. Lastly, Bogdan Bogdanovic got his minutes up to 28 last time out, I would think he gets those over 30 in this spot and would be a guy I like pivoting to for cheaper off of Wright if I can for a little leverage. From the Knicks, Derrick Rose will be out here but it sounds like RJ Barrett will come in as questionable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Julius Randle hasn’t been in the best form as of late and is priced up on DraftKings, I would get my exposure to him on FanDuel where he’s under $9k. Alec Burks has bounced back nicely after a few rough games, he has at least 34 DraftKings points in two of his last three and is going to play as many minutes as he can handle here. Kemba Walker went completely bonkers last time out with 70 DraftKings points which gives him at least 41 fantasy points in three straight games. Assuming Barrett plays, I’m thinking he just slides into the Derrick Rose role, but if Barrett is out, you can go right back to the well on him pretty confidently. Evan Fournier is a stiff… no pun intended, but man if he’s not hitting his shots he’s a rough time to watch. He’s still a fine secondary option due to the minutes he’ll play, however. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson isn’t a guy that I’ll have as a priority but he’s good for a 30-40 point fantasy night every few games and will be a guy I have some exposure to on this slate.
5-star play: John Collins, Cam Reddish, Kemba Walker, Julius Randle (FanDuel)
4-star play: Delon Wright, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Julius Randle (DraftKings), Evan Fournier
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson
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Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -3.0
Starting with Boston, both Al Horford and Marcus Smart come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding their status. I’ll operate under the assumption that Smart is in and Horford is out due to how the Celtics have played lately. Jayson Tatum is averaging 55.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks this season, obviously, that’s aided by Brown missing some games but still a guy I think you can get some exposure to on this slate. Jaylen Brown looks like he’s found his footing and has at least 40 DraftKings points in three straight and a guy I like in this spot. Robert Williams will be a guy I like quite a bit especially if Horford sits. With Enes Freedom out it really locks in his minutes as he’s seen at least 29 minutes in three straight. He’s a big point per minute guy, so minutes are key for him and he dropped a 50 burger last time out, keep an eye on that Freedom news. Then we can round out the Celtics with Dennis Schroder who is more of a fade than anything for me due to the form he’s been in since Brown has started kicking it in gear a bit. From the Bucks, it sounds like they’ll get Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis back at the very least with a chance of getting Donte DiVincenzo back. Giannis officially comes in as questionable, but I don’t think he’s going to miss a Christmas day game, but watch the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him and DiVincenzo. It will be interesting to see if all three of these guys are full go’s as we’ve seen some of these Covid guys come in with some conditioning issues, so that’s the other thing I’ll be looking for. If we assume Giannis is a full go, he’s an elite option on this slate. The tough part will be what to do with the rest of this team and I think Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are a bit outpriced for me with these guys back, but still guys you can get to from a GPPs standpoint. I don’t know that I’ll be paying this price tag for DeMarcus Cousins either, he should slide back to his bench role with Portis back in the starting lineup, but I do think he’s earned a few more minutes. Then we can round this team out with Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen as GPP options.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Robert Williams, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: George Hill
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -6.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry is going to be right up there with Giannis and these guys as the top raw option on the slate, he’s not a guy I’ll be talking anyone off of here. Draymond Green has been in good form as of late and is a guy I like getting exposure to in this spot again. The rest of this team is tough due to how shorthanded they’ve been, but we saw Gary Payton get 30 minutes last game and would expect more of the same here, he’s a great option at this price tag. Otto Porter Jr. has played a good amount of minutes as well and has at least 34 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Then guys like Nemanja Bjelica, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Kevon Looney are all solid tournament pieces to round out the Warriors. From the Suns, they come into this game pretty healthy and are always a tough team to go all that heavy on when they have their full rotation because they spread so thin. That said, Devin Booker and Chris Paul are both solid secondary options and I would be okay with whatever exposure I get to them on this slate. Deandre Ayton is averaging 42.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Warriors this season and a guy I have no issue going back to here. I always like to make sure we’ve seen the production from a big man earlier in the season against the Warriors due to how weird they play big men, they’ve been able to run some off the court, but I like Ayton here. We kind of know the deal with Mikal Bridges by now, he’s going to play a good amount of minutes and likely be in the 20-30 fantasy point range. Not a priority, but I would be okay with whatever exposure I get to on him as well. Cam Johnson continues to play well, but I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 5-5 from three-point range again like he did last time out. Then we can round out the Suns with Cameron Payne and Jae Crowder as GPP options.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Draymond Green, Otto Porter Jr., Gary Payton, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: Otto Porter Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Nemanja Bjelica, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Kevon Looney, Cam Johnson, Cameron Payne, Jae Crowder
Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -1.0
Starting with the Nets, they’ll get James Harden, Jevon Carter, and Paul Millsap back here while they’ll lose Cam Thomas, Kessler Edwards, and David Duke to Covid protocols. It will be interesting to see what they do with Harden, as my thinking would be he would be somewhat limited due to conditioning, but I’m not sure they have the choice. I may just operate under the assumption that he plays around 30 minutes and go from there. That being said, he’s going to dominate usage while he’s out there and has a 37.4% usage rate and 1.5 fantasy points per minute with Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge off the court this season. Patty Mills will continue to play big minutes and play a big role on this team and will be a guy I get some exposure to here as well. The same can be said for Blake Griffin who has at least 31 DraftKings points in three straight. The Nets will get Nicolas Claxton back here as well, I would expect he gets the start at center and plays 20-25 minutes and makes for an interesting lower-end center option. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for the rest of this team and how minutes will rotate but with James Johnson, Bruce Brown, Paul Millsap, and DeAndre Bembry back they won’t be hurting as much for minutes. From the Lakers, they’ll continue to be without Anthony Davis here which will make LeBron James and Russell Westbrook look like nice options here. LeBron has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.44 fantasy points per minute with Davis off the court this season while Westbrook is at a 30% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute. I would expect Talen Horton-Tucker to continue to see big minutes and makes sense as a GPP guy even in the form that he’s in. Then the rest of this team will be more MME-type plays than anything for me.
5-star play: James Harden, LeBron James
4-star play: Patty Mills, Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Nicolas Claxton, Bruce Brown, DeAndre Bembry, Talen Horton-Tucker, Carmelo Anthony
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win earlier in the season. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Utah -12.5
Starting with the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic yet while Kristaps Porzingis comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to watch the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again, but obviously, news that we will need and likely won’t get until this afternoon, so you’ll have to take a stance somewhere. Jalen Brunson is going to continue to play big minutes and handle a big role in this team with Tim Hardaway Jr. also out, he’s a guy I like quite a bit at this price tag. Dorian Finney-Smith will play big minutes again here and has been pretty good as of late, I would be okay with him in all formats. Sterling Brown has played at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games and has at least 32 DraftKings points in each of those games, he’s a guy I like using for value again here. Then the Mavs will need backcourt minutes from guys like Theo Pinson and Frank Ntilikina, both looking like solid value options here. From Utah, they’re fully healthy… the two teams that are hard to get to when they’re fully healthy are the Jazz and the Suns, and figures they’re the only two teams that are at full strength today. That said, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert both look solid here against a shorthanded Mavs team. Mike Conley is about a point-per-minute guy and someone I wouldn’t have any issue getting to here with at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five. Then we can round this team and slate out with Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic as tournament plays while guys like Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles are more MME-type plays for me.
5-star play: Jalen Brunson
4-star play: Sterling Brown, Dorian Finney-Smith, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: Sterling Brown, Frank Ntilikina, Theo Pinson
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Joe Ingles
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.5
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George returned last time out to play 30 minutes and looked good in that time. I like going right back to him in an elite matchup with the Kings here. Reggie Jackson is simply outpriced right now on DraftKings, he’s a fade for me over there but in play for tournaments at the FanDuel price tag. Ivica Zubac would be the last real piece that I have interest in on this team, he gets a nice matchup with the Kings frontcourt. Then guys like Luke Kennard, Eric Bledsoe, and Marcus Morris are better suited for tournaments with Paul George back in the rotation. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox will continue to miss here while Richaun Holmes comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to watch the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. I’m going to continue to go back to the well on Tyrese Haliburton with Fox out, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks great. Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are solid options in all formats as well as they’ll continue to see big minutes while the Kings are shorthanded. We should continue to see Chimezie Metu start for this team and has been playing good ball as of late as well. Holmes being back may hurt his rebound equity slightly, but he’s still a guy I like here.
5-star play: Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Reggie Jackson (FanDuel), Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Chimezie Metu
Deeper Value: Maurice Harkless
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Luke Kennard, Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, Maurice Harkless
NBA Lock of the Day: (See the NBA Cheatsheets for My CORE PLAYS!)
I’m going to keep the lock of the day behind the paywall on this Christmas day, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
As always, watch Twitter for updates throughout the day, and stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!
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